Historical Resilience: Why China is Positioned to Endure the Trade War. By Johnson Choi, Oct 24 2025

历史韧性：中国为何能在贸易战中屹立不倒. 作者：蔡永強2025年10月24日

The current trade tensions are not a novel challenge for China, but rather a modern iteration of a historical pattern it has navigated for millennia. During the Warring States Period (476-221 BC) and the Three Kingdoms Era (220-280 AD), rival states engaged in protracted struggles for dominance and survival. While these were internal conflicts, the strategic principles of endurance, alliance-building, and long-term planning are deeply embedded in China’s strategic psyche.

This resilience was further tempered during the “Century of Humiliation” beginning in 1840. For over 150 years, China faced significant external pressures but lacked the economic and military strength to counter Western hegemony effectively. Today, that is no longer the case.

Recent analyses, including my own on the decline of empires and the end of the petrodollar system, highlight a critical shift. These studies of history, when applied to current events, suggest that the United States is facing an inflection point reminiscent of past declining powers. I do not say this to demonize the U.S., but to state an observable fact: its unipolar moment is concluding. If not a full collapse, the U.S. may retreat into a posture of isolationism, similar to its stance from 1776 until the post-WWII era.

However, such a retreat would be far more feasible for the United States—or Russia—than for China. Both are continental powers capable of economic self-containment. China’s destiny has always been, and will always be, intertwined with global engagement. For centuries, its prosperity has been built on making friends and expanding trade. This is not a new strategy; it is the reactivation of its historical role as a central node in the global network of commerce, a position it is now reclaiming.

当前贸易摩擦对中国而言并非新挑战，而是其跨越数千年历史模式的现代重演。从战国时期（公元前476-221年）到三国时代（公元220-280年），各政权曾为生存与霸权展开长期博弈。这些虽属内部冲突，但其中蕴含的持久耐力、结盟智慧与长远谋划等战略原则，早已深植于中国的战略基因。

始于1840年的”百年国耻”进一步淬炼了这种韧性。在长达150余年的岁月里，中国承受着巨大外部压力，却因缺乏足够的经济军事实力而难以有效抗衡西方霸权。如今，这样的时代已然终结。

近期关于帝国衰落与石油美元体系终结的研究（包括本人的分析）均指向一个重大转折。将历史经验投射现实可知，美国正面临与昔日衰败帝国相似的拐点。此言并非刻意妖魔化美国，而是陈述客观事实：美国的单极时代正在落幕。即便不至全面崩溃，美国也可能退守孤立主义立场，回归其1776年立国至二战后的传统态势。

然而，与中国相比，此类战略收缩对美国或俄罗斯更具实施基础——两国皆为具备经济自给能力的陆权国家。而中国的命运始终与全球参与紧密相连。数百年来，中国的繁荣正是建立在广交朋友与拓展贸易的基础之上。这并非全新策略，而是重启其作为全球商业网络核心节点的历史角色，此刻中国正在重新夺回这一地位。