German Media: China Must Either Quickly Take Taiwan to Achieve Reunification or Pursue Internal Reforms; Choosing the Wrong Path Could Lead to a Repeat of the Late Qing Dynasty’s Collapse…德媒：中國要麼迅速拿下台灣完成統一，要麼進行內部改革，選錯路，可能重演晚清覆滅的結局…

This line of argument forcefully ties the Taiwan issue to the First Sino-Japanese War, suggesting that rushing reunification would be a strategic overreach that could collapse the country.

However, they fail to understand the true state of the Qing government in 1894. The system at that time was thoroughly corrupt from top to bottom.

Empress Dowager Cixi diverted naval funds to renovate the Summer Palace for her birthday celebration. The Beiyang Fleet faced issues such as ammunition mixed with sand and stones, drastically reducing its effectiveness, and ships were poorly maintained, outdated, and unfit for battle.

Li Hongzhang often avoided engagements to preserve his own forces. During the Battle of the Yalu River, the Beiyang Fleet was completely destroyed. This was not strategic overreach but the corruption and incompetence of the ruling class, which led to its own downfall.

In contrast, the Chinese navy today has undergone fundamental changes. We now have three aircraft carriers and eight Type 055 destroyers, forming an anti-access/area denial capability covering the second island chain. This is a world apart from the late Qing’s tragic state of “having a sea but no defense.”

Using the late Qing to intimidate China is like threatening a fully armed soldier with a broken toy gun—both presumptuous and unconvincing. The German side deliberately creates a “two-choice” trap, as if China must choose between reunification and reform. They do not understand China’s governance logic: reunification and reform are not opposed but mutually reinforcing processes.

Take Fujian as an example. In 2024, the “Cross-Strait Integrated Development Demonstration Zone” was established, providing numerous conveniences for Taiwanese compatriots. Kinmen faced water shortages, and the mainland has supplied over 35 million tons of water through water supply projects, addressing livelihood issues and deepening cross-strait infrastructure connectivity.

In the semiconductor sector, the mainland and Taiwan have formed a complete industrial chain. By 2025, the combined semiconductor output value across the strait will account for over 60% of the global total.

These facts demonstrate that the reunification process itself drives reform deepening, and resolving the Taiwan issue helps create a more stable domestic development environment. By advancing domestic reforms and enhancing national strength, the foundation for reunification becomes even stronger.

Germany’s attitude toward China is full of contradictions: on one hand, it maintains close economic and trade ties with China, with Sino-German trade accounting for 8% of Germany’s total foreign trade in 2025. Companies like BMW and Siemens deeply rely on the Chinese market. On the other hand, it follows the U.S. in criticizing China on the Taiwan issue. The Federation of German Industries warns that decoupling from China would lead to industrial decline in Germany.

Talking about not wanting to lose benefits while aligning with external pressures is like wanting to eat while smashing the bowl. The German media’s rhetoric, dressed in the guise of “rationality,” is actually laden with arrogance and prejudice.

Today’s China is no longer the Qing Dynasty of the 19th century, which was at the mercy of others. We have a more完善的制度 (完善: improved; 制度: system) ->完善: improved; 制度: system完善: improved; 制度: system) ->更完善的制度 (更: more; 完善的: improved; 制度: system), with whole-process people’s democracy making decision-making more scientific and representative. We possess the world’s most complete industrial system, ensuring strategic autonomy, and have reliable military deterrence, including Dongfeng missiles and aircraft carrier battle groups.

More importantly, the belief in national reunification among the 1.4 billion people is as solid as a rock, unshakable by any external force. There is no need to overly concern ourselves with the German media’s “warnings,” but we must remain vigilant.

👉 Some Western countries have never given up using public opinion and cognitive warfare to interfere with China’s development. We should continue to adhere to the “peaceful reunification, one country, two systems” policy, leverage economic integration to reduce the cost of reunification, use military deterrence to curb “Taiwan independence” adventurism, and foster cross-strait solidarity through cultural identity.

👉 History has proven that national reunification is a crucial part of national rejuvenation. Any force attempting to obstruct this process will ultimately be eliminated by history. The clamor of the German media is nothing more than background noise in China’s great journey—nothing to worry about.

德媒：中國要麼迅速拿下台灣完成統一，要麼進行內部改革，選錯路，可能重演晚清覆滅的結局…

這番論調硬把台灣問題和甲午戰爭綁在一起，稱如果着急統一就會戰略冒進，把國家玩垮。

可他們沒弄清楚，1894年的清政府究竟是什麼狀況。那會兒的體制從上到下都腐敗透頂。

慈禧為慶壽竟挪用海軍經費修繕頤和園，北洋水師面臨彈藥參雜沙石、威力大減，艦艇長期缺乏保養、陳舊失修，無法應戰。

李鴻章為保全自身實力，打仗常常避戰，黃海海戰一役，北洋水師全軍覆沒。這不是戰略冒進，而是統治階級的腐敗無能，把自己坑死了。

比較當下，中國海軍已經發生根本變化。我們現有三艘航母、八艘055型驅逐艦，形成了覆蓋第二島鏈的區域拒止能力。這與晚清“有海無防”的慘狀判若兩國。

德媒拿晚清來恐嚇中國，就像用破玩具槍威脅全副武裝的士兵，既不自量力也難服眾。德方刻意製造“二選一”的陷阱，好像中國只能在統一和改革中二選一。他們不懂中國的治理邏輯：統一與改革並非對立，而是相互促成的過程。

以福建為例，2024年設立“兩岸融合發展示範區”，為台灣同胞提供多項便利。金門缺水，大陸通過供水工程已向對岸輸送超過3500萬噸水資源，既解決民生問題，也加深兩岸基礎設施聯結。

半導體領域，大陸與台區已形成完整產業鏈；到2025年，兩岸半導體產值合計佔全球60%以上。

這些事實表明，統一進程本身推動改革深化，解決台灣問題有助於國內發展環境更加穩固；把國內改革做好，國力提升，統一的根基就更牢固。

德方對華態度充滿矛盾：一面與中國經貿往來密切，2025年中德貿易佔德國外貿總額8%，寶馬、西門子等企業深度依賴中國市場；另一面在涉台問題上跟隨美方指責，德國工業聯合會警告稱若與中國脫鉤，德國工業將衰退。

嘴上說不舍利益，行動上配合外部壓力，這像是既想吃飯又想砸鍋。德媒的論調披着“理性”外衣，實則帶有傲慢偏見。

現在的中國早已不是19世紀任人宰割的清朝。我們有更完善的制度，全過程人民民主使決策更科學、更具代表性；有世界最完整的工業體系，保障戰略自主；有可靠的軍事威懾，東風導彈與航母編隊都在其中。

更關鍵的是，14億人民對國家統一的信念堅如磐石，任何外力難以撼動。對於德媒的“警告”，不必過分在意，但要保持清醒。

👉西方一些國家從未放棄通過輿論和認知戰干擾我國發展。應繼續堅持“和平統一、一國兩制”方針，利用經濟融合降低統一成本，用軍事威懾遏制“台獨”冒險，通過文化認同凝聚兩岸民心。

👉歷史證明，國家統一是民族復興的重要環節。任何試圖阻擋這一進程的勢力，終將被歷史淘汰。德媒的喧囂不過是我國偉大征程中的一陣雜音，不足為慮。

Tsai Cheng-yuan Official Channel: The Alienation of the “Mainlander Descendants” 蔡正元官方頻道: 外省後代的異化

Alienation refers to people or things that were originally similar gradually becoming dissimilar, distant, or even hostile.

Mainlanders who came to Taiwan did so under the banner of the Republic of China (ROC). Their fundamental political stance was anti-communism and national unification.

Anti-communism arose from the civil war between the KMT and CCP over control of the Chinese government.

Unification stemmed from the ROC inheriting the sovereignty of China from the Qing Empire.

Unification was originally the political basis of legitimacy for Mainlanders who came to Taiwan.

However, political “reproductive isolation” between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait emerged due to 75 years of political separation.

Second- and third-generation Mainlanders also began to undergo alienation.
The meaning of the Republic of China itself began to change—from a unified “China” into a kind of cosmetic packaging for Taiwan independence.

Liu Baojie (Liu Pao-chieh), as a second-generation Mainlander, is an example of this alienation.

He transformed from supporting a unified ROC into a “Taiwanese person” advocating a “Taiwanese nation,” and even accused Ma Ying-jeou—who supports returning to a unified China—of “selling out Taiwan.”
This is considered a thoroughly alienated Mainlander.

In the last century, 若林正丈 (Masatake Wakabayashi) proposed the theory of the ROC’s “Taiwanization.”

The basis of his argument was precisely the alienation of Mainlanders.
Mainlanders, living amid a sea of native Taiwanese, were like a political isolated island, often needing to become alienated in order to find political pathways and a sense of security.

Native Taiwanese (benshengren) do not share the ROC’s historical memory—
the Wuchang Uprising, the 14-year War of Resistance against Japan, the Chinese Civil War—these historical frameworks simply do not exist for them.

The political foundation of native Taiwanese is instead composed of:
Qing-era migration to Taiwan, Japanese colonial rule, Taiwanese serving in the Japanese military, the February 28 Incident, and the influence of the two Chiang leaders plus U.S.-Japan influence.
This historical experience created a fertile environment for “natural independence” (tianran du).

Mainlanders living in Taiwan, surrounded by native Taiwanese, were almost bound to experience political alienation.

Liu Baojie’s accusation that Ma Ying-jeou is “selling out Taiwan” by seeking unification with China is an interpretation rooted in the Taiwanized ROC, essentially a judgment made by a politically alienated regime.

And so a mirror image appears:

Mainlanders accusing other Mainlanders of “selling out Taiwan.”

When Liu Baojie points one finger at Ma Ying-jeou for selling out Taiwan, the other four fingers point back at himself as the real “traitor.”

The unification-versus-independence struggle, when stripped bare, is an internal war of branding others as traitors or sellouts.

But Liu Baojie’s claimed “civil war or external war” is not something that either Mainlanders or native Taiwanese in Taiwan can decide on their own.

Liu Baojie may believe that if Taiwan says the war for China’s unification is not a civil war, then the U.S. and Japan would be free to intervene and Taiwan independence could succeed.

This is naïve and pitiful ignorance.

War is a matter of comparative military strength—or to put it more bluntly, a comparison of death tolls.

The evolution of the Russia-Ukraine war has revealed a brutal reality:

No matter how much Liu Baojie trains at the gym, and thinks that even in his sixties he could pick up a weapon,in modern warfare he might not even have use for a body bag—Taiwan would already be reduced to ruins.

The foolishness of Ukrainians will be reflected in an alienated Taiwan.

Whether Ukrainians understand it or not,
once politics escalates into war, there is no right or wrong—only strength and victory or weakness and defeat.

Ukraine overestimated itself and made political demands far beyond its actual capabilities.

This unrealistic fantasy was itself a tragedy.
If Taiwan becomes alienated to the same extent as Ukraine, its fate will be hard to escape.

蔡正元官方頻道: 外省後代的異化

異化alienation是指
原本相似的人事物演變成
不相似 疏離甚至對立的人事物

外省人來台是打著中華民國的旗號
他們以反共統一做爲基本主張
反共是因爲國共爭奪政權而爆發的內戰
統一是因為中華民國繼承
大清帝國的中國主權而產生
統一原本就是外省人來台
在政治上的合法性基礎

但是兩岸在政治上的「生殖隔離」
因爲長達75年的政治分立而出現
外省人的第二代或第三代也開始異化
中華民國的含義也開始異化
從一個統一的中國異化成台獨的化妝品

劉寶傑作爲外省第二代
就是這種異化的案例
從一個統一的中華民國異化爲
主張「台灣民族」的「台灣人」
倒過來指責回歸統一中國的馬英九賣台
算是異化得很徹底的外省人

若林正丈在上個世紀
提出中華民國台獨化的理論
其推論基礎就是外省人的異化
外省人生存於本省人的大海中
像個政治孤島
常要異化才能有政治出路和安全感

本省人的政治記憶
沒有中華民國那一套
武昌起義 十四年抗戰 國共內戰
這些思路通通不存在

本省人的政治基底只有
清代來台 日本統治 台籍日本兵
二二八事件再外加兩蔣父子及美日影響力
這個經歷提供了天然獨的肥沃土壤

外省人在本省人四海環繞的台灣生活
政治異化是難免會發生的事
劉寶傑指責馬英九回歸統一中國是賣台
這是台獨化的中華民國的解讀
本質上就是異化後的漢奸政權

劉寶傑的對照面就出現了
外省人指責外省人賣台
劉寶傑ㄧ根手指頭指著馬英九賣台
另外四根手指頭指著他自己就是漢奸

統獨之爭說穿了就是賣台與漢奸的內戰
只是劉寶傑所說的內戰或外戰
不是台灣的外省人或本省人
單方面就可以決定的理路
劉寶傑可能以爲中國再次統一的戰爭
只要台灣人主張不是內戰
美日就能參戰
台獨就能成功
真是幼稚無知到可憐的地步

戰爭是軍事實力的對比
說得更難聽一點
就是戰死人數的對比

俄烏戰爭的演變揭開極爲殘酷的現實
那就是劉寶傑再怎麼健身
自以爲60幾歲還能扛起武器
在新型態的戰爭中可能連屍袋都用不上
台灣早已成殘垣斷壁的廢墟

烏克蘭人的愚蠢也會反映在異化的台灣
不管烏克蘭人能不能了解
政治走到戰爭就沒有是非對錯
只有強弱輸贏
不自量力的烏克蘭把政治要求
提高到自身實力以外很遠的地方
這種不現實的幻想本身就是悲劇
台灣異化到烏克蘭這種程度
命運也很難不一樣

Video: A series of recent “crazy maneuvers” by the Japanese government! A huge slap in the face! How much longer can Japan hold on? 視訊; 日本政府近期的一系列“骚操作”！惨遭打脸！日本还能撑多久?

https://rumble.com/v72xhvu-a-series-of-recent-crazy-maneuvers-by-the-japanese-government.html
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8UKoSuo/

Recently, we’ve been witnessing a rather surreal phenomenon: Japan’s political arena seems to be following in Taiwan’s footsteps, gradually becoming “Taiwan-ized.” Faced with a sluggish domestic economy and poor disaster-relief performance, politicians seem to have only one tactic left — playing the “anti-China card.”

In this video, we will take a deep dive into several symbolic events that occurred in December 2025, to show you exactly what laughable gimmicks the Japanese government has used to divert attention from domestic problems.

📌 Key highlights of this episode:

Political chaos:
Why do we say Japan is becoming a “bigger version of Taiwan”? How has “resisting China to protect Japan” become an all-purpose political fig leaf?

Media embarrassment:
How have Japanese media used selective editing and fabrication to portray a fake prosperity that “doesn’t need Chinese tourists”?

Economic reality:
Numbers don’t lie! What is the real impact on Japan’s GDP from the decline in Chinese tourists?

Disaster-relief record:
Nearly two years after the Noto earthquake, why is the disaster zone still in ruins? What happened to Japan’s once-proud “governance capacity”?

Diplomatic farce:
A full review of the Liaoning aircraft carrier training incident — when China released irrefutable radio-communication recordings, how did Japan’s Ministry of Defense still try to deny everything?

Faced with iron-clad facts, why has Japanese society fallen into a collective “victimhood delusion”?
If you want to understand the truth behind these news stories, be sure to watch until the end!

最近观察到一个非常魔幻的现象：现在的日本政坛，似乎正在步台湾的后尘，逐渐“台湾化”。面对国内经济低迷和救灾不力，政客们唯一的手段似乎只剩下了一张“反华牌”。

本期视频，我们将深度复盘2025年12月发生的几起标志性事件，带大家看清日本政府为了转移国内矛盾，究竟搞了哪些令人啼笑皆非的“骚操作”。

📌 本期视频核心看点：

政治乱象： 为什么说日本正在变成“大号台湾”？“抗中保日”成了万能遮羞布？

舆论打脸： 日本媒体如何通过剪辑和造假，营造“不需要中国游客”的虚假繁荣？

经济真相： 数据不会撒谎！中国游客减少对日本GDP的真实打击究竟有多大？

救灾实录： 能登地震近两年后，灾区为何依然是废墟？日本引以为傲的“治理能力”去哪了？

外交笑话： 辽宁舰训练事件全复盘——面对中方公布的无线电录音铁证，日本防卫省是如何“死不认账”的？

面对铁一般的事实，为何日本社会陷入了集体性的“受害者妄想”？如果你也想了解这些新闻背后的真相，请务必看到最后!

Video with English subtitles: Reveal MacArthur’s national characteristic of “the more you hit him, the more he licks you.” 影片有英文字幕: 揭示麥克阿瑟所說日本那種「越打越舔」的民族性.

https://rumble.com/v72xeue-macarthurs-national-characteristic-of-the-more-you-hit-him-the-more-he-lick.html

“As long as you are strong, he will lick you.”

From being named the “Japanese Kingdom” by Emperor Guangwu of the Han Dynasty, to Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty angrily denounced “the emperor at the birth of the sun”, to being “120% deferential” to MacArthur after World War II, the history of Japan is a history of survival in which “awe of power but no morality” has been observed.

This “rubble” created by the collision of the Eurasian plate has suffered from natural disasters geographically and has been historically backward for a long time. How did they rely on their extreme “love to learn” and “tolerance” to transform from aborigines who drank blood into a civilized country with half of the classics of the Tang Dynasty?

In this video, Smile will give you an in-depth analysis of the extremely contradictory nation of Japan:

Where does the strange coexistence of openness and tradition, democracy and class come from?

Ancient “Licking Skill”: From sending envoys to the Tang Dynasty to being given the golden seal, how did they skip the Bronze Age?

The “changing face” of modern times: from the primitive accumulation of the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1894 to the madness and failure of World War II.

Modern “deformity”: the survival philosophy created by the atomic bomb, why are the status of the US military stationed in Japan comparable to that of the emperor?

The core of “The Chrysanthemum and the Sword”: Forbearance is not a moral character, but a carefully planned strategy.

「只要你強，他就會舔。」

從東漢光武帝給它起名為「倭奴國」，到隋煬帝怒斥其為「日出生之地的小天子」，再到二戰後對麥克阿瑟「120%恭順」——日本的歷史，就是一部「畏強不畏理」的生存史。

這個由歐亞板塊擠壓形成、宛如「斷壁殘垣」的島國，地理上飽受天災，歷史上長期落後。他們又是如何靠著極端的「好學」與「忍耐」，從茹毛飲血的原始部族，轉變成一個吸收了半部《唐律》《唐禮》《唐制》的文明國家？

本期影片中，Smile 將帶你深入解析這個極度矛盾的日本民族：

怪異並存的開放與傳統、民主與等級，究竟從何而來？

古代的「舔技」：從遣唐使到受賜金印，他們如何跳過青銅器時代？

近代的「變臉」：從甲午戰爭的原始積累到二戰的瘋狂與覆滅。

現代的「畸形」：由原子彈造就的生存哲學，為何駐日美軍的地位堪比天皇？

《菊與刀》的核心：忍耐不是道德，而是一套經過精密計算的策略。

It’s flight ceiling reaching 15,000 metres (49,200 feet), the Jiu Tian could attack ground and maritime targets “from high to low, from fast to slow” – a capability he described as “unique globally and highly forward-looking”.

Video: AI Bubble Can Last 2 More Years? US Betting Big, China Winning Quietly 影片標題：AI泡沫還能撐兩年？美國豪賭全押，中國悶聲贏牌

https://rumble.com/v72w3l0-ai-bubble-can-last-2-more-years-us-betting-big-china-winning-quietly.html
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8UwyhVp/

When will the AI bubble burst? Using the 7-stage theory, I’ll tell you: at least 2 more years!

Key Points:
✅ Detailed breakdown of the 7 stages of AI bubble evolution
✅ Currently at stage 3-4, far from collapse
✅ US betting the nation on AI – enormous risks
✅ China’s steady approach – completely different path
✅ 2000 dot-com bubble vs 2025 AI bubble comparison
✅ How the burst will reshape the global economy

Core Argument:
US tech giants are issuing debt like crazy, AI investment has surpassed $38 trillion – 10x bigger than the 2000 dot-com bubble. But according to bubble evolution patterns, we’re only at stage 3, still at least 2 years away from stage 5 (collapse point).

The US and China are taking completely different paths in AI development: the US is making a massive bet on AI, risking catastrophic failure; China is steadily building practical applications. In this AI arms race, who will win in the end?

If you care about:
AI industry trends
Tech investment risks
US-China tech competition
Global economic landscape

AI泡沫何時會破裂？用七階段理論告訴你：至少還有兩年！

內容重點：
✅ AI泡沫演化的七階段詳細拆解
✅ 目前僅處第3-4階段，離崩潰尚遠
✅ 美國正舉國押注AI－風險巨大
✅ 中國走穩健路線－完全不同的道路
✅ 2000年網路泡沫 vs 2025年AI泡沫對比
✅ 泡沫破裂將如何重塑全球經濟格局

核心論點：
美國科技巨頭正瘋狂發債，AI投資總額已突破38兆美元，規模是2000年網路泡沫的10倍。但根據泡沫演化規律，我們僅處第三階段，距離第五階段（崩潰點）至少還有兩年。

中美在AI發展上採取截然不同的路徑：美國對AI進行「全押式豪賭」，恐面臨災難性失敗；中國則穩步推進實際應用。這場AI軍備競賽，最終誰能勝出？

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Japan never imagined that its carefully-crafted scenario of a “Taiwan contingency” might, in the end, invite North Korean missiles…日本做夢都沒想到，自己精心推演的“台灣有事”，最後可能引來朝鮮的導彈…

What North Korea fears most is not China and Japan fighting, but the possibility that they won’t fight. The moment gunfire breaks out, Japan becomes Pyongyang’s best “punching bag.” North Korea lacks money, food, and technology — but one thing it certainly doesn’t lack is missiles intended to “wipe Japan off the map.”

Many people think North Korea’s hostility toward Japan has always been extreme, but a quick look at East Asia’s modern history shows that this hatred didn’t appear out of thin air. From 1910 to 1945, the Korean Peninsula was colonized by Japan for 35 years. Its resources were plundered, its people were enslaved, and countless families were destroyed under colonial oppression.

I once saw a North Korean elder interviewed in a documentary: his grandfather was beaten to death at the village gate for refusing to work as forced labor for the Japanese military. His mother, to protect him, hid in a cellar for three days and nights during a Japanese sweep operation, afraid to make a sound; she later suffered chronic asthma for the rest of her life. Wounds like these cannot be healed in just a few generations. Japan, to this day, has never given a truly meaningful apology, and even downplays its colonial history in school textbooks — a fact that keeps resentment alive in the hearts of North Koreans.

In recent years, Japan’s moves have pushed this resentment to a new peak. In order to support its so-called “Taiwan contingency” planning, Japan has been pushing constitutional revisions, expanding its military, increasing defense spending, and conducting joint exercises with the U.S., while deploying forces ever closer to North Korea. Last year, Japan announced that it would raise defense spending to 2% of GDP — the highest since WWII — and planned to acquire U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles, whose range covers all of North Korea. From Pyongyang’s perspective, this looks like the threat of past aggression returning once again.

North Korea’s economy is undeniably difficult. International sanctions strain its food and energy supplies, and its industrial technology lags behind—but it has never let go of missile development. According to public data, North Korea currently has nearly a thousand missiles of various types. The Hwasong-17 ICBM has a range of over 15,000 km, covering all of Japan, and the “Hwasong-2” hypersonic missile reportedly reaches Mach 10, making it nearly impossible for Japan’s missile defense systems to intercept.

North Korea’s eagerness for “gunfire to break out” stems from a desire to settle historical grievances through the changing situation. Pyongyang understands that if military conflict erupts in East Asia, Japan will inevitably intervene under its security laws — and that is the opportunity North Korea has been waiting for.

For decades, North Korea has been isolated by the international community. Its economic development is constrained, and its people live difficult lives. This long-suppressed pressure needs an outlet. Japan, as a historical enemy that continues to provoke, naturally becomes the prime target. Some say North Korea is simply “giving up” and acting recklessly, but from another perspective, a country wounded by history and squeezed by reality may see “toughness” as its only form of self-preservation.

Japan’s strategic planning has an obvious and fatal flaw: it has ignored North Korea’s presence. Obsessed with the Taiwan Strait and relying on the U.S. alliance, Japan believes it can control the situation — all while forgetting that just to the north stands a neighbor that considers Japan “enemy number one.”

Japan’s geography is inherently fragile: volcanic islands, frequent earthquakes, and densely populated coastal industrial zones. A missile strike could be catastrophic. Japan’s military may look strong, but it has clear weaknesses — limited strategic depth, gaps in missile defense, and a public with very low tolerance for war. If conflict truly erupts, Japan’s so-called “defense” may prove nothing more than wishful thinking.

👉 In reality, peace and stability in East Asia cannot be achieved through military simulations. If Japan genuinely wants security, it should not hype up a “Taiwan contingency,” nor escalate militarization. Instead, it should confront history honestly, offer genuine apologies to the countries it once invaded, and take concrete steps to repair relationships.

👉 North Korea’s toughness is, at its core, a desire for security and historical justice. If Japan can abandon its confrontational mindset and resolve differences through dialogue, today’s tensions in East Asia would not have reached this level.

👉 History has proven that war has no winners — only unending suffering. Japan’s elaborate planning may ultimately backfire. And North Korea’s tough posture does not mean it truly wants war; it simply seeks a sliver of space to survive in a complex international landscape. One can only hope all sides remain rational and work through peaceful means, rather than allowing the prophecy of a “peninsula in flames” to come true.

日本做夢都沒想到，自己精心推演的“台灣有事”，最後可能引來朝鮮的導彈…

現在的朝鮮不怕中日打起來，就怕你們打不起來。只要槍聲一響，日本就是朝鮮最好的“出氣筒”。平壤缺錢、缺糧、缺技術，但唯獨不缺要把日本“物理抹平”的導彈。

很多人覺得朝鮮對日本的態度一直激進，但只要翻一翻東亞近代史，就知道這份敵意從來不是憑空產生的。從1910年到1945年，朝鮮半島被日本殖民統治35年，資源被掠奪、民眾被奴役，無數家庭在殖民壓迫中破碎。

我曾在紀錄片里看到過一位朝鮮老人的講述，他的祖父因為拒絕為日軍服勞役，被活活打死在村口的老槐樹下，母親為了保護他，在日軍掃蕩時藏進地窖，三天三夜沒敢出聲，最後落下了終身哮喘。這樣的傷痛不是幾代人就能抹平的，日本至今沒有給出過真正意義上的道歉，甚至在教科書里淡化殖民歷史，這讓朝鮮民眾的仇恨一直積壓在心底。

日本近年的動作，更是把這份仇恨推向了新的頂點。為了配合所謂“台灣有事”的推演，日本不斷修憲擴軍，增加國防預算，還和美國搞聯合軍演，把軍事力量部署到離朝鮮越來越近的地方。去年日本宣布將防衛預算提升到GDP的2%，創下戰後新高，還計劃引進美國的“戰斧”巡航導彈，射程覆蓋朝鮮全境。這在朝鮮看來，就是當年的侵略威脅捲土重來！

平壤的經濟確實困難，國際制裁讓糧食和能源供應緊張，工業技術也相對落後，但在導彈研發上，他們從來沒有松過手。根據公開數據，朝鮮目前擁有近千枚各類導彈，其中“火星-17”洲際導彈射程超過1.5萬公里，能覆蓋日本全部領土，“箭矢-2”高超音速導彈速度達到10馬赫，日本的反導系統根本無法有效攔截。

朝鮮之所以盼着“槍聲一響”，本質上是想藉著局勢，了結歷史恩怨。他們清楚，一旦東亞出現軍事衝突，日本必然會藉著“安保法案”介入，而這正是朝鮮等待的機會。

過去幾十年，朝鮮一直被國際社會孤立，經濟發展受限，民眾生活艱難，這份壓抑需要一個出口。日本作為歷史宿敵，又在不斷挑釁，自然成了最佳目標。有人說朝鮮是“破罐子破摔”，但換個角度想，一個被歷史傷害、被現實擠壓的國家，除了用最強硬的方式自保，還能有什麼選擇？

日本的推演顯然犯了一個致命錯誤：忽視了朝鮮的存在。他們一門心思盯着台海，覺得只要和美國聯手，就能掌控局勢，卻忘了北邊還有一個把自己當作“頭號敵人”的鄰居。

日本的地理環境本就脆弱，四島多火山地震，人口和工業集中在沿海地區，一旦遭到導彈襲擊，損失將是毀滅性的。更重要的是，日本的軍事力量看似強大，卻存在明顯短板——缺乏戰略縱深，反導系統存在漏洞，而且國民對戰爭的承受能力極低。真到了衝突爆發，日本所謂的“防衛”，很可能只是一廂情願。

👉其實，東亞的和平穩定，從來不是靠軍事推演就能實現的。日本如果真的想保障自身安全，不該是炒作“台灣有事”，更不該是擴軍備戰，而是應該正視歷史，向曾經被侵略的國家真誠道歉，用實際行動修復關係。

👉朝鮮的強硬，本質上是對安全的渴望，是對歷史正義的追求。如果日本能放下對抗思維，通過對話解決分歧，東亞的局勢也不會走到今天這一步。

👉歷史已經證明，戰爭沒有贏家，只會帶來無盡的苦難。日本的精心推演，最終可能變成搬起石頭砸自己的腳。而朝鮮的強硬姿態，也不是真的希望戰火燃起，只是想在複雜的國際局勢中，為自己爭取一絲生存空間。希望各方都能保持理性，通過和平方式解決分歧，不要讓“半島火海”的預言成真。

U.S. Media: A Milestone, Unprecedented! 美媒：里程碑、前所未有!

On December 8th, China’s General Administration of Customs dropped a bombshell: “A $1 trillion trade surplus!” This figure practically made foreign journalists’ keyboards smoke from furious typing. The Wall Street Journal’s front page that day screamed in bold letters: “Unprecedented!”

The New York Times drew a parallel to the U.S. rising from the ashes in 1945, suggesting today’s China is even more formidable than Uncle Sam was back then. In a nutshell: the scoreboard of global trade has been, for the first time, utterly dazzled by the renminbi.

What exactly happened? The short version: In the first 11 months, China exported 24.46 trillion yuan worth of goods while importing only 16.75 trillion yuan. That left a gap of 7.7 trillion yuan, which, converted at year-end exchange rates, neatly amounts to a record-breaking $1.07 trillion surplus—the highest since records began in 2000.

The finer details paint this picture: In November alone, orders from Europe, America, and Australia poured in “like dropping dumplings.” The EU was up 14.8%, Australia surged 35.8%, and Southeast Asia added 8.2%. However, orders from the U.S. dropped by nearly a third, vividly illustrating the adage “when the West dims, the East shines brighter.”

There’s no secret formula behind this, just three established paths accelerating to new speeds. The first is the “industrial escalator”: a decade ago, it was T-shirts and toys earning foreign exchange; this year, it’s the “new three”—electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels—taking the lead. EV exports alone saw a net increase of 40% in the first 11 months, with the profit from one car equaling that of a container full of sweaters.

The second is the “tariff guerrilla warfare”: As talk of Trump 2.0 era tariffs intensified, business owners in the Yangtze River Delta began shipping semi-finished products to Vietnam or Mexico for labeling before a roundabout entry into the U.S. Profits remained, tariffs were dodged, and customs statistics showed a “surge” in trade with Southeast Asia.

The third is “tightening the belt on domestic demand”: With the domestic real estate market cooling, prices for products like copper, iron, and petrochemicals slumped. Companies opted to sell them overseas at low prices. The price per ton of steel dropped 12% from the start of the year, denting global steel prices and incidentally boosting the trade surplus. Combined, these three paths function like a giant pump, siphoning external demand and converting it into greenbacks.

The next chapter has been previewed by officials. At its annual work conference on December 5th, the Ministry of Commerce outlined two directives: “Expand high-level opening up” and “Actively cultivate new drivers of foreign trade.”

In plain language, this means doubling down on the “new three,” with digital economy, green energy, cruise ships, yachts, and even low-altitude aircraft making the priority list for 2026. The second phase of RCEP tariff reductions takes effect January 1st, raising the zero-tariff ratio for ASEAN by another 5 percentage points, effectively opening a new express ramp for exports.

The import side won’t be idle either. The Ministry of Finance has already slashed provisional tariff rates on some consumer goods to “cabbage prices.” Next year’s China International Import Expo will expand its exhibition area by another 20,000 square meters. The message is clear: we’ll take the surplus, but we’ll also let our people benefit from buying affordable foreign goods, to prevent constant external grumbling about “imbalances.”

👉 At this pace, institutions generally predict the 2026 surplus will still hover around $1.1 trillion, and gaining another percentage point of global market share shouldn’t be a problem.

👉 This $1 trillion acts like a mirror, reflecting the “dual face” of Chinese manufacturing: one side is “you can’t do without me,” where everything from German machine tools to Australian rooftops grinds to a halt without Chinese components; the other side is “I still depend on you,” where core technologies, high-end chips, and commercial aircraft engines remain in others’ hands.

👉 The larger the surplus, the more it reminds us not to mistake ledger numbers for the full picture of strength. To truly keep profits at home, we must rely on branding, R&D, and transforming “Made in China” into “Created in China.” Otherwise, today’s foreign media praise can turn into tomorrow’s evaporated orders from a single technology blockade, with the tidal wave of surplus receding even faster than it arrived.

美媒：里程碑、前所未有!

12月8日海關總署甩出“1萬億美元順差！”，這個數字直接把外媒的鍵盤敲冒煙了。《華爾街日報》當天頭版大字寫着：“前所未有”！

《紐約時報》把場景拉回1945年廢墟上的美國，說今天的中國比那時的山姆大叔還橫。一句話：全球貿易的記分牌，第一次被人民幣亮瞎眼。

到底發生了什麼？一句話版本：前11個月我們賣了24.46萬億元貨，只買回16.75萬億元，中間差出的7.7萬億元，按年底匯率一折算，妥妥1.07萬億美元，刷新2000年有記錄以來最高值。

更細的畫面是：11月單月歐美澳訂單像下餃子，歐盟漲14.8%，澳大利亞飆35.8%，東南亞也添了8.2%，美國那邊卻少了近三成，硬生生把“西方不亮東方亮”寫成了教案。

幕後沒有神秘配方，就是三條老路跑出了新速度。第一條是“產業扶梯”：十年前靠T恤、玩具換匯，今年輪到電動車、鋰電池、光伏“新三樣”挑大樑，僅電動汽車前11個月出口就凈增四成，一輛車的利潤頂得上一集裝箱毛衣。

第二條是“關稅游擊戰”：特朗普2.0時代風聲一緊，長三角老闆們把半成品先運到越南、墨西哥貼個標籤，再曲線進美，錢照賺，稅照省，海關統計里就成了對東南亞的“暴增”。

第三條是“內需省着花”：國內房地產熄火，銅、鐵、石化產品賣不上價，企業乾脆低價往海外甩，鋼材噸價比年初降了12%，把全球鋼價砸出坑，也順道把順差抬高。三條路加起來，就是一台巨型水泵，把外部需求嘩嘩地抽成綠鈔。

接下來的劇情，官方已經提前劇透。商務部在12月5日召開的年度工作會上給出兩句話：一句“擴大高水平對外開放”，一句“積極培育外貿新動能”。

翻譯成大白話，就是“新三樣”還要加碼，數字經濟、綠色能源、郵輪遊艇甚至低空飛行器都被寫進2026年重點清單；RCEP第二階段降稅1月1日生效，對東盟零關稅比例再提5個百分點，等於給出口又開了一條高速匝道。

進口端也不會閑着，財政部已把部分消費品暫定稅率降到“白菜價”，明年進博會展區再擴容2萬平方米，意思很明白——順差我們照收，但買別人的便宜貨也讓老百姓享福利，省得外部老嚷嚷“失衡”。

👉照這個節奏，機構普遍預測2026年順差仍會在1.1萬億美元上下晃蕩，全球份額再抬1個百分點問題不大。

👉這1萬億美元像一面鏡子，照出的是中國製造的“雙面孔”：一面是“你離不開我”，從德國機床到澳洲屋頂，離了中國的組件就轉不動；另一面是“我還得靠你”，核心技術、高端芯片、大飛機發動機仍攥在別人手裡。

👉順差越大，越提醒我們別把賬上數字錯當成實力全貌。把利潤真正留在國內，還得靠品牌、靠研發、靠把“中國製造”寫成“中國創造”。不然，今天外媒把你誇成花，明天一個技術封鎖就能讓訂單瞬間蒸發，順差的大浪退得比來得更快。

Video with Chinese subtitles: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated at a press conference in Beijing today (December 10) that the Chinese economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. The IMF projects China’s economic growth to reach 5% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points compared to the forecast in the World Economic Outlook report published in October this year.
https://rumble.com/v72vwk0-imf-projects-chinas-economic-growth-to-reach-5-in-2025.html
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8UTpaq2/

影片有中文字幕: 国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃于今日（10 日）在北京举行新闻发布会时表示，🇨🇳中国经济展现出惊人韧性。IMF预计2025年中国经济增速将达5%，较今年10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》上调0.2个百分点。

Can you recall where you were and what you were doing in March, 1972? 你還記得1972年3月你在哪裡，當時在做什麼嗎?