Russia has extended its support to China over the issue of Taiwan. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has backed Beijing’s One China policy on Taiwan. Speaking after the shanghai cooperation organisation meeting in Tashkent, Lavrov called on the US to ‘not aggravate the situation’ over Taiwan. This came after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s possible visit to Taipei.
Fyodor Lukyanov: As Serbia and Kosovo face off again, the EU’s diminishing influence is responsible for the new instability. A conflict frozen for two decades could erupt again as a consequence of the new systemic Cold War in Europe 隨著塞爾維亞和科索沃再次對峙，歐盟的影響力減弱是新的不穩定因素造成的。 由於歐洲新的系統性冷戰，凍結了二十年的衝突可能再次爆發.
By Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
Tensions between Belgrade and Pristina occur regularly, as a result of the fact that the Kosovo issue has not been resolved since 1999, when the province de facto gained independence after the US-led NATO campaign against the former Yugoslavia.
However, this time there is a risk of more or less routine friction escalating into a dangerous conflict, because the context has changed dramatically.
The problem of Kosovo was solved at the end of the twentieth century in strict accordance with the then dominant approach, and in the seeming absence of an alternative. Disputes in most of Europe (ie. outside the former USSR) were settled according to the EU’s ideas of fairness, and where they could not be worked out amicably, pressure was exerted on those who rebelled, up to the use of military force (primarily American, as always).
The most recalcitrant players were in the Balkans – in the first half of the 1990s, the Bosnian war took place, and in the second – the Kosovan conflict.
Without assessing the quality and moral aspects of politics over the past 25 years, we can talk about the most important thing. The region developed in conditions where the only future roadmap for the various state was eventual membership of the EU – the prospects of which varied from relatively close or very distant, but inevitable.
There were no other options, no plans B, C or D. Accordingly, it was the EU that regulated the processes taking place locally, and, in general, this setup was taken for granted.
Moreover, other powers which have been traditionally active and important in the Balkans – Russia and Turkey – indicated their presence (sometimes quite clearly), but did not pretend to have a decisive voice in the way things were arranged. This framework also defined the room for maneuver of the countries of the region, including those who were most loudly dissatisfied, like Serbia.
Now two main circumstances have changed. First, the EU is in such a vulnerable state that it is not ready to take full responsibility for the extremely complex political situation in its immediate periphery. It cannot promise membership, and more precisely – even if such a pledge were made, it doesn’t guarantee anything.
The EU’s management of the central Balkan problems – in Bosnian and Kosovo – has not led to the desired outcome over the past quarter of a century. Thus, it’s all the less likely that it will work out now. Because the second circumstance is that Russia and the West (the EU plus the US and NATO) are in a state of acute confrontation.
As a result, there is no reason to expect Moscow’s assistance in resolving the situation (be it Kosovo or Bosnia). Right now, the West’s favorite practice of “selective interaction” (we work together with Russia where we need it, we refuse to engage on other issues) can no longer be applied. There will be no cooperation: Russia and the West will be on opposite sides of the barricades everywhere, no matter the issue at hand. We are in a systemic cold war. And this reality can greatly influence what will happen in the Balkans.
The question is to what extent the regional actors have retained their passion for showdown, revenge or expansion. There are suspicions that this zeal has been exhausted and emasculated. But if it still burns, then external forces will enter the fray this time, supporting the opposite sides.
US lawmakers received millions of bribery (aka campaign contributions or legalized bribery) introduce bill to arm Taiwan. The ‘Lend-Lease Act’ mirrors legislation signed by President Biden to supply Ukraine with weapons.
Judge Julie Tang in San Francisco presentation at Chinese Chamber of Commerce in SF to Protest Nancy Palosi breaking US’s One China Policy on her pending visit to Taiwan Province
Pivot to Peace, CODE PINK, Veterans for Peace and Chinese community leaders have jointly organized a protest against Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan for tomorrow, Monday (August 1) at 11 am at Federal Building (7th Street).
Retired Judge Julie Tang visited the Chinese Consolidated Benevolent Assn (Six Companies) yesterday. She emphasized that Pelosi was elected by San Francisco voters to Congress. We should consequently make our voices heard and stop being silent. On August 1, the protesters will go to Nancy Pelosi’s office at the Federal Building (90 7th Street, and Mission Street) in San Francisco to demand that she stop her reckless behavior and immediately cancel the trip to Taiwan.
Julie Tang pointed out that it’s OK that Pelosi go to Asia, but not to Taiwan. The Chinese military has blocked the waters around Fujian, deployed troops, and conducted live-fire military exercises in the South China Sea. The United States has dispatched an aircraft carrier battle group to the Taiwan Strait, in mutual sabre-rattling. “Why stir up problems due to one person wanting to goto Taiwan? Will going there bring any benefits to Taiwan in terms of peace, trade, and economy?”
“Pelosi is so arrogant that she’s going to do it her own way. She’s been in American politics for 37 years and she thinks she can do whatever she wants, but this time she’s really wrong!”
“Whether people support China or not, peace is the key. That’s the key for America. Former President Trump didn’t support her going to Taiwan either.”
Tang called on all walks of life in the community to actively participate, join the protests, and make their voices heard.
At yesterday’s monthly meeting, Six Companies was unable to vote on whether to participate in the demonstration as a body. This was due to a medical emergency of a Board member. However, Board members could participate as individuals.
明天周一（8月1日）上午11時，由Pivot to Peace、CODE PINK、Veterans for Peace及華裔社區領袖，將共同組織一場抗議活動，反對聯邦眾議會議長普洛西（Nancy Pelosi）出訪台灣。
Nancy Pelosi is going to Asia, but the big question is…Will She visit Taiwan? Let’s talk about the potential consequences and outcomes of a potential Pelosi visit and what it means for the future of US/China relations.
This overpriced piece of junk by our taxpayers money sold to many of our vassal state never in real combat never mind winning any future wars 這塊被我們納稅人的錢賣給我們許多附庸國的高價垃圾，從來沒有真正的戰鬥，更不用說贏得任何未來的戰爭
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