Japan’s political arena dropped a “small signal flare” yesterday… 日本政壇昨天丟出了一顆“小信號彈”…

According to Kyodo News on December 2, Yuko Obuchi, a heavyweight female lawmaker of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), made a special trip to the Chinese Embassy in Japan for a face-to-face meeting with Ambassador Wu Jianghao, during which she voluntarily expressed her wish to visit China. Given the current extremely tense state of China–Japan relations, this scene is highly noteworthy.

Many people may not be very familiar with the name “Yuko Obuchi,” but she is by no means an ordinary “decorative” politician. She is a genuine political powerhouse in Japan:

First, she comes from a political family. She is the daughter of former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and has been elected to the House of Representatives eight consecutive times. After many years cultivating her constituency, she has firm foundations and deep seniority. She is an “old face” in Japanese politics, not some newcomer.

Second, she currently serves as the LDP’s Director-General of the Organization and Campaign Headquarters. In simple terms, she is in charge of intra-party mobilization, grassroots organization, and the election front — a key figure in the party’s political machinery. The weight of this position is almost on par with the LDP’s most senior posts, such as Secretary-General, Policy Research Council Chair, General Council Chair, or Election Strategy Committee Chair. This is not a role an ordinary backbencher can compare to.

Third, Japanese media have long portrayed Yuko Obuchi as a “tough yet gentle” political strongwoman and one of the symbolic figures of women’s participation in Japanese politics. She has promoted multiple bills involving women’s rights and social welfare. Her image is steady and pragmatic, and combined with the halo of being a former prime minister’s daughter, she wields considerable influence both inside and outside the party.

Fourth—and this is the most important factor for China–Japan relations in this meeting—she serves as the Secretary-General of the Japan–China Parliamentary Friendship League. This means she doesn’t merely say Japan should value relations with China; she has long acted as a “communication window” in parliamentary diplomacy. And this time, she didn’t come alone—she brought several members of the League to visit Ambassador Wu Jianghao. This clearly carries the implication that she is “representing a segment of Japan’s political establishment.”

👉 From this perspective, Yuko Obuchi’s engagement with the Chinese side at this moment sends at least two signals:

(1) The LDP is not monolithic. Some within the party still hope to find a “bottom point” to stop further deterioration in the current tense situation.

(2) Japan’s ruling party realizes that if relations continue to worsen, it will harm Japan’s own diplomatic space, economic environment, and security outlook. Therefore, someone needs to step forward to “make contact, feel out the situation, and test the temperature.”

👉 However, China–Japan relations cannot be repaired by a single meeting or a smiling photo. Everyone knows the fuse that ignited the current tension—certain Japanese politicians, represented by Sanae Takaichi, have repeatedly made extremely wrong and provocative statements regarding major core interests such as Taiwan. These actions have severely damaged the already fragile political trust between China and Japan, pushing relations to the brink of near “rupture.”

In such circumstances, no matter how “friendly” or proactive Yuko Obuchi may be, it is impossible for her alone to reverse the overall situation. A more realistic interpretation is this: Japan understands very well where the problem lies, but for now is unwilling—or afraid—to directly adjust the hardline stance of the Takaichi faction. So they let a relatively moderate, influential politician approach China first, to probe China’s bottom line, gauge the public reaction, and create space for potential policy adjustments down the road.

👉 In fact, China’s position has already been stated with utmost clarity:

Those Japanese politicians must fundamentally correct their wrong words and actions, explicitly restate Japan’s solemn and clear stance on the Taiwan issue, and return to the correct track defined by the four political documents and the One-China principle. Only then can both sides have a realistic basis to talk about “repair” or “improvement.”

If Yuko Obuchi is truly sincere, her key role is not in “saying nice things for the media,” but in whether she can—after returning to Japan—convey China’s concerns, bottom lines, and conditions fully and accurately to Japan’s leadership, and push the Takaichi Cabinet to take concrete actions instead of continuing word games or diplomatic theatrics.

This visit is more like a “tentative knock on the door.”

Whether the door actually opens will not depend on how many pleasant words she says, but on whether the Japanese government is willing to make clear and responsible choices on the key issues that matter.

日本政壇昨天丟出了一顆“小信號彈”…

據日本共同社12月2日消息，自民黨重量級女議員小淵優子專程前往中國駐日大使館，與吳江浩大使面對面交流，還主動表達了“希望訪華”的意願。這一幕，放在當前中日關係高度緊張的大背景下，耐人尋味。

很多人也許對“小淵優子”這個名字不算熟，但她絕不是普通的“花瓶政客”，而是標準的日本政壇實力派：

其一，她出身政治世家，是前首相小淵惠三的女兒，自己則已經連續八次當選眾議院議員，在選區經營多年，根基穩、資歷深，屬於日本政壇的“老面孔”，而不是剛出道的新人。

其二，她現在在自民黨內擔任“組織運動本部長”，這個崗位說白了就是管黨內動員、基層組織和選舉戰線的關鍵人物。這個位置的分量，幾乎可以和幹事長、政調會長、總務會長、選舉對策委員長等最高層級並列看待，不是一般後排議員能比的。

其三，小淵優子長期被日本媒體塑造成“強硬但溫和”的政壇女強人，是日本女性參政的標誌性人物之一。她推動過多項涉及女性權益和社會保障的法案，形象相對穩重務實，再疊加“前首相之女”這一光環，讓她在黨內外都擁有不小的影響力和話語權。

其四，也是這次會面對中日關係最關鍵的一點——她擔任“日中友好議員聯盟事務局長”。這意味着，她不僅在檯面上說“要重視中日關係”，在議會外交層面也一直扮演“對華溝通窗口”的角色。這次她不是一個人上門，而是帶着聯盟中的部分議員一同拜訪吳江浩大使，明顯帶着“代表一部分日本政界力量”的意味。

👉從這個角度看，小淵優子此時出面與中方溝通，至少釋放出兩個信號：

（一）自民黨內部並非鐵板一塊，仍有人希望在當前的緊張局勢中尋找“止跌點”；

（二）日本執政黨意識到，如果繼續任由關係惡化，對日本自身的外交空間、經濟環境、安全局勢都不利，因此需要有人出來“接觸、探路、試溫”。

👉但話說回來，中日關係的問題，並不是一場會見、一次微笑合影就能解決的。矛盾的導火索，大家都很清楚——以高市早苗為代表的一些日本政客，在台灣等重大核心利益問題上屢屢發表極其錯誤、挑釁性的言論，嚴重衝擊中日之間本就脆弱的政治互信，把關係一步步推向近乎“斷裂”的邊緣。

在這種情況下，小淵優子再“友好”、再積極，也很難憑一己之力扭轉大局。更現實的可能是：日方深知問題出在哪，卻又暫時不想、或不敢直接調整高市早苗一系的強硬姿態，於是先讓一位對華形象相對溫和、在黨內有分量的人物出面，試探中方底線、評估輿論反應，同時為後續可能的政策微調預留空間。

👉事實上，中方立場已經講得極為清楚：

相關日本政客必須對其錯誤言行作出實質性糾正，明確重申在台灣問題上的嚴肅、明確立場，回到中日四個政治文件和一個中國原則的正確軌道上來，雙方才有談“修復、改善”的現實基礎。

如果小淵優子真有誠意，她的關鍵作用或許不在“說給媒體聽”，而在回國之後，能否把中方的關切、底線與條件完整地傳達到日本政府高層，推動高市內閣拿出實實在在的行動，而不是繼續玩文字遊戲和外交表演。

這次拜會，更多像是一記“試探性敲門”。門能不能真正打開，不取決於她說了多少漂亮話，而取決於日本政府接下來願不願意在關鍵問題上做出清晰、負責任的選擇。