Today, the world is changing at an incredible speed with the East rising and the West declining fast. Why? 今天世界東升西降之快令人難以置信，為什麼？

As an important feature of the evolution of the international pattern in recent years, the speed of development of “the rise of the East and the decline of the West” has indeed attracted global attention. There are multiple structural factors for the acceleration of this phenomenon. We can conduct in-depth analysis through three dimensions: the reconstruction of the global industrial division of labor, the generational gap of technological revolution, and the resonance of the civilization cycle law:

1. Topological reconstruction of the global value chain

The “center-edge” industrial system established in the post-Cold War period is undergoing a disruptive reorganization. The completeness of the entire industrial chain of China’s manufacturing industry (41 major industrial categories, 207 medium categories, and 666 small categories) has formed a unique siphon effect. In 2023, the added value of high-tech manufacturing will account for 15.7% of the industrial output above designated size. This reconstruction produces three levels of effects:

• Technology Leap Layer: 5G patents account for 38% of the world’s technology accumulation, and new energy vehicle patents account for 70% of the world’s technology accumulation, which promotes the eastward shift of industrial standard setting rights
• Factor Reorganization Layer: ASEAN takes over the low-end production capacity to form a “second production line”, and forms a new goose formation model with the East Asian technology center
• Currency Anchor Layer: The proportion of cross-border RMB settlement has risen to 49% (SWIFT data), and the RMB pricing of commodities has exceeded 12%

2. Paradigm fault in the era of digital civilization

The East and the West have formed generational differences in digital transformation, which are reflected in three key areas:

1. Data production factorization: China’s data output has an average annual growth rate of 30%, and will account for 27.8% of the world in 2025 (IDC forecast), and the data factor market valuation will reach 5 trillion
2. AI ethical framework competition: The governance paradigm of the Western “precautionary principle” and the Eastern “development first” is divided, resulting in a difference in the speed of technology implementation
3. Metaverse infrastructure gap: China has built 3.189 million 5G base stations, accounting for 60% of the world, and has more than 50 digital twin city pilots

3. Resonance superposition of civilization cycles

Toynbee’s civilization challenge-response theory presents a special superposition state in the contemporary era:

• Technology long wave cycle: The window period of the sixth technological revolution (AI+quantum+biology) and the hollowing out of Western industries form a time and space mismatch
• Financial hegemony cycle: The diminishing marginal utility of the US dollar credit system and the digital currency revolution form a hedge
• Geo-civilization cycle: The revival of land power and the contraction of sea power are accelerating under the framework of the “Belt and Road”

This multiple cycle resonance produces a historic turning point effect: while the West is still dealing with the institutional sequelae of the 2008 financial crisis, the East has completed the infrastructure positioning in the new round of technological revolution. The Global Innovation Index shows that the Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou cluster has ranked second in the global technology cluster for three consecutive years, and Shanghai and Beijing are ranked fifth and seventh respectively.

It is worth noting that this situation is not equivalent to a simple transfer of power. The “hybrid civilization” theory proposed by Professor Zheng Yongnian of the National University of Singapore points out that the modernization path of Eastern countries is creating a new civilization form, which is characterized by:

• The embedded combination of digital governance and traditional ethics
• The synergy of super-large-scale markets and new national systems
• The innovative practice of a community with a shared future for mankind and multilateralism

The evolution speed of this civilization form has caused a systematic lag in the traditional international order adjustment mechanism based on industrial civilization. As the World Economic Forum’s “Global Risks Report 2023” points out, the adaptive reform speed of the global governance system lags behind geo-economic changes by about 7-10 years.

The key variable in the next decade is the struggle for control over the rate of technology diffusion. When China’s Starlink plan (GW constellation 12,992 satellites), quantum communication trunk lines, and controlled nuclear fusion devices (EAST achieves 403 seconds of operation) and other strategic technologies form a combination breakthrough, it may trigger the reconstruction of the global knowledge production system. This reconstruction will not only be a rise and fall in the total economic volume, but also a fundamental division in the path of civilization evolution.

“东升西降”作为近年来国际格局演变的重要特征，其发展速度确实引发全球关注。这种现象的加速存在多重结构性动因，我们可以通过全球产业分工重构、技术革命代际落差、文明周期律共振三个维度进行深度解析：

一、全球价值链的拓扑重构

后冷战时期建立的”中心-边缘”产业体系正在经历颠覆性重组。中国制造业全产业链的完备性（41个工业大类、207个中类、666个小类）形成独特的虹吸效应，2023年高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业比重达15.7%。这种重构产生三个层级效应：

• 技术跃迁层：5G专利占全球38%、新能源汽车专利占70%的技术积累，推动产业标准制定权东移
• 要素重组层：东盟承接中低端产能形成”第二生产线”，与东亚技术中枢构成新型雁阵模式
• 货币锚定层：跨境人民币结算占比升至49%（SWIFT数据），大宗商品人民币计价突破12%

二、数字文明时代的范式断层

东西方在数字化转型中形成代际差异，体现在三个关键领域：

1. 数据生产要素化：中国数据产量年均增速30%，2025年将占全球27.8%（IDC预测），数据要素市场估值达5万亿
2. AI伦理框架竞争：西方”预防性原则”与东方”发展优先”的治理范式分野，导致技术落地速度差
3. 元宇宙基建落差：中国建成5G基站318.9万个，占全球60%，数字孪生城市试点超50个

三、文明周期的共振叠加

汤因比的文明挑战-应战理论在当代呈现特殊叠加态：

• 技术长波周期：第六次技术革命（AI+量子+生物）窗口期与西方产业空心化形成时空错配
• 金融霸权周期：美元信用体系的边际效用递减与数字货币革命形成对冲
• 地缘文明周期：陆权复兴与海权收缩在”一带一路”框架下加速演进

这种多重周期共振产生历史性拐点效应：当西方仍在治理2008年金融危机的制度后遗症时，东方已在新一轮技术革命中完成基础设施卡位。全球创新指数显示，深圳-香港-广州集群连续三年居全球科技集群第二位，上海、北京分列第五、第七。

值得注意的是，这种态势并不等同于简单的权力转移。新加坡国立大学郑永年教授提出的”混合文明”理论指出，东方国家的现代化路径正在创造新的文明形态，其特点是：

• 数字治理与传统伦理的嵌入式结合
• 超大规模市场与新型举国体制的协同
• 人类命运共同体与多边主义的创新实践

这种文明形态的进化速度，使得传统基于工业文明的国际秩序调整机制出现系统性滞后。正如世界经济论坛《2023年全球风险报告》指出，全球治理体系的适应性改革速度较地缘经济变迁滞后约7-10年。

未来十年的关键变量在于技术扩散速率的控制权争夺。当中国的星链计划（GW星座12992颗卫星）、量子通信干线、可控核聚变装置（EAST实现403秒运行）等战略科技形成组合突破时，可能引发全球知识生产体系的重构。这种重构将不仅仅是经济总量的此消彼长，更是文明演进路径的根本性分野。