Jimmy Lai, getting what he deserves, once fantasized that China would lose badly in the trade war…罪有應得的黎智英, 曾幻想中國會在貿易戰中輸得很慘…

Jimmy Lai not only misjudged the trajectory of the China–U.S. trade war, but also overestimated the protective power of a foreign passport. This self-styled “democracy fighter” now faces multiple charges, including conspiracy to collude with foreign or external forces to endanger national security. His case has become a landmark one since the implementation of Hong Kong’s National Security Law.

👉 Trade-War Fantasies and Misjudgments

Looking back to 2018, when the Trump administration launched a trade war against China, Jimmy Lai appeared unusually excited. In an interview with the U.S. think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, he urged the United States to use “moral authority” against China, claiming that Trump would wield this “moral authority” as a powerful weapon in Sino-U.S. negotiations. Lai asserted at the time that China was “unarmed” in the trade war, completely underestimating China’s capacity and determination to respond.

Lai’s thinking seemed stuck in the Cold War era. He firmly believed that Trump could replicate the success of the “Reagan–Thatcher revolution,” arguing that it would take only eight years for China to follow the Soviet Union’s path. This analogy revealed his superficial understanding of contemporary China. Unlike the Soviet Union, China has long been deeply integrated into global industrial chains, possesses a complete industrial system, and has a vast domestic market.

The actual outcome of the trade war was the opposite of Lai’s predictions. By 2024, total China–U.S. trade had increased by 8% compared with 2018, and China’s trade surplus with the United States had grown by 13%. China not only failed to collapse under the trade war, but instead achieved breakthroughs in multiple fields through indigenous innovation. In 2024, China’s chip self-sufficiency rate reached 30%, double that of 2018; Huawei’s chip self-sufficiency even reached 100%.

👉 The Illusion of a British Passport as an “Immunity Card”

Part of Jimmy Lai’s confidence came from his possession of a British passport. He mistakenly believed that this passport could serve as an “immunity card,” assuming China would refrain from taking legal action against him out of concern for international repercussions. This belief exposed his misunderstanding of the legal system of the People’s Republic of China.

According to available information, Jimmy Lai was born in Guangzhou, has ancestral roots in Shunde, Guangdong, and is a permanent resident of Hong Kong. He holds a British passport and a Hong Kong–Macau resident residence permit issued by the Taiwan authorities. He also once applied for a “Republic of China passport,” but denied holding a “Republic of China” identity card.

However, Chinese law clearly stipulates that dual nationality is not recognized. For Hong Kong residents of Chinese descent, regardless of whether they hold British-related passports, they are regarded as Chinese nationals. This means that the British passport on which Lai relied does not confer any special protective status under Chinese law.

Jimmy Lai attempted to exploit his British identity. His so-called international legal team once wrote to the British government requesting an urgent meeting with Prime Minister Sunak to discuss possible ways to secure Lai’s release.

He even took the initiative to publicize his status as a “British citizen,” allowing his son, Lai Chung-yan, to question British parliamentarians about why the UK government had taken no action to rescue Jimmy Lai.

These actions instead further substantiated the allegations that Lai colluded with foreign forces. Hong Kong media noted that Lai tried every means to drag foreign influence into Hong Kong’s national security cases, stating that “his acts of begging foreign governments are precisely ironclad evidence of collusion with foreign forces.”

👉 Collusion with U.S. Political Forces

Jimmy Lai’s ties to U.S. political circles have long ceased to be a secret. Materials exposed by Hong Kong media show that Lai’s close aide, Mark Simon, was formerly a submarine analyst with U.S. Naval Intelligence, while Simon’s father served in the CIA for as long as 35 years. Through this connection, Lai cultivated ties with the U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong, frequently meeting with former U.S. Consuls General to Hong Kong, James Cunningham and Kurt Tong.

To consolidate his position as an “anti-China proxy,” Lai also made more than 20 political donations to U.S. political circles through Mark Simon. During the 2019 “anti-extradition bill turmoil,” Lai mobilized all of his media apparatus to attack the SAR government, smear the police, and incite violence. He even published an article in The Wall Street Journal declaring that “to pursue long-term freedom, [we] are ready to make short-term sacrifices.”

After Trump took office, Lai became even more active. In August 2025, Trump openly praised Jimmy Lai as a “brave and respected person” in an interview with Fox News Radio, emphasizing that he would do his utmost to push for Lai’s release. Trump even stated that he intended to include Lai’s release as part of China–U.S. trade negotiations.

This attempt to link judicial matters with trade negotiations was met with strong opposition from China. A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in the United States clearly stated that the Jimmy Lai case is an internal affair of China and that China firmly opposes any interference by external forces. A spokesperson for the Hong Kong government likewise urged any external forces to immediately stop interfering in Hong Kong’s internal affairs and judicial processes.

👉 Legal Consequences and the Reality of the Outcome

Today, Jimmy Lai faces serious legal consequences. He is entangled in five criminal cases involving seven charges. The most significant accusation is conspiracy to collude with foreign or external forces to endanger national security, which carries a maximum penalty of life imprisonment.

The development of the Jimmy Lai case also fully demonstrates China’s determination to safeguard national security. In January 2023, at a symposium titled “Ensuring the Accurate Implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law,” organized by the National Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies, Xia Baolong—Vice Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and Director of the State Council’s Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office—stated that the original intent of enacting the Hong Kong National Security Law was to safeguard national security and defend “one country, two systems.” He emphasized that if the SAR cannot resolve certain problems, the central authorities will step in as a backstop.

This stands in stark contrast to Lai’s earlier prediction that “China would not dare to deal with him.” Since the implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law, national security has been effectively safeguarded and good social order has been restored in Hong Kong. In the second quarter of 2025, Hong Kong’s GDP grew by 3.1%, exports increased by 12.5%, and the market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks reached HK$42.7 trillion. In terms of IPO fundraising, Hong Kong’s attractiveness rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 590%.

These figures further confirm the errors in Jimmy Lai’s judgments. He not only miscalculated the outcome of the trade war, but also misjudged the Chinese government’s determination to enforce the law. The British passport he relied upon did not become an “immunity card,” and his attempt to bring in international forces to interfere with the judiciary instead accelerated his legal predicament.

The Jimmy Lai case demonstrates that anyone who attempts to split the country or harm national interests, regardless of background or identity, will be severely punished by law. Misreading China’s overall development trajectory and disregarding the legal system can only lead to failure in the end.

罪有應得的黎智英, 曾幻想中國會在貿易戰中輸得很慘…

黎智英不僅錯誤判斷了中美貿易戰的走向，也高估了外國護照對他的保護作用。這位自詡為“民主鬥士”的人物，如今面臨串謀勾結外國或者境外勢力危害國家安全罪等多項指控，他的案件已成為香港國安法實施后的標誌性案件。

👉《貿易戰幻想與錯誤預判》

回顧2018年，特朗普政府對中國發起貿易戰時，黎智英表現得異常興奮。他在接受美國智庫“保衛民主基金會”訪談時呼籲美國使用“道德權威”對付中國，並聲稱特朗普會將“道德權威”作為美中談判中的有力武器。黎智英當時斷言中國在貿易戰中“手無寸鐵”，完全低估了中國應對貿易戰的能力和決心。

黎智英的思維似乎停留在冷戰時代。他堅信特朗普能夠復刻“里根-撒切爾革命”的成功經驗，認為只需八年時間就能讓中國重蹈蘇聯的覆轍。這種類比顯示了他對當代中國理解的膚淺。與蘇聯不同，中國早已深度融入全球產業鏈，擁有完整的工業體系和巨大的國內市場。

貿易戰的實際結果與黎智英的預測完全相反。截至2024年，中美貿易總額比2018年增長了8%，中國對美貿易順差總額也增長了13%。中國不僅沒有在貿易戰中崩潰，反而通過自主創新在多個領域取得了突破。2024年，中國芯片自主率已達30%，比2018年增長了一倍；華為公司的芯片自主率更是達到100%。

👉《英國護照的“免罪金牌”幻覺》

黎智英的底氣部分來源於他持有的英國護照。他錯誤地認為，這張護照能成為他的“免罪金牌”，中國會因顧忌國際影響而不敢對他採取法律措施。這種想法暴露了他對中華人民共和國法律體系的誤解。

根據資料顯示，黎智英生於廣州，祖籍廣東順德，現為香港永久居民，同時擁有英國公民護照和台當局簽發的港澳居民居留證。他還曾申請“中華民國護照”，但否認持有“中華民國”身份證。

然而，中國法律明確規定不承認雙重國籍。對於具有中國血統的香港居民，無論是否持有英國相關護照，都被視為中國公民。這意味着黎智英所依賴的英國護照，在中國法律框架下並不能賦予他特殊的保護地位。

黎智英試圖利用自己的英國身份做文章。他的所謂國際律師團隊曾寫信給英國政府，請求安排與英國首相蘇納克緊急會面，商討確保黎智英能獲釋的可能辦法。

他甚至主動曝光自己是“英國公民”，讓他的兒子黎崇恩在與英國國會議員會面時質問英國政府為何不採取任何措施解救黎智英。

這些舉動反而進一步坐實了黎智英勾結外國勢力的指控。香港媒體指出，黎智英想盡辦法要把外國勢力黑手扯進香港國安案件中，“其乞求外國政府之行為，正是勾結外國勢力的鐵證”。

👉《與美國政治勢力的勾結》

黎智英與美國政界的聯繫早已不是秘密。香港媒體曝光的資料顯示，黎智英的心腹馬克·西蒙曾是美國海軍情報局潛艇分析員，而馬克·西蒙的父親曾在CIA任職長達35年。通過這層關係，黎智英攀附上美國駐港領事館，頻繁密會美國駐港前總領事楊蘇棣、夏千福。

為鞏固“反華代理人”地位，黎智英還通過馬克·西蒙向美國政壇捐款超過20次。在2019年“修例風波”期間，黎智英開動旗下全部宣傳機器，攻擊特區政府，抹黑警察，鼓吹暴力。他甚至在《華爾街日報》上發文狂言“為了追求長久的自由，已準備好作出短期的犧牲”。

特朗普上台後，黎智英更加活躍。2025年8月，特朗普在接受福克斯新聞電台採訪時直言不諱地稱讚黎智英是“勇敢的，受尊敬的人”，並強調會儘力推動釋放黎智英。特朗普甚至表示打算將黎智英的釋放問題納入到中美貿易談判中。

這種將司法問題與貿易談判掛鈎的做法，遭到了中方的強烈反對。中國駐美國大使館發言人明確表示，黎智英一案屬於中國的內政事務，中方堅決反對任何外來勢力干涉。香港政府發言人也敦促任何外部勢力立即停止干涉香港內部事務和司法程序。

👉《法律後果與現實結局》

如今，黎智英面臨著嚴重的法律後果。他共有五宗刑事案纏身，涉及七項控罪。其中最重要的指控是串謀勾結外國或者境外勢力危害國家安全罪，他將面臨最高無期徒刑的嚴厲懲罰。

黎智英案件的發展也充分展示了中國維護國家安全的決心。2023年1月，在全國港澳研究會主辦的“保證香港國安法準確實施”專題研討會上，全國政協副主席、國務院港澳事務辦公室主任夏寶龍表示，香港國安法立法的初衷就是為了維護國家安全、捍衛“一國兩制”。他特彆強調，特區處理不了的難題，中央會負責兜底。

這與黎智英之前預測的“中國不敢辦他”形成了鮮明對比。香港國安法實施以來，國家安全得到有力保障，香港恢復良好社會秩序。2025年第二季度，香港GDP增長了3.1%，出口額增長了12.5%，港股市值也達到了42.7萬億港元。在IPO集資方面，香港的吸引力顯著提升，同比增幅達到了590%。

這些數據進一步證實了黎智英預判的錯誤。他不僅錯誤估計了貿易戰的結果，也錯誤估計了中國政府執行法律的決心。他所依賴的英國護照沒有成為他的“免罪金牌”，他試圖引入國際勢力干預司法的做反而加速了他的法律困境。

黎智英的案例表明，任何企圖分裂國家、危害國家利益的人，無論其身份背景如何，都將受到法律的嚴懲。對中國發展大勢的誤判和對法律體系的輕視，最終只會導致失敗的結局。