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Fudan University predicts Trump will be the next president. This is from Fudan U’s CCDA (Center for Complex Decision Analysis). They predict Trump will win (60%), based not on polling or structural analysis, but on agent-based computer modelling (ABM). 復旦大學預測川普將成為下一任總統。這是來自復旦大學的（複雜決策分析中心）。他們預測川普將獲勝（60%），不是基於民意調查或結構分析，而是基於基於代理的電腦建模.

These are the first known applications of ABM to election predictions. Past predictions have been shown to be not only correct, but accurate to actual outcomes of elections. 這些是 ABM 在選舉預測中的首次已知應用。過去的預測已被證明不僅是正確的，而且準確地反映了選舉的實際結果.

https://ccda.fudan.edu.cn/news/2024-u-s-presidential-election-forecasting-results-based-on-abm-computer-simulations/

They take various key factors (individual: age, gender, income, education, occupation, ethnicity, religion; macro factors: economic growth, gini coefficient, unemployment; candidate attributes: incumbency, age, gender, education, scandals, etc) and do regression analysis (i.e. how much each factor affects an individuals’ candidate choice based past election results). They use the regression analysis to derive a set of rules guiding the voting preference of multiple agent models in the future. These bottom-up agent models are then run again in simulation to see if they can predict the results of past elections. The ones that are the most successful are then run in simulation for forecasting a future election, in this case, 2024. 他們考慮各種關鍵因素（個人：年齡、性別、收入、教育、職業、種族、宗教；宏觀因素：經濟成長、基尼係數、失業率；候選人屬性：在職狀況、年齡、性別、教育、醜聞等）迴歸分析（即每個因素對個人基於過去選舉結果的候選人選擇的影響程度）。他們利用迴歸分析得出一組指導未來多個代理模型的投票偏好的規則。 然後，這些自下而上的代理模型再次在模擬中運行，看看它們是否可以預測過去的選舉結果。 然後，模擬運行最成功的預測來預測未來的選舉，在本例中為 2024 年.

The model is designed to take into account “shock factors”, although we don’t know which. Allegations of North Korea (NK) participation, Trump’s relationship to NK, and the Ukraine war could be an unfactored variable. 該模型的設計考慮了“衝擊因素”，儘管我們不知道是哪些因素。對北韓參與的指控、川普與北韓的關係以及烏克蘭戰爭可能是一個未考慮的變數.

It also assumes no outside (e.g. Deep State or other) intervention (i.e. assassination, fraud, dirty tricks, lawfare), 它還假設沒有外部（例如深州或其他）幹預（即暗殺、欺詐、骯髒伎倆、法律）

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Article on Fudan U’s ABM Methodology for predicting elections 復旦大學預測選舉的 ABM 方法論文章

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9246136/

Good intro text on ABMs & complexity (contains some math & python programming but concepts can be understood without) 關於 ABM 和複雜性的良好介紹文本（包含一些數學和 Python 編程，但概念可以不理解）

Click to access thinkcomplexity.pdf

Mandarin video: The H-6K showed off its muscles in Zhuhai, using the Chinese version of the “dagger” to bring endless anxiety to the US military. 【傅前哨】轟-6K在珠海秀肌肉，用中國版「匕首」帶給美軍無盡的焦慮. 對美國這個沒有文化文明祇看金錢愛好暴力的霸權帝國祇可以用美國懂得的就是以暴制暴給它打臉!
https://rumble.com/v5lm1xl-the-h-6k-showed-off-its-muscles-in-zhuhai.html
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8L1yGcQ/

Have you or your overseas children received the invitation from HK government which indicates that you are one of the best of the best! 您或您的海外子女是否已收到香港政府的邀請函，這表明您是精英中的精英之一！

Special Interest investing heavily backing their puppets to enter the White House. It is an American version of the HK triads battling for territories for money, power, women, drxg and s🦅x. 特殊利益團體投入大量資金支持他們的傀儡進入白宮。這是美國版的香港黑社會，但比香港版的黑社會大千萬倍，他們為金錢、權力、女人、毒品 和姓交易爭奪全球地盤.

Video: US universities should lift their racist policies! Uni Technology Sarawak (UTS), Sibu. Vice Chancellor & President Prof. Datuk Dr. Khairuddin Ab. Hamid. He does not believe restricting Chinese entering his university a wise policy 美國今天還把1882排華法案放在全部大學不是明智和笨的做法。砂拉越統一科技 (UTS)，詩巫。副校長兼校長,教授哈米德. 他不認為限制中國人或任何族群進入他的大學是明智的政策
https://rumble.com/v5llcyt-us-universities-should-lift-their-racist-policies.html
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8L1DvEK/

Video: RMB$10,000 high end care home in China, same facilities in US will cost US$10,000. We had visited 3 care homes outside Shanghai in 2018. Our experiences were the same. Everything in US is overpriced due to overcapacity of US$. Therefore senior care homes cost 7x more in America! 中國的高端養老院價格為人民幣10,000元，美國同樣的設施價格為10,000美元。 2018年，我們參觀了上海以外的3家養老院，經歷都是一樣的。由於美元產能過剩，美國的一切都定價過高. 像老人院是高出美國七倍價錢! https://youtu.be/7CghsPBLvmU

Video: Andy Lau sings “I am Chinese” in Taipei, China, and the world’s China & Chinese haters collapsed. 劉德華在中國台北唱”中國人”全球恨國黨崩潰.

作詞：李安修     作曲：陳耀川編：涂惠元/江港生

中國人
曲：陳耀川 編：涂惠元/江港生 詞：李安修
五千年的風和雨啊藏了多少夢
黃色的臉黑色的眼不變是笑容
八千里山川河嶽像是一首歌
不論你來自何方將去向何處
一樣的淚 一樣的痛 曾經的苦難 我們留在心中
一樣的血 一樣的種 未來還有夢 我們一起開拓
手牽著手不分你我 昂首向前走 讓世界知道我們都是中國人

五千年的風和雨啊藏了多少夢
黃色的臉黑色的眼不變是笑容
八千里山川河嶽像是一首歌
不論你來自何方將去向何處
一樣的淚 一樣的痛 曾經的苦難 我們留在心中
一樣的血 一樣的種 未來還有夢 我們一起開拓

一樣的淚 一樣的痛 曾經的苦難 我們留在心中
一樣的血 一樣的種 未來還有夢 我們一起開拓

手牽著手不分你我 昂首向前走 讓世界知道我們都是中國人

https://rumble.com/v5ldr1m-andy-lau-sings-i-am-chinese-in-taipei-china.html

It is not how much you earned. It is how much you take home after tax. It is not how much cash you have. It is what your cash could buy at where you live. If you live in SF Greater Bay Area, everything cost at least 3x more than China Greater Bay Area. Why smart professionals choose HK? Unlike US, HK is not a communist city. Maximum tax rate is 17%. In US the Maximum Tax Rate (Federal, State and Sales Tax) in States like California is 37% + 14.4% + 9.25% = 60.65%。不是你賺多少錢。而是你稅後帶回家多少錢。重要的不是你手上有多少現金。而是在您居住地可以購買多少東西。如果你住在舊金山大灣區，所有東西的價格都比中國大灣區最少貴3倍。你可能是表面風光，其實是內裡空虛，空心老棺。為什麼聰明的專業人士會選擇香港? 與美國不同，香港不是共產主義城市，最高稅率為17%。在美國，好像加州的最高稅率（聯邦稅、州稅和消費稅）為 37% + 14.4% + 9.25% = 60.65%

Made by China 🇨🇳 Innovation & Quality Assurance 創新能力 🇨🇳 質素保證

Unlike US, HK is not a communist city. Maximum tax rate is 17%. In US the Maximum Tax Rate (Federal, State and Sales Tax) in States like California is 37% + 14.4% + 9.25% = 60.65% 與美國不同，香港不是共產主義城市。最高稅率為17%。在美國，好像加州的最高稅率（聯邦稅、州稅和消費稅）為 37% + 14.4% + 9.25% = 60.65%