Has the U.S. Won the Trade War Against China? By Johnson Choi, President, Hong Kong.China.Hawaii Chamber of Commerce 美国赢了对华贸易战吗? – 香港·中国·夏威夷商会会长 蔡永強

If I say the U.S. has won the trade war against China, many Chinese in America would cheer for me. But should I lie just to gain their approval? Why does the idea of China winning seem to break their tender hearts?

Over the past 30 years—and especially in the last decade— I’ve lost many friends, classmates, and even distant relatives simply because I said I am Chinese. They unfriended me for telling the truth. Lately, some have even come to resent me more, because China appears to be winning the trade war.

To understand this emotion, you must see things from their perspective.

Thirty to fifty years ago, many who left China, Hong Kong, or Macau for the United States felt they had won a golden ticket. Some even paid between US$500,000 and US$1 million to secure American residency. They proudly told friends back home how special they were—showing off their newfound American privilege.

Once settled in the U.S., many became convinced that China’s best days were over. They believed China would one day collapse like the Soviet Union and eventually bow to become a vassal state of the United States. So they raised their children to speak perfect English but discouraged any connection to the Chinese language. To them, this was the only path to becoming a “true American.” Their children were expected to make friends with white Americans, not with new Chinese immigrants—unless those newcomers had significant wealth.

Then came 2018. The U.S. launched a trade war against China. At first, China seemed unprepared and was losing ground. Some of these overseas Chinese openly celebrated, telling patriotic Chinese in America that China should surrender because it could never match the U.S. They even warned that if China fought back, it would make life harder for Chinese people in America. In short, they wanted China to give in.

But to their disappointment—and disbelief—China didn’t collapse. China adapted, innovated, and began to win the trade war. The U.S., meanwhile, started to feel the strain. You could see the disappointment in their eyes. Their once-proud confidence faltered, especially as friends and relatives back in China began to do better financially and socially than they were in the United States.

To make matters worse, major Chinese companies—especially in technology and AI—are now hiring aggressively, offering salaries comparable to those in the U.S. But there’s one key requirement: fluency in Chinese. With the cost of living in China still 30–60% lower than in the U.S., such jobs offer a better quality of life. Ironically, the very parents who once thought it “smart” to forbid their children from learning Chinese now find that decision has backfired. Their children are locked out of opportunities in the fastest-growing economy in the world.

So, has the U.S. won the trade war against China?

Maybe the better question is: who really lost?

若我说美国赢了对华贸易战，在美的许多华人定会为我喝彩。可难道为了博取认同，我就该说谎吗？为何中国获胜的消息，竟会刺痛他们脆弱的心？

三十年来——尤其是最近这十年，仅因我自称中国人，便失去了许多朋友、同窗甚至远亲。他们因真相而与我断交。近来因中国逐渐赢得贸易战，有些人更对我心生怨怼。

要理解这种情绪，需站在他们的视角看问题。

三五十年前，离开中国内地、香港或澳门赴美的人，大多自以为抽中了“天命彩票”。有人甚至耗费50万至100万美元换取美国绿卡，得意地向故乡亲友炫耀自己跻身特权阶层。

定居美国后，他们深信中国气数已尽，认定中国会如苏联般解体，终将沦为美国附庸。因而他们培养子女说流利英语，却刻意切断与中文的联结。在他们看来，这是成为“真正美国人”的唯一途径——子女只该与白人交往，除非新移民家财万贯。

2018年贸易战伊始，中国看似措手不及。这些海外华人欢欣鼓舞，告诫在美爱国华人“中国毫无胜算，早该投降”，甚至威胁“中国反抗只会让在美华人处境更艰难”——他们巴望着中国俯首称臣。

然而令他们愕然的是，中国非但未崩溃，反而通过转型创新逐渐赢得贸易战。美国却渐显疲态。他们眼中的失落无处遁形，当留在故土的亲友在财富与社会地位上反超他们时，往日的优越感彻底崩塌。

更讽刺的是，中国科技与人工智能企业正以媲美美国的薪金大规模招聘，但核心要求是：精通中文。在中国生活成本比美国低30%-60%的现实中，这类岗位能提供更优渥的生活。当年禁止子女学中文的“明智之举”，如今却让孩子错失全球最具活力经济体的机遇。

所以，美国真的赢了贸易战吗？

或许更该问：究竟谁才是真正的输家？