Most western people are concerned about whether President Xi would continue his presidency for the third turn. That is not the focus of the 1.4 billions Chinese gave CPC 92% approval rates 大多數西方人都擔心習主席是否會繼續擔任第三輪主席。這不是14億中國人給中共92%支持率的重點.
But most Chinese people look at where the communist party will lead China to go forward. So, there is a difference. The difference is that Chinese people trust CPC’s leadership in China, and are not concerned much about who will be the next president.
I just watched an episode from a Taiwanese media on youtube. One sentence mentioned by one commentator was “江(river)山(mountain)是人民,人民是江山“. In English, you can translate this to: “The country is (belongs to) the people, and the people are (rule) the country”. the meaning is very similar to “from the people, by the people, and for the people” in the US Declaration of Independence. But the CPC is more in a service position for the people, to be a true leader for the people as a whole…this probably is the difference between western democracy and China’s democracy…
For people who are interested in China’s future trade policies, it is worth reading the report by President Xi.
Full text of Xi Jinping’s report to the 20th Party Congress:
Long, but worth reading. Some excerpts below: compare with what the MSM spin.
Official translation of the speech delivered by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the opening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on Oct 16.
We have implemented a people-centered philosophy of development. We have worked continuously to ensure people’s access to childcare, education, employment, medical services, elderly care, housing, and social assistance, thus bringing about an all-around improvement in people’s lives. China’s average life expectancy has reached 78.2 years, its per capita disposable annual income has risen from 16,500 yuan to 35,100 yuan, and more than 13 million urban jobs have been created each year on average over the past 10 years. We have built the largest education, social security, and healthcare systems in the world. These achievements have allowed us to make historic strides in making education universally available, bring 1.04 billion people under the coverage of basic old-age insurance, and ensure basic medical insurance for 95 percent of the population. Timely adjustments have been made to the childbirth policy. More than 42 million housing units in run-down urban areas and more than 24 million dilapidated rural houses have been rebuilt, marking a significant improvement in housing conditions in both urban and rural areas. The number of internet users has reached 1.03 billion. We have ensured a more complete and lasting sense of fulfillment, happiness, and security for our people, and we have made further progress in achieving common prosperity for all.
We have acted on the idea that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets. We have persisted with a holistic and systematic approach to conserving and improving mountain, water, forest, farmland, grassland, and desert ecosystems, and we have ensured stronger ecological conservation and environmental protection across the board, in all regions, and at all times. China’s ecological conservation systems have been improved, the critical battle against pollution has been advanced, and solid progress has been made in promoting green, circular, and low-carbon development. This has led to historic, transformative, and comprehensive changes in ecological and environmental protection and has brought us bluer skies, greener mountains, and cleaner waters.
We have applied a holistic approach to national security. We have steadily improved the leadership, legal, strategy, and policy systems for national security. We have not yielded any ground on matters of principle, and we have resolutely safeguarded China’s sovereignty, security, and development interests. National security has thus been strengthened on all fronts. We have further improved the social governance system based on collaboration, participation, and shared benefits. We have effectively contained ethnic separatists, religious extremists, and violent terrorists and secured important progress in the campaigns to combat and root out organized crime. We have responded effectively to major natural disasters. The Peaceful China Initiative has entered a new stage. …………..
We must put the people first. People-centeredness is an essential attribute of Marxism. Our Party’s theories are from the people, for the people, and beneficial to the people. The people’s creative practices are the inexhaustible source of our theoretical innovations. Theories that are detached from the people will be feeble and ineffective, and theories that cannot deliver for the people will be stale and lifeless. We must stand firmly with the people, respond to their wishes, respect their creativity, and pool their wisdom to develop theories that they like, accept, and adopt and that become powerful tools guiding them in understanding and changing the world.
We must maintain self-confidence and stand on our own feet. There has never been an instruction manual or ready-made solution for the Chinese people and the Chinese nation to turn to as they fought to end the great sufferings endured since the advent of modern times and have moved on toward the bright future of rejuvenation. The Party has led the people in independently blazing the path to success over the past century, and the success of Marxism in China has been realized by Chinese Communists through our own endeavors. One point underpinning these successes is that China’s issues must be dealt with by Chinese people in light of the Chinese context. We must remain firm in our conviction in Marxism and socialism with Chinese characteristics and strengthen our confidence in the path, theory, system, and culture of socialism with Chinese characteristics. With a stronger sense of historical responsibility and creativity, we should make greater contributions to the development of Marxism. We should never act blindly without assessing how conditions have evolved or allow ourselves to become ossified or closed off, nor should we mechanically imitate others or indiscriminately absorb foreign ideas.
We must uphold fundamental principles and break new ground. We are advancing a great cause that none have attempted before. Only by upholding fundamental principles can we avoid losing our bearings or making catastrophic mistakes. Only by breaking new ground can we meet the call of the day and shape the trends of our times. We should approach Marxism with a respect for science and in the spirit of seeking truth. We must never waver in upholding the basic tenets of Marxism, the overall leadership of the Party, and socialism with Chinese characteristics. We should keep pace with the times and adapt to the evolution of practice. We should approach each and every new thing with great enthusiasm and never stop broadening and deepening our understanding of the world. We must dare to say what has never been said and do what has never been done, and we must use new theory to guide new practice.
We must adopt a problem-oriented approach. Problems represent the voice of the times. The fundamental task of theory is to respond to problems and provide guidelines for finding solutions. The problems we face today are considerably more complex, and resolving them has become much more difficult. This presents a completely new challenge for theoretical innovation. We must be more conscious of problems, especially new problems that are discovered through practice, deep-seated problems affecting reform, development, and stability, pressing concerns of the people, major issues in the evolving global landscape, and prominent issues we face in Party building. We should keep developing new thinking, new approaches, and new ways to effectively resolve problems.
We must apply systems thinking. All things are interconnected and interdependent. We must view them with the understanding that they are universally connected, part of a complete system, and constantly evolving if we are to grasp the laws governing their development. As a major developing country, China is still in the primary stage of socialism and is going through an extensive and profound social transformation. A small move made to advance reform and development or to adjust interests may affect the bigger picture. We should be able to see the present from a historical perspective, look beyond the surface to get to the crux of issues, and properly manage the relationships between overall and local interests, between the present and the future, between macro and micro concerns, between primary and secondary issues, and between the special and the ordinary. We should improve our ability to adopt a strategic perspective and apply a historical, dialectical, and systematic approach to thinking; we should get better at thinking creatively, thinking in terms of the rule of law, and considering worst-case scenarios. By doing so, we can develop a well-conceived approach to planning and advancing the endeavors of the Party and the country on all fronts in a forward-looking and holistic manner.
We must maintain a global vision. The Communist Party of China is dedicated to pursuing happiness for the Chinese people and rejuvenation for the Chinese nation. It is also dedicated to human progress and world harmony. We should expand our global vision and develop keen insight into the trends of human development and progress, respond to the general concerns of people of all countries, and play our part in resolving the common issues facing humankind. With an open mind, we should draw inspiration from all of human civilization’s outstanding achievements and work to build an even better world. ……. Unity is strength, and only in unity can we succeed. To build China into a modern socialist country in all respects, we must unleash the tremendous creativity of the Chinese people in their hundreds of millions. All of us in the Party must stay true to our fundamental purpose of serving the people wholeheartedly, maintain a people-centered mindset, and carry out the mass line. We must respect the pioneering spirit of our people and ensure that we are acting for the people and relying on the people in everything we do. We must follow the principle of “from the people, to the people,” maintain a close bond with the people, and accept their criticism and oversight. We must breathe the same air as the people, share the same future, and stay truly connected to them. We must strengthen the great unity of the Chinese people of all ethnic groups and the great unity of all the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation at home and abroad. By doing so, we will create a powerful collective force working with one heart and one mind to realize the Chinese Dream.
Asia Times: New Commerce Department chip and equipment bans against China are hitting US semiconductor company shares hardest. 亞洲時報:商務部對中國的新芯片和設備禁令對美國半導體公司股票的打擊最大. By Scott Foster, Oct 17 2022
On October 7, the US Department of Commerce expanded licensing requirements for exports of advanced semiconductors and the equipment that’s used to make them to cover all shipments to China and not just shipments to particular companies.
The share prices of companies expected to be affected had already dropped, discounting previously announced sanctions and the downturn in the semiconductor cycle that was already underway.
From their 52-week highs to recent 52-week lows:
Intel (INTC) was down 56%; Micron (MU) was down 50%; Nvidia (NVDA) was down 69% (its products having been directly targeted by the Biden administration); and AMD (AMD) (also directly targeted) was down 67%. Among US semiconductor equipment companies:
Applied Materials (AMAT) was down 57%; Lam Research (LRCX) was down 59%; and KLA (KLAC) was down 45%. Outside the United States, ASML (ASML) of the Netherlands was down 59% from 52-week high to 52-week low. Japanese equipment makers Tokyo Electron (TYO 8035) and Screen Holdings (TYO 7735) were down 50% and 44%, respectively.
Japanese semiconductor makers Renesas (TYO 5723) and Rohm (TYO 6963) were down only 27% and 28%, but they focus on automotive and industrial semiconductors, not the artificial intelligence and high-performance computing devices that obsess the Biden administration. Their 52-week lows were last March.
SMIC (HKG 0981), China’s top IC foundry, was down 40% while TSMC (TPE 2330) was down 43% – a relatively strong performance under the circumstances.
In terms of share price performance and investor returns, American companies and ASML have been hit harder than the Chinese. That might seem ironic considering the measures target China, but it is the market’s discounting mechanism at work.
US government policy is aggravating what was already shaping up to be a severe industry downturn – and friendly fire is a real problem.
On its earnings call on October 13, TSMC announced that it had decided to reduce 2022 capital spending to US$36 billion from about $40 billion due to falling global demand for semiconductors and rising costs.
Management had planned to spend $40 billion to $44 billion this year but said in July that actual spending would be at the bottom of that range. Compared with the $30 billion spent in 2021, projected growth has dropped from a maximum of 47% to 33% and is now 20%.
Mitigating factors for TSMC include a one-year authorization from the US government to continue with the expansion of its facilities in Nanjing and the possibility of a rebound in demand when China’s Covid restrictions are loosened. But TSMC CEO C C Wei also told the media that “We expect probably in 2023 the semiconductor industry will likely decline.”
At the end of September – when announcing results for its fiscal year 2022, which ended on September 1 – US memory chip maker Micron told investors that the company’s capital spending would be cut by a third, from $12 billion to about $8 billion, in the year ahead.
Construction spending should more than double, “to support demand for” the second half of the decade, “but spending on wafer fab production equipment is likely to decline by nearly 50% due to “a much slower ramp of our 1-beta DRAM and 232 layer NAND [the company’s newest and most advanced products] versus prior expectations.”
Furthermore, “To immediately address our inventory situation and reduce supply growth, we are selectively reducing utilization in both DRAM and NAND.” Reports from Micron and its South Korean and Japanese competitors indicate that memory chip production has been cut by about 30%.
Samsung’s approach to capital spending is similar to Micron’s. Its “shell first” strategy is to build clean rooms first so it can install equipment flexibly and rapidly when the time comes. On October 4, Samsung announced plans to launch a 2-nanometer foundry process (matching TSMC) by 2025 and a 1.4-nanometer process by 2027.
As the global economy weakens and US high-end decoupling from China accelerates, the outlook for semiconductor capital spending continues to deteriorate. Last March, market research organization IC Insights forecast a 23.5% increase to $190 billion in calendar 2022.
That industry capital spending figure was reduced to $185.5 billion in August but the announcements from TSMC and Micron point to a sharper decline. Handel Jones, CEO of American consulting firm International Business Strategies, estimates the figure at $160 billion, an increase of only 4% over last year’s $153.9 billion.
IC Insights itself qualified its August forecast, writing that “a menacing cloud of uncertainty looms on the horizon. Soaring inflation and a rapidly decelerating worldwide economy caused semiconductor manufacturers to re-evaluate their aggressive expansion plans at the midpoint of the year. Several (but not all) suppliers – particularly many leading DRAM and flash memory manufacturers – have already announced reductions in their capex budgets for this year.
“Many more suppliers have noted that capital spending cuts are expected in 2023 as the industry digests three years of robust spending and evaluates capacity needs in the face of slowing economic growth.”
When the dot.com bubble burst in 2000, semiconductor capital spending dropped 55% in two years. The Lehman Shock triggered a 57% decline, also over two years. Now, capital expenditure is dropping back from an all-time record high, suggesting a decline of similar magnitude and perhaps duration.
On October 12, The Wall Street Journal reported that US equipment makers including KLA and Lam Research have halted installation and support of equipment at China’s Yangtze Memory Technologies Co (YMTC) while assessing the new US Commerce Department rules. The share price of Japanese NAND flash memory maker Toshiba (TYO 6502), which competes with YMTC, jumped 10% on the news.
YMTC’s NAND flash memory is good enough for Apple and there is no evidence that its technology was stolen, so this can be considered an escalation of US policy from the punishment of bad actors to an all-out attempt to stifle Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing and thus roll back the development of China’s economy.
Commencing immediately, the withdrawal of American support staff will crimp Chinese semiconductor production.
In addition, a new Commerce Department regulation that “restricts the ability of US persons to support the development, or production, of ICs at certain PRC-located semiconductor fabrication ‘facilities’ without a license” is already disrupting the operations of Chinese companies.
By forcing numerous executives and engineers of Chinese extraction to choose sides, it brings decoupling down to the personal level.
Data from Tokyo Electron show the company’s total sales of semiconductor production equipment up 2.6 times in the five years to March 2022 (the company’s fiscal year ends in March). The increase was led by a 5.7x increase in China, which grew from 12% to 26% of total sales.
In the two years to March 2022 alone, sales in China increased by 2.7x. That suggests that the Chinese semiconductor industry has purchased enough equipment to see it through the next two or three years, at least.
Tokyo Electron’s performance in other regional markets was not exceptional. Sales were up 2.7x in Korea, 2.6x in the US, 2.5x in Japan, 1.8x in Europe, 1.6x in Taiwan (which started at a high level), and 2.1x in Southeast Asia and other regions.
As Japan’s largest and the world’s third-largest maker of semiconductor production equipment, with a diversified product portfolio, Tokyo Electron is representative of the industry as a whole.
The Chinese can no longer rely on US equipment suppliers and European and Japanese suppliers must follow US rules if their products incorporate US technology, so China will step up its import substitution campaign.
Sanctions on China have already caused large losses for American semiconductor and equipment companies, and more are probably on the way. Furthermore, in the next up-cycle, the China opportunity for foreign suppliers is likely to be much diminished.
US Student loan forgiveness application formally opens for up to $20,000 in debt forgiveness. Borrowers have until December 31, 2023, to submit an application 美國學生貸款減免申請正式開放,最高可獲得 20,000 美元的債務減免。借款人必須在 2023 年 12 月 31 日之前提交申請
President Joe Biden on Monday announced that federal student loan borrowers can now apply online for up to $20,000 in debt forgiveness. “This is a game changer for millions of Americans… and it took an incredible amount of effort to get this website done in such a short time,” Biden said. People seeking to apply for student debt relief can fill out the form at StudentAid.gov. Borrowers have until December 31, 2023, to submit an application. In August, Biden announced his decision to cancel up to $10,000 in student loan debt for individuals making less than $125,000 a year or as much as $20,000 for eligible borrowers who were also Pell Grant recipients. The latest phase of his plan is expected to provide debt relief to as many as 43 million borrowers.