FT: Joseph Nye: I’ve seen worse. Deep state eminence grise says it ain’t so bad for America 深層國家顯赫人物表示這對美國來說並沒有那麼糟糕
Joseph Nye is considered one of the most important and influential thinkers in modern politics and IR. According to his bio at Harvard, he is considered “the most influential scholar on US foreign policy”. He is responsible for key shifts in IR, such as the “Nye Pivot”: the valorization of security relations over economics (for example, with Japan), which formed the foundation for the Pivot to Asia–of which he has been a cheerleader–, and the concept of “soft power”. He also mentored a generation of powerful politicians and scholars.
Nye gives five reasons why the US will not necessarily be eclipsed by China: geography and friendly neighbours; domestic energy supplies; the dollar-based financial system; demographics; and tech leadership.
But Nye doesn’t seem to realize that China is building out sustainable energy like nobody’s business; that the dollar as a reserve currency is imperiled, that US tech leadership is no longer assured–it has already been surpassed by China in manifold domains. China is building out a network of friendly states through the BRI and US demographics are uncertain.
“From a strategic point, it’s equally mistaken to underestimate and overestimate your opponent. And right now what’s popular in Washington is overestimation [of China].” He identifies not with the hawks (who, he argues, overestimate the Chinese threat), or the doves (who underestimate it), but as an “owl”. War between China and the US is not probable, he argues.
This is an unguarded statement: he acknowledges China as an opponent, an adversary. He doesn’t say what China has done to merit being treated as one. What Nye won’t acknowledge is that he and his fellow travellers placed China into that role, not because of anything China has done, but because of what it hasn’t: it refused to stay in its place and remain subservient to the US imperial order: it committed the unforgivable crime of refusing to remain a tenant farmer on the US plantation. Underlying this assumption is his belief in western supremacy and hegemony.
War is not probable, he also says, as he seeks constantly to persuade the Chinese to disarm–most recently in Beijing–while encouraging the US to militarize and relate to China as a threat. Campbell also mentored the arch-hawk architect of China containment, Kurt Campbell,
But he argues that China, despite 20 years of investing in Confucius Institutes to promote its perspectives, lags behind on soft power too. “Pew polls show the US is more attractive than China to other countries in Asia and in Latin America, Australia and Europe.
“Why is China unpopular in its own region? Because it is seen as a threat. It’s very difficult to develop soft power in New Delhi by establishing a Confucius Institute if your troops are killing Indian troops on the Himalayan border.
First, China has been unbelievably tolerant of India, tolerating incursions into its own territory (based on British colonial claims). When he says “China is a threat”, he means, “China is uppity”. And he seems to have forgotten that the US (whom he thinks of as the apex of soft power) has been a non-stop killing machine since its inception.
Joseph Nye also thinks the US (actually he) invented soft power and that China doesn’t have it. He says this as he writes on Chinese-invented paper, reads Chinese-invented printed books, eats off of Chinese-invented porcelain, eats Chinese-invented sauces, pasta, ice cream, foods, and teaches in an (ostensibly) academic institution influenced by Chinese ideas of meritocracy.
Such is the deep, profound wisdom of our intellectual elite.
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