Regarding to the article Kirill Babaev: Here’s why the result of Taiwan’s election is bad news for the US.

https://www.rt.com/news/591996-taiwan-election-us-china/

Comment by Professor John Walsh, MD, San Francisco on Feb 7 2024 as follow:

I am not sure whether I would agree with all of what he says, but some offers new insights: The author, as a smart PhD, should state the obvious. All Taiwan election results are bad for the US.

Once again, I will say something not echoing media platitudes. China is, in fact, conducting long-term strategic actions to weaken the hegemon, which will eventually collapse by exhaustion. This strategy has been applied many times in China’s history, and as a history lover, I will illustrate with one example, the war between Chu and Wu during the Spring and Autumn Era (771 – 476 BCE). This was the early Zhou feudal era when historians began recording state annals. Chinese annals in those days were known as Spring and Autumn, meaning a year. It came from the Shang, Chinese civilization’s progenitor, who did not have summer and winter seasons so spring and autumn represented a year.

Near the end of this era, the barbarian (culturally and linguistically non-Chinese) state of Chu in the south along the middle part of the Yangzi River became a behemoth. After making a strong matrimonial alliance with Qin in the northwest, which lasted until Qin Shihuang unified China, Chu threatened and made war on every state in the north while encroaching and swallowing small states to its east. The last bulwark against Chu’s eastern expansion to the Pacific coast was Wu, a small barbarian state centered around Suzhou to the west of Shanghai. Chinese annals recorded that Wu natives shaved their heads and tattooed their bodies, decidedly non-Chinese practices.

At the time, Chu had subjugated many small tribes and states between themselves and Wu, creating a buffer zone as well as a launch pad for future wars against Wu. When looking at this behemoth state of Chu with a hundred times the power of this small state of Wu living on the plains of Huai River, it would appear that Wu’s fate was sealed. Instead, over two generations, Wu would not only survive but defeat Chu in every battle, eventually capturing Chu’s capital.

One of Wu’s strategies was to light up endless fires in the buffer zone. Chu could not maintain its hegemony without reacting. Each time there was trouble, Chu had to send its army over long distances across mountainous areas, and each time Wu would withdraw into a defensive position nearby. When the Chu army, being tired, far from home and uncertain of their vassals’ loyalty, decided to retreat, the Wu army would ambush them and cause further damage. Thus, Wu, at very little cost, exhausted Chu (疲于奔命) and eventually defeated them.

The history of the Chu and Wu conflict is a much bigger story, but this illustrates how a big, hegemonic country with its fingers in every pie can be weakened from exhaustion caused by endless small fires. Knowing this, I’m not surprised that China is not using its weight to put out small fires. All this talk of China helping America cool things down in the Middle East or West Asia is just wishful thinking.

Another thing that China definitely should be aware of and which I have always averred, the US and Japan will not intervene militarily should the PLA decide to land in Taiwan. Chang Ya-chung, the deep blue KMT member who advocates immediate negotiations with China for peaceful reunification, said as much in a recent interview. In short, “Stop dreaming anyone will come and rescue us in a war with mainland China. If there is war, Taiwan will be destroyed like Ukraine. I guarantee not a single GI will die for you. Why not? Because their opponent will be the PRC, a well-armed nuclear state, America is not that stupid. They will tell you all kinds of rubbish to sell arms and use you as a proxy. They will use you, the Taiwanese people, as a pawn and sacrifice you in a heartbeat. So you better wake up and do what’s best for Taiwan and its people.” For all pols and pundits who paint Chang as a red communist trojan horse, he welcomes holding a public debate, but no one wants to take him up on the challenge. No one wants that debate lest people learn the bitter truth. Chang, as the principal of Dr. Sun College is well respected as an educator and well-liked by young Taiwanese. These well-educated young voters are not stupid. They voted en mass for Ko because they’re disillusioned with the corrupt KMT led by a scumbag who appointed an unwinnable nonentity as the presidential candidate.