Foreign media reports that because the US, the US and EU are not safe—with the constant risk of asset seizure—Cambodia may become one of the first countries to store its gold in China… 外媒稱因為美國英國和歐洲並不安全, 除時有被沒收的風險，所以柬埔寨或將成首批在華儲存黃金的國家…

I think this is mainly due to two incidents that have significantly shaken Southeast Asian countries: first, the May 7th air combat. Our weapons outperformed European ones, and the September 3rd display showcased many advanced weapons that even the U.S. does not possess; second, the tariff war that began in April. We are the only economy that stands up to the U.S. and has pushed back so effectively that the U.S. is left frustrated.

Thus, it is quite clear that if there is a shift in global power between China and the U.S. in the future, Southeast Asia will be the first to become our sphere of influence. Southeast Asian countries need to reconsider their alignment.

Among the ten ASEAN nations, Myanmar has the most stable relationship with China. Although the Myanmar military has tolerated northern Myanmar and once publicly accused us of supporting ethnic armed groups, they have been smart enough not to take direct action. Instead, they quickly shifted to supporting us and actively cooperated in cracking down on telecom fraud. If we truly manage to eliminate U.S. influence in East Asia, Myanmar’s future looks promising.

Next is Laos, which has been quietly benefiting from the situation. It seems the second phase of the China-Laos railway is also promising. The risk for Laos lies in Vietnam’s influence over it.

Then there’s Thailand, which is known for its flexible stance, always aligning with the strongest power at the time. Although Thailand ousted Thaksin’s daughter, by preserving the Thaksin faction’s political participation and continuing to cooperate with us in combating telecom fraud, they have still earned our approval.

Malaysia comes next. Although there are disputes with us, they have maintained surface-level cooperation. As long as certain issues are not brought into the open, there is room for maneuver. Overall, we still hope to maintain good relations with Malaysia.

Brunei is the dividing line…

Vietnam falls slightly below average. In fact, Vietnam had the best starting point among the ASEAN nations. Last year, before Nguyen Phu Trong passed away, we granted Vietnam the status of a “China-Vietnam community with a shared future.” Looking back, if Vietnam had continued down the path of Nguyen Phu Trong’s policies, it could have achieved significant influence in Southeast Asia and even globally. Fortunately, Vietnam hasn’t strayed too far. If it returns to our side, the “China-Vietnam community with a shared future” can still be maintained.

Then there’s Cambodia. They always try to muddy the waters to gain some advantage, as seen in last year’s incident where the Tonle Sap Canal project was halted. Cambodia’s move to transport gold this time is actually an attempt to mend relations after a series of “missteps” that have caused a rift between our two countries. Given their apparent sincerity, we will consider their future actions, such as how they address the telecom fraud issue, which requires a proper explanation at some point.

Indonesia is a游离派 (wavering faction), trying to emulate the Middle Eastern monarchs by balancing on a tightrope. Currently, there are no direct conflicts of interest with us, but they are not particularly close either. For now, we don’t want to draw Indonesia too close; maintaining some distance allows Indonesia to play a more significant role.

外媒稱因為美國英國和歐洲並不安全, 除時有被沒收的風險，所以柬埔寨或將成首批在華儲存黃金的國家…

我在想，這應該主要是發生了兩件事對東南亞國家震動很大：一是57空戰。我們武器吊打歐洲武器，而且93展示了很多明顯美國都沒有的武器；二是自4月以來的關稅戰，我們是唯一一個不懼美國，還把美國頂得沒脾氣的經濟體。

所以很明顯，未來如果發生中美世界權力變更的話，東南亞地區將是首當其衝成為我們的自留地的，東南亞需要重新考慮站隊問題。

東盟十國中，在對華關係上最穩定的是緬甸。儘管緬甸軍方縱容緬北、曾經公開指責我們支持民地武，但還算聰明，沒有做出直接行動，而且很快就轉向為支持我們，積極配合我們打擊電詐。如果我們真的解決了美國在東亞地區的勢力存在，緬甸未來可期。

其次是老撾，一直悶聲發大財，看起來中老鐵路二線也是未來可期了，老撾的風險在於越南對老撾的影響力。

然後是泰國，泰國素以立場靈活而著稱，總是與當時最強大的一方站在一起。雖然泰國把他信的女兒趕下去了，但通過保持他信派的參政權，以及繼續配合我們打擊電詐的行動，還是獲得了我們的讚許的。

然後是馬來西亞。儘管與我們也有糾紛，但保持了檯面上的合作，有些事情只要不撕破臉，就還有迴轉的餘地，而且總體上我們還是希望和馬來西亞保持良好關係的。

文萊是分割線……

越南就稍微有點低於平均值了。其實越南的起點是東盟十國里最好的，去年阮仲富去世前，我們給予了越南“中越命運共同體”的地位，現在看過去，如果當時越南一直維持阮仲富的政策走下去，越南在未來的東南亞甚至是世界版圖上都是可以有一番作為的。還好，越南還沒有走得太遠，轉回到我們身邊的話還是可以維持“中越命運共同體”的。

然後就是柬埔寨。總想攪渾水撈點好處，所以才有去年崇南運河停工那事。柬埔寨這次運黃金來，其實還是為了挽回去年開始的一系列“騷操作”導致的中柬離心。看在這片孝心的份上，我們更多的考慮就看柬埔寨的表現了，比如柬埔寨電詐問題，是需要找個時間好好解釋一下的。

印尼是遊離派，想學中東王爺們在雞蛋上跳舞，目前跟我們沒有太直接的利益對立，但也不是很親。我們目前也不想把印尼拖得太近，保持一定距離可以發揮印尼更大的作用。