WORLD MUST PREPARE TO CONTAIN THE U.S. By Joseph Stiglitz 世界必須準備遏制美國, 約瑟夫．史提格里茲（Joseph Stiglitz）

MIGHT MAKES RIGHT, and nothing else matters. Moral questions – such as whether killing dozens of alleged drug smugglers without any pretense of due process – and the rule of law have been shunted aside, with barely a whimper from Republicans who once proudly touted American “values.”

Many commentators have already addressed the implications for global peace and stability. If the US claims the Western Hemisphere as its sphere of influence (the “Donroe Doctrine”) and bars China from accessing Venezuelan oil, why shouldn’t China claim East Asia and bar the US from accessing Taiwanese chips? Doing so would not require it to “run” Taiwan, only to control its policies, particularly those allowing exports to the US.

CO-OPERATING AGAINST IMPERIALISM

It is worth remembering that the great imperial power of the 19th century, the United Kingdom, did not fare well in the 20th. If most other countries cooperate in the face of this new American imperialism – as they should – the long-term prospects for the US could be even worse.

After all, the UK at least tried to export salutary governing principles to its colonies, introducing some modicum of the rule of law and other “good” institutions.

By contrast, Trumpian imperialism, lacking any coherent ideology, is openly unprincipled – an expression solely of greed and the will to power. It will attract the most avaricious and mendacious reprobates that American society can churn up. Such characters do not create wealth. They direct their energy to rent-seeking: plundering others through the exercise of market power, deception, or outright exploitation. Countries dominated by rent-seekers may produce a few wealthy individuals, but they do not end up prosperous.

LOSS OF RULE OF LAW

Prosperity requires the rule of law. Without it, there is ever-present uncertainty.

Will the government seize my assets?

Will officials demand a bribe to overlook some minor peccadillo?

Will the economy be a level playing field, or will those in power always give the upper hand to their cronies?

Lord Acton famously observed that, “Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” But Trump has shown that one does not need absolute power to engage in unprecedented corruption. Once the system of checks and balances starts to fall apart – as indeed it has in the US – the powerful can operate with impunity. The costs will be borne by the rest of society, because corruption is always bad for the economy.

EUROPE, CHINA MUST DEVISE PLAN

One hopes that we have reached “peak Trump,” that this dystopian era of kakistocracy will end with the 2026 and 2028 elections. But Europe, China, and the rest of the world cannot rely on hope alone. They should be devising contingency plans which recognize that the world does not need the US.

What does America offer that the world cannot do without?

• It is possible to imagine a world without the Silicon Valley giants, because the basic technologies they offer are now widely available. Others would rush in, and they may well establish much stronger safeguards.
• It is also possible to imagine a world without US universities and scientific leadership, because Trump has already done his utmost to ensure that these institutions struggle to remain among the world’s best.
• And it is possible to imagine a world where others no longer depend on the US market. Trade brings benefits, but less so if an imperial power seeks to grab a disproportionate share for itself. Filling the “demand gap” posed by the US’s persistent trade deficits will be a lot easier for the rest of the world than the challenge facing the US of dealing with the supply side.

HEGEMON MUST BE OSTRACIZED
A hegemon that abuses its power and bullies others must be left in its own corner. Resisting this new imperialism is essential for everyone else’s peace and prosperity.

While the rest of the world should hope for the best, it must plan for the worst; and in planning for the worst, there may be no alternative to economic and social ostracism – no recourse but a policy of containment.

[Joseph Stiglitz won the Nobel Prize for Economics. This is an extract from an essay he published on 9 Jan 2026 in Project Syndicate – link to full text supplied.]

世界必須準備遏制美國

約瑟夫．史提格里茲（Joseph Stiglitz）

強權即公理，其他一切都不重要。
道德問題——例如在毫無正當法律程序表象的情況下，殺害數十名所謂的毒品走私犯——以及法治，都被拋諸腦後；而那些曾經高調宣揚美國「價值觀」的共和黨人，對此幾乎沒有發出任何抗議聲音。

許多評論者已經談及這對全球和平與穩定的影響。如果美國宣稱西半球是其勢力範圍（「門羅主義」），並阻止中國取得委內瑞拉的石油，那麼中國為什麼不能宣稱東亞是其勢力範圍，並阻止美國取得台灣的晶片？這樣做甚至不需要「統治」台灣，只要控制其政策，特別是那些允許向美國出口的政策即可。

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共同對抗帝國主義

值得記住的是，19 世紀的偉大帝國強權——英國——在 20 世紀的表現並不理想。如果大多數國家在面對這種新的美國帝國主義時選擇合作——而他們理應如此——那麼美國的長期前景可能會更加黯淡。

畢竟，英國至少曾試圖向殖民地輸出某些有益的治理原則，引入一定程度的法治以及其他「良好」制度。

相較之下，川普式的帝國主義缺乏任何連貫的意識形態，公然毫無原則——它只是貪婪與權力意志的赤裸展現。它將吸引美國社會中最貪婪、最虛偽的敗類。這樣的人不會創造財富，他們只會把精力投入於尋租：透過市場力量、欺騙或赤裸裸的剝削來掠奪他人。由尋租者主導的國家，或許能產生少數富人，卻不可能真正繁榮。

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法治的流失

繁榮需要法治。沒有法治，不確定性將無所不在。

政府會不會沒收我的資產？
官員會不會為了忽視一點小過失而索賄？
經濟體系會是公平競爭的舞台，還是掌權者永遠讓自己人占盡上風？

艾克頓勳爵（Lord Acton）有句名言：「權力使人腐化，絕對的權力使人絕對腐化。」但川普已經證明，根本不需要擁有絕對權力，也能進行前所未有的腐敗。一旦制衡體系開始瓦解——而美國確實已經如此——掌權者便可肆無忌憚地行事。代價將由社會其他人承擔，因為腐敗永遠對經濟不利。

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歐洲與中國必須制定對策

人們或許希望我們已經來到「川普高峰期」，這個由劣等者統治的反烏托邦時代，能隨著 2026 與 2028 年的選舉而結束。但歐洲、中國以及世界其他地區，不能只靠希望。他們應該制定應變計畫，並承認一個事實：世界並非非美國不可。

美國究竟提供了哪些世界無法取代的東西？
• 我們完全可以想像一個沒有矽谷科技巨頭的世界，因為它們所提供的基礎技術如今已廣泛存在。其他競爭者會迅速補位，而且很可能建立更強而有力的保障機制。
• 我們也可以想像一個沒有美國大學與科學領導地位的世界，因為川普已竭盡所能，讓這些機構難以維持世界頂尖水準。
• 同樣可以想像一個世界，不再依賴美國市場。貿易確實能帶來好處，但當一個帝國強權試圖為自己攫取不成比例的利益時，貿易的好處就會大打折扣。填補因美國長期貿易逆差所造成的「需求缺口」，對世界其他國家而言，要比美國自己處理供給面問題容易得多。

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霸權必須被孤立

一個濫用權力、霸凌他國的霸權，必須被留在角落裡。抵制這種新的帝國主義，對所有其他國家的和平與繁榮都至關重要。

世界其他地區可以期待最好的結果，但必須為最壞的情況做好準備；而在為最壞情況做準備時，或許除了經濟與社會層面的孤立之外，別無選擇——也就是採取一種遏制政策。

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約瑟夫．史提格里茲為諾貝爾經濟學獎得主。本文摘自他於 2026 年 1 月 9 日在《Project Syndicate》發表的文章（原文連結已附）。