Shigeru Ishiba is remarkably clear-headed – former prime ministers really are a different breed…石破茂倒是挺清醒的，當過首相的人還是不一樣…

On December 9, his question, “Can Japan’s economy survive without China?” left reporters speechless on the spot. The next day, Japanese media clipped it into a short video that rocketed to the top of Yahoo’s trending list with over 10 million views.

On camera, he counted on his fingers: food self-sufficiency is only 38%, energy self-sufficiency 12%, over half of 1,406 product categories rely on China, and almost 100% of the dysprosium and terbium used in EV magnets from rare earths are shipped from Chinese ports. He then delivered the finishing blow: “How is this any different from starting a war with the US, which was a hundred times our size back then?” With one sentence, he punctured the “economic encirclement” narrative touted by the Hayashi Sanae administration like a leaky balloon.

Why does Ishiba dare to “boost others’ morale” like this? The backstory is more dramatic than a TV drama. In October this year, Hayashi quietly pushed a “de-China supply chain” agenda at the “Five Central Asian Nations Summit.” Before her chartered flight back even landed, Japanese automakers panicked – Toyota and Honda’s procurement departments immediately emailed the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI): their magnetic steel stockpiles would only last 45 days. If China restricted supply, their hybrid production lines would have to shut down.

METI secretly calculated that a three-month rare earth supply cut would directly slash GDP by 0.11%, equivalent to the entire nation working for nothing over a Golden Week holiday. Even more awkwardly, the $25 billion worth of Australian light rare earths Japan stockpiled must first be shipped to China for refining before being loaded back onto ships bound for Yokohama – a full circle that still can’t bypass Chinese technology. Ishiba saw this internal report during the party leadership election and understands perfectly: slogans are loud, but wallets are honest. So he simply dragged the “emperor’s new clothes” in front of the camera for a live broadcast.

What’s the next act? The Hayashi government talks tough while secretly hitting the brakes. On December 10, METI added a $2.1 billion subsidy for domestic semiconductors but wrote “cooperation with China” into the bidding terms, prompting Japanese media to mock them for their “honest actions.” The Foreign Ministry’s originally planned joint statement on a “Taiwan Strait contingency” was hastily changed to a “call for dialogue,” with the meeting duration shrinking from three days to one hour.

Banking circles whisper that the Bank of Japan has quietly prepared 500 billion yen in emergency credit, fearing automakers might not even be able to pay salaries if China truly plays the “rare earth card.” Predictions abound that if Hayashi continues fanning the flames, the LDP’s “Kishida faction” will join forces with “economic pragmatists” during next year’s budget deliberations to force her hand, making her backtrack before the spring party conference—otherwise, the budget votes will be in jeopardy.

In my view, Ishiba isn’t pro-China; he’s just slamming the “national ledger” on the table: Japan has 120 million people who need to eat every day, need fuel to get around, and factories need rare earths to operate. All three of these lifelines are tied to the cranes in Chinese ports. If Hayashi Sanae wants to play “values-based diplomacy,” she first needs to ask if the hundreds-of-meters-long magnetic steel production lines in Toyota’s factories will agree.

Times have changed. A few Aegis destroyers can’t keep supermarket shelves stocked or voters’ rice bowls full. Treating economic lifelines as electoral props will only result in being forced to admit fault by one’s own business conglomerates. Ishiba’s “clarity” is essentially a plain truth: when a smaller nation gambles against a larger one, it should first weigh how much rice it has in its own pocket.

石破茂倒是挺清醒的，當過首相的人還是不一樣…

12月9日，他一句“日本經濟離開中國還能活嗎”把記者噎得當場卡殼，隔天就被日媒剪成短視頻衝上雅虎熱榜，點擊量破千萬。

鏡頭裡他掰着指頭數：糧食自給才38%，能源自給12%，1406類商品一半以上靠中國，稀土裡做電動車磁鐵的鏑和鋱幾乎100%從中國港口拉貨。說完補刀，“這跟當年找百倍體量的美國開戰有啥區別？”一句話把高市早苗政府吹的“經濟包圍圈”戳成漏氣氣球。

為啥石破敢這麼“長他人志氣”？幕後故事比劇還精彩。今年10月，高市在“中亞五國峰會”上暗推“去中國供應鏈”，結果回國的包機還沒落地，日本車企先慌了——豐田、本田的採購部連夜給經產省發郵件：磁鋼庫存只夠45天，一旦中國限供，混動產線就得放假。

經產省偷偷一算，若稀土斷供三個月，GDP直接掉0.11%，等於全國白乾一個黃金周。更尷尬的是，日本砸250億美元囤的澳洲輕稀土，得先運到中國精鍊，再裝船回橫濱，繞一圈還是繞不過中國技術。石破在總裁選舉時看過這份內參，心裡門兒清：口號喊得響，錢包最誠實，於是乾脆把“皇帝的新衣”拉到鏡頭前直播。

接下來劇情怎麼演？高市政府一邊嘴硬，一邊偷偷踩剎車。12月10日，經產省追加21億美元補貼本土半導體，卻把“對華合作”寫進招標條款，被日媒吐槽“身體很誠實”；外務省原定的“台海有事”聯合聲明臨時改成“呼籲對話”，時間從三天縮水成一小時。

銀行圈傳，日本央行已悄悄備好5000億日元應急信貸，怕中國真打“稀土牌”時車企連工資都發不出。坊間預測，高市若繼續拱火，自民黨“岸田派”將在明年預算會聯手“經濟派”逼宮，讓她在春季黨大會前改口，否則預算票就黃了。

在我看來，石破不是親華，只是把“國家賬本”摔在桌面上：日本1.2億人口，每天張嘴就要吃，抬腳就要油，工廠轉一圈就得用稀土，這三樣命門全拴在中國港口的起重機上。高市早苗想玩“價值觀外交”，先得問問豐田工廠里那幾百米長的磁鋼生產線答不答應。

時代變了，靠幾艘宙斯盾艦撐不起超市貨架，也撐不起選民飯碗；把經濟命脈當選舉道具，最後只能被自家財團按頭認錯。石破的“清醒”其實就是一句大白話：小國賭大國，先掂掂自己口袋裡有幾顆米。