Hopes for better days ahead for San Francisco. By Bernard Chan 6-30-23 希望舊金山未來的日子會更好

Dear Bernard: I live in US (Hawaii) for 50 years, last 16 years 1/4 time in Hawaii and 3/4 time in SF every month. I am seeing SF deteriorated in front of my eyes especially during the last 10 years. Hawaii has also deteriorated since 1990s, all major industries left except real estates for the riches from around the world and the military industrial complex spending billions each years as US 3rd island chain for the pending war with China. We have US-China groups monitoring US-China relations. US can no longer compete with China going forward.

We invited Forbes Magazine to discuss above problems at Hilton Hotel SF yesterday. Forbes will be sold to Chinese in HK, expect to close the deal later this year. According to the speakers, despite US tried desperately to contain China, it failing miserably.

CAAC video: Constructive Collaboration: Sustainability Trends in the US & China 舊金山華商會視頻: 建設性合作：美國和中國的可持續發展趨勢 6-29-23 https://johnsonwkchoi.com/2023/06/29/caac-video-constructive-collaboration-sustainability-trends-in-the-us-china/
https://rumble.com/v2x3jrf-caac-video-constructive-collaboration-sustainability-trends-in-the-us-and-c.html
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8eSdxeP/

SF and Hawaii problems are structural. It can’t be be fixed and won’t be fixed. We are expecting to continue to get worst in the coming months and years.

It has been a while since we last met almost 20 years ago at RHS when Father Xavier was alive.

I have enjoyed your newsletter as well as your articles at the SCMP.

I will be in HK Nov 5-19, but will missed the school’s 65 anniversary.

Johnson Choi
Class of 1973
(Hawai’i and SF)

Sent from my iPhone

On Jun 30, 2023, at 2:46 AM, Bernard Chan wrote:

Dear Friends,

I am pleased to attach my latest column in the SCMP, which appeared today (June 30).

As usual, I would be most interested to hear any comments you may have.

With best wishes,
Bernard Chan

SCMP Article
Bernard Chan

Hopes for better days ahead for San Francisco

As someone with many close friends in the United States, particularly in the state of California, I am saddened by recent media reports of the deterioration of San Francisco’s once-prestigious downtown district. I have a personal interest in the area and have maintained a home there for many years. Before pursuing my career in Hong Kong, I completed university in Los Angeles county and before that I attended high school in Pennsylvania. I have also remained closely involved with my alma mater.

It seems the problems in downtown San Francisco were exacerbated by factors that combined to create a perfect storm. The catalyst was the Covid-19 pandemic. Lockdowns, social-distancing measures and work-from-home policies kept people away, forcing many businesses to close or dramatically reduce their operations.

After the pandemic, many people did not return. Instead, they chose to continue to work from home for lifestyle reasons and convenience. This was particularly true of those in the tech sector.

Their sustained absence from the area has hindered its recovery and fuelled an escalation in office and retail vacancies, while poor transport infrastructure has resulted in serious traffic congestion, as residents opt to use their cars rather than take public transport, making the area even more unpleasant. A sluggish tourist market has also compounded the problems.

The impact on the area’s hotels, restaurants and other businesses that rely on pedestrian traffic and tourism has been immense. The recent announcement by Park Hotels and Resorts that it has stopped making mortgage repayments on its Hilton San Francisco Union Square and Parc 55 San Francisco – in effect pulling out of the two hotels – is a major blow and a reflection of a lack of confidence in the tourism sector. Combined, the properties account for almost 3,000 rooms.

By contrast, we have been fortunate in Hong Kong. People were keen to return to their offices and normal social interaction, and we are experiencing a revival in tourism.

Homelessness has long been a major factor underpinning the urban decay in downtown San Francisco; the city has one of the highest homeless rates in the country. Downtown San Francisco is the epicentre and the sight of people sleeping rough or living in makeshift structures is, sadly, far too common. Drug abuse is often visible and residents simply do not leave any items inside their cars for fear of theft.

Many people believe the introduction of Proposition 47, also known as the Safe Neighbourhoods and Schools Act and passed by referendum in 2014, paved the way for an increase in petty and organised crime. Certain felony offences were recategorised as misdemeanours, which were less severely punished.

The divide between the haves and have-nots appears to be increasing and high crime rates have propelled an exodus of commercial and retail tenants, along with major shopping centre operator Westfield, exacerbating the urban decay. Many retailers are citing local conditions and employee safety as primary reasons for closure after a spate of attacks on staff by shoplifters, and decreasing footfall. It is widely believed that many smaller tenants are waiting for their leases to expire and are unlikely to renew. The neighbourhood seems set to continue on its downward spiral.

But we must not lose sight of the fact that San Francisco has a history of reinventing itself, and economic recovery is under way in most parts of the city. Mayor London Breed has acknowledged downtown’s challenges. Earlier this year, she outlined her five priorities to redefine, reimagine and revitalise the area: to provide an economically diverse and resilient job engine, a welcoming, clean and safe environment, a dynamic destination active at all hours, every day, a world-class transport experience, and an equitable economy that supports full participation by all.

Time will tell if the mayor can deliver on her priorities, with adequate funding and appropriate policies for the revival of this once-great district. It will be in the global media spotlight in November during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit, which leaders, including from China, are expected to attend at a venue within a short walk of the area. Hopefully, there will be early and visible signs of progress that breathe new life and energy into the district before then, so it can once more make a meaningful contribution to the lives of San Franciscans and tourists alike.

香港經濟日報文章

陳智思

多重夾擊 三藩市中心難復繁華

我有不少好友居於美國，尤其是加州，因此當我看到近期不少主流媒體廣泛報道，昔日繁華的三藩市市中心，現在市面變得蕭條，特別是治安惡化，不免感到可惜。我在三藩市市中心有一個住宅單位，自己對該區也有很多回憶，年輕時我在加州讀書，先在賓夕法尼亞州讀高中，之後在洛杉磯完成大學課程，畢業後亦一直與母校保持密切聯繫。

各種因素加劇了三藩市市中心區目前的問題，漸漸形成一場完美風暴。當然，疫情起了催化作用，禁足、社交距離措施、在家工作等政策，導致商戶生意大減，許多企業要大幅減少營業甚至關閉；有些人選擇離開這區，不再回去，而不少上班族，特別是科技行業人士，為了生活更便利及優質，選擇疫情後繼續在家工作。

上班族的減少，窒礙了該區復甦步伐，也令寫字樓和商店空置率上升，而欠缺好的公共交通網絡，也令市民過度倚賴私家車，加劇了路面交通擠塞問題，使當地生活變得更不好過；再加上旅遊業低迷，都加劇了問題。

依靠人流和旅遊業的酒店、餐飲和其他企業，受到很大影響。三藩市聯合廣場希爾頓酒店和Parc 55酒店合共擁有近3,000間客房，擁有這兩間酒店的房產信託基金Park Hotels & Resorts，早前已停止償還貸款，反映出市場對當地旅遊業缺乏信心。

相比之下，香港較為幸運，大多數上班族已返回辦公室工作，市民進行正常的社交互動，我們的旅遊業亦漸漸復甦起來。

長久以來，無家者乃其中一個三藩市要處理的問題。該市是全美最多無家者的城市之一，市中心的情況尤為嚴重，無家者露宿街頭，又或住在臨時搭建、湊合的地方甚為常見；濫藥現象也屢見不鮮，居民亦不會在車內留下任何物品，以免被賊人偷去。不少人歸咎加州於2014年通過、不少人稱之為「安全社區和學校法」（The Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act）的47號公投法案，乃導致罪案上升、治安轉差的罪魁禍首，該法案把一些重罪改為輕罪，刑罰隨之減輕。

社會愈來愈分化，上層與低下階層的市民距離愈來愈遠；高犯罪率進一步促使企業和零售商戶的撤離，令當區變得更蕭條。據報購物商場管理集團Westfield決定，放棄位於三藩市的Westfield San Francisco Centre購物中心，將之交還給貸款商。商店竊賊襲擊員工事件時有發生，加上顧客數目減少，許多零售商指出，當地情況和員工安全是關閉店舖的主要原因，不少人相信，很多小租戶正等待租約期滿後不再續約。如此看來，該區的營商情況似乎會繼續走下波。

然而，我們不可忽視三藩市過往曾經歷不景氣亦能重新發展的歷史，該市其他地區的經濟正慢慢復甦。三藩市市長布里德（London Breed）承認市中心所面對的問題，她早前概述了5個優先事項，包括促進多元經濟推動就業、打造清潔和安全的城市環境、具活力旅遊地點、世界一流的交通體驗、支持每個人參與公平經濟。

相信時間和歷史將會告訴我們，三藩市市長的政策會否成功讓曾是繁榮的三藩市，回復昔日光輝。亞太經濟合作組織峰會將於11月在三藩市舉行，到時該市會成為全球焦點，多個成員國家包括中國的領導人也會出席，而香港也是一員，希望三藩市市面會有明顯改善，社區會重新注入新活力，讓居民和旅客樂意到訪。