Just as Jensen Huang expressed his desire to sell more chips to China, Trump poured cold water on the idea: the most advanced chips are banned from sale…黃仁勛剛說想多賣芯片給中國，特朗普就潑了盆冷水：最先進的芯片不準賣…

On November 2, Trump made it clear in an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes: not a single unit of NVIDIA’s newly mass-produced Blackwell chip is allowed to flow into China. This came even as Jensen Huang had just been smiling on the sidelines of APEC, saying he “hoped to sell someday.” The stinging slap left NVIDIA’s share of the AI chip market in China at zero. According to Huang’s own calculations for investors, this means a loss of $17 billion in annual revenue—equivalent to tossing the profits of a Shenzhen super factory into the Pacific.

The story dates back to August. At that time, Trump hinted that he “might” allow a watered-down version of Blackwell into China. Huang immediately had his engineering team reduce the chip’s computing power by 30%, thinking that “lowering the frequency would secure a pass.” However, on October 29, during a short trip on Air Force One, Trump changed his tune in front of reporters: “Technology that is a decade ahead must remain in the U.S.; other countries shouldn’t even think about it.”

As soon as these words landed, NVIDIA’s stock plummeted by 5% in after-hours trading, wiping out $200 billion in market value—a loss worse than three Intels combined. To add insult to injury, South Korea’s Samsung immediately secured an order for 260,000 fully-powered Blackwell chips, with the contract amount recorded in NVIDIA’s Q4 financial report, making it clear to the world: it’s not that there aren’t enough chips; it’s just that China isn’t getting them.

Why the sudden about-face? Trump himself revealed the reason in the CBS segment: the one-year “rare earths for tariffs” truce agreement recently signed between the U.S. and China only secured tariff reductions for agricultural products, with chips excluded from the list. Fearing backlash from China hawks in Congress, Trump decided to use Blackwell as a bargaining chip to secure votes.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Defense submitted a briefing to the White House, claiming that the Chinese military is using AI for missile trajectory prediction and is only a few computing power steps away from closing the gap. Cutting off Blackwell, they argued, could slow China down by “at least five years.”

Politicians are counting votes, the Pentagon is calculating strategic advantages, and NVIDIA is caught in the middle, becoming a cash cow—Trump even suggested that if they couldn’t hold back, they could sell the previous-generation H20 chips but would have to pay a 15% “protection fee” to the Treasury Department, a blatant shakedown.

What happens next? Several major domestic cloud providers have already gotten wind of the situation. Alibaba’s 2026 capital expenditure plan has cut its AI chip budget by 40%, redirecting all of it to its in-house Pingtouge “Hanguang” chips. Baidu’s Intelligent Cloud is set to deploy 30,000 units of Huawei’s Ascend 910B chips next quarter, which match the performance of the A100 but are 30% cheaper than Blackwell.

The most telling data comes from customs: in the first ten months of this year, exports of domestic AI accelerators increased by 2.6 times year-on-year, with Cambricon and Hygon collectively selling 5.2 billion yuan worth of chips, capturing half of the Southeast Asian and Latin American markets. Foreign media predict that by 2026, China’s AI chip localization rate will reach 55%, up from just 17% last year—a pace equivalent to covering five years of Europe’s progress in just one.

👉 Trump’s move may seem harsh, but it’s essentially handing domestic chips a “VIP fast pass.” While there’s still a technological gap, what the market values most isn’t blueprints but real-world scenarios. China boasts the world’s largest single data ecosystem, with short videos, e-commerce, and smart cities generating data 24/7—creating a never-ending “pressure-testing ground” for domestic chips.

👉 No matter how advanced Blackwell is, if it can’t enter China, it’s irrelevant. No matter how immature domestic chips are, daily use will drive their evolution. History has already shown this: when Google cut off Huawei’s GMS in 2019, HarmonyOS reached 700 million users within two years. Today’s storyline merely has a different protagonist, but the outcome is unlikely to be much different.

黃仁勛剛說想多賣芯片給中國，特朗普就潑了盆冷水：最先進的芯片不準賣…

11月2日，特朗普在CBS《60分鐘》里把話挑明：英偉達剛量產的Blackwell一顆也不許流向中國，哪怕黃仁勛前腳還在APEC場邊陪笑，說“希望有一天能賣”。這臉打得啪啪響，直接把英偉達在華AI芯片份額打到0，按黃仁勛自己給投資人的算法，一年少掙170億美元，相當於把一座深圳超級工廠的利潤扔進太平洋。

故事得從8月說起。那會兒特朗普放出口風，說“也許”允許閹割版Blackwell進來，黃仁勛連夜讓工程部把算力削30%，想着“降頻就能換通行證”。結果10月29日白宮一趟“空軍一號”短途飛行，特朗普對着記者改口：“領先十年的東西只能留在美國，別國想都別想”。

這話一落地，英偉達股價盤后跳水5%，市值蒸發2000億美元，比三個英特爾還慘。更尷尬的是，韓國三星當場拿到26萬顆滿血Blackwell訂單，合同金額寫進英偉達Q4財報，明晃晃告訴世界：不是芯片不夠，是就不給你中國。

為啥翻臉比翻書快？ CBS播出片段里特朗普自己露了底：中美剛簽的一年期“稀土換關稅”休戰協議，只換來農產品降稅，芯片不在清單；他怕國會裡的對華鷹派掀桌，乾脆拿Blackwell當禮物，穩住選票。

另一邊，美國防部給白宮遞了份簡報，說中國軍方正用AI做導彈軌跡預測，算力缺口只剩最後幾塊拼圖，只要Blackwell斷供，就能拖慢“至少五年”。

政客算的是選票，五角大樓算的是戰位，夾在中間的英偉達成了提款機——特朗普甚至放話，真憋不住可以賣上一代H20，但得給財政部抽15%“保護費”，明搶式分贓。

接下來會發生什麼？ 國內幾家頭部雲廠商已經拿到風聲，阿里2026年資本支出計劃把AI芯片預算砍了40%，全部轉給平頭哥“含光”；百度智能雲下季度要上線3萬顆華為昇騰910B，性能對標A100，價格比Blackwell低三成。

最硬核的數據來自海關：今年前十月國產AI加速器出口量同比翻2.6倍，寒武紀、海光加起來賣了52億元，已經把東南亞和拉美市場啃下一半。外電預測，2026年中國AI芯片本土化率會衝到55%，而去年才17%，這速度相當於一年走完歐洲五年的路。

👉特朗普這一棒看似兇狠，其實是給國產芯片送了一張“VIP快速通行證”。技術差距當然有，可市場最金貴的不是圖紙，而是場景——中國擁有全球最大單體數據圈，短視頻、電商、智慧城市24小時不間斷吐數據，等於給國產芯片搭了一個永不落幕的“壓力測試場”。

👉Blackwell再先進，進不來就是零；國產芯片再青澀，天天跑就是進化。歷史已經演過一次：2019年穀歌停掉華為GMS，兩年後鴻蒙用戶破7億。今天劇情只是換了個主角，結局不會差太多。