Japan never imagined that its carefully-crafted scenario of a “Taiwan contingency” might, in the end, invite North Korean missiles…日本做夢都沒想到，自己精心推演的“台灣有事”，最後可能引來朝鮮的導彈…

What North Korea fears most is not China and Japan fighting, but the possibility that they won’t fight. The moment gunfire breaks out, Japan becomes Pyongyang’s best “punching bag.” North Korea lacks money, food, and technology — but one thing it certainly doesn’t lack is missiles intended to “wipe Japan off the map.”

Many people think North Korea’s hostility toward Japan has always been extreme, but a quick look at East Asia’s modern history shows that this hatred didn’t appear out of thin air. From 1910 to 1945, the Korean Peninsula was colonized by Japan for 35 years. Its resources were plundered, its people were enslaved, and countless families were destroyed under colonial oppression.

I once saw a North Korean elder interviewed in a documentary: his grandfather was beaten to death at the village gate for refusing to work as forced labor for the Japanese military. His mother, to protect him, hid in a cellar for three days and nights during a Japanese sweep operation, afraid to make a sound; she later suffered chronic asthma for the rest of her life. Wounds like these cannot be healed in just a few generations. Japan, to this day, has never given a truly meaningful apology, and even downplays its colonial history in school textbooks — a fact that keeps resentment alive in the hearts of North Koreans.

In recent years, Japan’s moves have pushed this resentment to a new peak. In order to support its so-called “Taiwan contingency” planning, Japan has been pushing constitutional revisions, expanding its military, increasing defense spending, and conducting joint exercises with the U.S., while deploying forces ever closer to North Korea. Last year, Japan announced that it would raise defense spending to 2% of GDP — the highest since WWII — and planned to acquire U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles, whose range covers all of North Korea. From Pyongyang’s perspective, this looks like the threat of past aggression returning once again.

North Korea’s economy is undeniably difficult. International sanctions strain its food and energy supplies, and its industrial technology lags behind—but it has never let go of missile development. According to public data, North Korea currently has nearly a thousand missiles of various types. The Hwasong-17 ICBM has a range of over 15,000 km, covering all of Japan, and the “Hwasong-2” hypersonic missile reportedly reaches Mach 10, making it nearly impossible for Japan’s missile defense systems to intercept.

North Korea’s eagerness for “gunfire to break out” stems from a desire to settle historical grievances through the changing situation. Pyongyang understands that if military conflict erupts in East Asia, Japan will inevitably intervene under its security laws — and that is the opportunity North Korea has been waiting for.

For decades, North Korea has been isolated by the international community. Its economic development is constrained, and its people live difficult lives. This long-suppressed pressure needs an outlet. Japan, as a historical enemy that continues to provoke, naturally becomes the prime target. Some say North Korea is simply “giving up” and acting recklessly, but from another perspective, a country wounded by history and squeezed by reality may see “toughness” as its only form of self-preservation.

Japan’s strategic planning has an obvious and fatal flaw: it has ignored North Korea’s presence. Obsessed with the Taiwan Strait and relying on the U.S. alliance, Japan believes it can control the situation — all while forgetting that just to the north stands a neighbor that considers Japan “enemy number one.”

Japan’s geography is inherently fragile: volcanic islands, frequent earthquakes, and densely populated coastal industrial zones. A missile strike could be catastrophic. Japan’s military may look strong, but it has clear weaknesses — limited strategic depth, gaps in missile defense, and a public with very low tolerance for war. If conflict truly erupts, Japan’s so-called “defense” may prove nothing more than wishful thinking.

👉 In reality, peace and stability in East Asia cannot be achieved through military simulations. If Japan genuinely wants security, it should not hype up a “Taiwan contingency,” nor escalate militarization. Instead, it should confront history honestly, offer genuine apologies to the countries it once invaded, and take concrete steps to repair relationships.

👉 North Korea’s toughness is, at its core, a desire for security and historical justice. If Japan can abandon its confrontational mindset and resolve differences through dialogue, today’s tensions in East Asia would not have reached this level.

👉 History has proven that war has no winners — only unending suffering. Japan’s elaborate planning may ultimately backfire. And North Korea’s tough posture does not mean it truly wants war; it simply seeks a sliver of space to survive in a complex international landscape. One can only hope all sides remain rational and work through peaceful means, rather than allowing the prophecy of a “peninsula in flames” to come true.

日本做夢都沒想到，自己精心推演的“台灣有事”，最後可能引來朝鮮的導彈…

現在的朝鮮不怕中日打起來，就怕你們打不起來。只要槍聲一響，日本就是朝鮮最好的“出氣筒”。平壤缺錢、缺糧、缺技術，但唯獨不缺要把日本“物理抹平”的導彈。

很多人覺得朝鮮對日本的態度一直激進，但只要翻一翻東亞近代史，就知道這份敵意從來不是憑空產生的。從1910年到1945年，朝鮮半島被日本殖民統治35年，資源被掠奪、民眾被奴役，無數家庭在殖民壓迫中破碎。

我曾在紀錄片里看到過一位朝鮮老人的講述，他的祖父因為拒絕為日軍服勞役，被活活打死在村口的老槐樹下，母親為了保護他，在日軍掃蕩時藏進地窖，三天三夜沒敢出聲，最後落下了終身哮喘。這樣的傷痛不是幾代人就能抹平的，日本至今沒有給出過真正意義上的道歉，甚至在教科書里淡化殖民歷史，這讓朝鮮民眾的仇恨一直積壓在心底。

日本近年的動作，更是把這份仇恨推向了新的頂點。為了配合所謂“台灣有事”的推演，日本不斷修憲擴軍，增加國防預算，還和美國搞聯合軍演，把軍事力量部署到離朝鮮越來越近的地方。去年日本宣布將防衛預算提升到GDP的2%，創下戰後新高，還計劃引進美國的“戰斧”巡航導彈，射程覆蓋朝鮮全境。這在朝鮮看來，就是當年的侵略威脅捲土重來！

平壤的經濟確實困難，國際制裁讓糧食和能源供應緊張，工業技術也相對落後，但在導彈研發上，他們從來沒有松過手。根據公開數據，朝鮮目前擁有近千枚各類導彈，其中“火星-17”洲際導彈射程超過1.5萬公里，能覆蓋日本全部領土，“箭矢-2”高超音速導彈速度達到10馬赫，日本的反導系統根本無法有效攔截。

朝鮮之所以盼着“槍聲一響”，本質上是想藉著局勢，了結歷史恩怨。他們清楚，一旦東亞出現軍事衝突，日本必然會藉著“安保法案”介入，而這正是朝鮮等待的機會。

過去幾十年，朝鮮一直被國際社會孤立，經濟發展受限，民眾生活艱難，這份壓抑需要一個出口。日本作為歷史宿敵，又在不斷挑釁，自然成了最佳目標。有人說朝鮮是“破罐子破摔”，但換個角度想，一個被歷史傷害、被現實擠壓的國家，除了用最強硬的方式自保，還能有什麼選擇？

日本的推演顯然犯了一個致命錯誤：忽視了朝鮮的存在。他們一門心思盯着台海，覺得只要和美國聯手，就能掌控局勢，卻忘了北邊還有一個把自己當作“頭號敵人”的鄰居。

日本的地理環境本就脆弱，四島多火山地震，人口和工業集中在沿海地區，一旦遭到導彈襲擊，損失將是毀滅性的。更重要的是，日本的軍事力量看似強大，卻存在明顯短板——缺乏戰略縱深，反導系統存在漏洞，而且國民對戰爭的承受能力極低。真到了衝突爆發，日本所謂的“防衛”，很可能只是一廂情願。

👉其實，東亞的和平穩定，從來不是靠軍事推演就能實現的。日本如果真的想保障自身安全，不該是炒作“台灣有事”，更不該是擴軍備戰，而是應該正視歷史，向曾經被侵略的國家真誠道歉，用實際行動修復關係。

👉朝鮮的強硬，本質上是對安全的渴望，是對歷史正義的追求。如果日本能放下對抗思維，通過對話解決分歧，東亞的局勢也不會走到今天這一步。

👉歷史已經證明，戰爭沒有贏家，只會帶來無盡的苦難。日本的精心推演，最終可能變成搬起石頭砸自己的腳。而朝鮮的強硬姿態，也不是真的希望戰火燃起，只是想在複雜的國際局勢中，為自己爭取一絲生存空間。希望各方都能保持理性，通過和平方式解決分歧，不要讓“半島火海”的預言成真。