Putin counterattacks the hard-to-return America by Shui Binghe 普京逆襲積重難返的美國 作者：水秉和 5/28/2022
Foreword : This article is put forward after sorting out some thoughts I wrote about the Russian-Ukrainian war in the past six months. It is somewhat repetitive, but it is relatively complete, and some new observations have been added. I pointed out in particular that the Russian-Ukrainian war was a war in which almost all the white nations of the world participated, including the permanently neutral Switzerland and Sweden. This is cannibalism between them, no more slaughter, looting of non-white nations. This is important because in addition to causing the destruction of Ukraine, it will inevitably consume and weaken the national power of Europe, Russia and the United States, and European consumption is likely to be difficult to restore. Attrition in Russia and the United States will also see them gradually fall behind the Asian powers. This is a five-hundred-year change, no trivial matter.
At the same time, the national strength of China and India, which are not involved in the war, will move forward. Because of its refusal to sanction Russia, India bought Russian oil at a price of $30 a barrel cheaper than the market price, and vigorously developed its economy, so that it can not only recover from the disaster of the new crown pneumonia, but also grow faster than China. What about China? Not only will it benefit from the massive acceptance of resources that Russia cannot sell to Europe, but also the huge Russian consumer market that has been abandoned by Europe and the United States.
Europeans have many advantages, but their history tells us that they fought very cruelly, and they did not know how to stop. Diffusion, the vitality is lost, so I have to stop. From the Crusades against Islam in the eleventh century, to the endless Hundred Years War, Eighty Years War and Thirty Years War between Catholics and Protestants, as well as the first and second world wars in modern times. This Russian-Ukrainian war may not escape the same fate. That is to say, after controlling the fate of the world for 500 years, white people are likely to voluntarily withdraw from the position of leading the world.
An interesting question is: will they suddenly become conscious, alert, and awakened, and then pull back from the precipice and shake hands to make peace?
This seems to be a capability they sorely lack.
For China and India, as well as other developing countries, this is a very rare period of strategic opportunity, especially for China, if it can grasp the opportunity well, then the future should be quite bright.
America has many unsolved problems
Many old and Chinese people have a special love for the United States, and believe that no matter what the United States does, it is, or the vast majority are, right; at the same time, they believe that the United States is strong and sustainable, and it is a treasure land where we and our descendants can live and live. . This used to be my belief too. More and more, however, I feel that the United States has a number of big, unresolved problems that undermine my original belief in it. For example, the struggle between gun owners and those who prohibit guns: Because of the Second Amendment to the Constitution, which allows people to own guns, and it is extremely difficult to amend the Constitution, gun prohibition is a long-term unsolved problem, and shooting cases continue to increase . In addition, the battle between those who believe life begins in the embryo and supporters of legalized abortion involves religious beliefs, and the Supreme Court’s impending overturn of its historic early decision to allow abortion will create further divisions in the United States .
Others, such as the racial issue between black and white, involve the history of slavery; the immigration issue involves the fate of the hundreds of thousands of people of color waiting to enter the southern border; the 30 trillion national debt, and the impending stagflation, involve …Etc., etc. For too long, as the rivalry between the two parties has grown sharper, these issues will only continue to ossify with no prospect of resolution.
A more fundamental problem exists in parallel with these difficult problems, that is, the United States has transformed from the largest manufacturing country to a post-industrial country, with manufacturing accounting for less than 20% of US GDP. Its current economic dependence has been transferred to financial operations, consumption, medical, military-industrial enterprises, as well as high-tech product innovation, design and high-end product manufacturing. Among them, financial hegemony supported by military hegemony, including the control of SWIFT, the settlement mechanism of international trade, has always been the means by which the United States can sanction and suppress other countries. All of this is now in crisis, because….
Biden’s involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian war
The Russian-Ukrainian war has had an even worse effect on the above-mentioned difficult problems. Although it is not as intricate and deep-rooted as the above problems, its influence is more immediate, and its subversion is imminent. This is directly related to Biden’s use of financial sanctions as a weapon against Putin. In this regard, we might as well start from 2014.
There was a mass movement in Ukraine in 2014, and a coup d’état was triggered by the mass movement. The reason why the peaceful mass movement turned into a violent conflict is because of the intervention of external forces, that is, the color revolution led by the United States, the purpose of which is to drive out the legally elected pro-Russian government and replace it with a pro-American government. The coup succeeded, and Putin fought back, taking Crimea.
Subsequently, in 2015, under the coordination of Germany and France (without the participation of the United States), Russia and Ukraine signed the Minsk Agreement, in which the Ukrainian side promised to respect the two states in eastern Ukraine – Luhansk and Donetsk – autonomy. However, Ukraine’s pro-U.S. government subsequently refused to implement the agreement, leaving the two eastern states, mainly of Russian descent, under constant attack by the Ukrainian army, shrinking the territory, and the local war is estimated to have killed about 14,000 people in the eastern region. The reason Putin attacked Ukraine in the name of a special military operation was to protect the residents of these two states, which was the most direct trigger of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
I have pointed out that the coup in Ukraine was a task that Vice President Biden personally took charge of, following orders from President Obama. In his 2017 autobiography “Promise Me, Dad”, he mentioned his active involvement in Ukraine’s affairs (of course he did not say that he led the coup). Biden therefore has deep ties with Ukraine. Victoria Nuland, the then assistant secretary of state for European affairs, was an American official directly involved in the Square Movement, and Nuland’s husband was a think tank boss named Robert Kagan, who was called Newland. The Godfather of Conservatism. The boss is the national teacher of Bush’s team through Vice President Chaney, Secretary of Defense Rosefield and a group of other believers in the Department of Defense, State Department and think tanks, including his wife Newland, and Hillary and now. Biden, who established the neoconservative policy that the United States has implemented since 2001.
The neo-conservative policy, simply put, is that the United States should take advantage of being the only superpower after the victory of the Cold War, using force, such as in Afghanistan and Iraq, or using mass movements, commonly called color revolutions, such as in Libya, Syria, Georgia, Ukraine, etc., to overthrow non-democratic regimes in the world and promote their democratization and pro-beautification. The eastward expansion of NATO is a major element of neoconservatism.
It is precisely because Biden is in charge of Ukraine’s democratic transition and pro-American transition that Ukraine is very important to him personally and even to his son Hunter, who later made a lot of money in Ukraine. That is to say, the fundamental reason for the Russian-Ukrainian war is that it is supported by neoconservative theories behind it, coupled with Biden’s personal sense of mission, so it is destined to be an unavoidable war.
The evil that Trump and Biden planted
In 2016, Trump unexpectedly defeated Hillary Clinton and entered the White House. After he came to power, he planted several more causes. First, he withdrew from the Iran nuclear ban agreement; second, he fought a trade war with China; third, he tried to subvert the legitimately elected government of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, but he failed, but he admitted the opposition. The leader, Juan Guaido, is the country’s legitimate president.
In 2020, Biden defeated Trump to become the 46th President of the United States. During his campaign, he began to criticize Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Yemen’s civil war, despite the U.S. tradition of close ties with Saudi Arabia since Kissinger. And, because the Saudi crown prince (allegedly) sent a killer to Turkey to kill, dismember and dismember Jamal Khashoggi, an American media personality of Saudi nationality, inside the Saudi consulate in Turkey, Biden said, the Saudi government It is a “barbaric government” (pariah state). He was on the moral high ground, but he angered Crown Prince Mohammed.
Saudi Arabia is definitely the leader of the oil-producing countries in the Middle East, and Biden, because of his firm belief in American values, did not hesitate to insult Saudi Arabia, who is likely to be the leader of the next half century, even though Saudi Arabia is an important ally of the United States in the Middle East. The cornerstone of the petrodollar. He has been in the American diplomatic circle for decades to do such a stupid thing, we don’t know what he thinks.
Biden: America is not as strong as you think
When a burly man is strutting down the street, he won’t make way for other passersby – he trusts others to let him. A person who is accustomed to being the boss will naturally believe that as long as he shouts from the top, other people will respond positively, either in fear of his prestige or in order to please him. If such a boss offends someone, he doesn’t care, because when he appeals to someone he offends, he still thinks that person should support him. This is the mentality of the strongman, and it is also the posture of Biden. After he came to power, he claimed: the United States is back, and clearly declared that the opponents of the United States are Russia and China, and he will unite allies to compete and confront these two countries. His self-confidence is amazing. The Jews have a proper term to describe this kind of self-confidence, called chutzpah (the Chinese may be translated as arrogant and thick-skinned).
Looking back, everyone will find that Nixon was not so arrogant. In order to fight the Cold War with the Soviet Union, he accepted Kissinger’s suggestion and united China to control the Soviet Union. Carter was not so arrogant either. He accepted Bresinsky’s suggestion and united with bin Laden’s al-Qaeda, China, Iran, Pakistan and other countries to drive the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan, which became an important factor leading to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Please note that these are countries and organizations that are outside of NATO allies and are not friendly or even hostile to the United States in the first place. Now, Biden is different. He wants to start with strength and deal with the two nuclear powers, China and Russia, at the same time. Not only that, but he also put on a lofty attitude towards countries other than NATO, Japan, South Korea and other allies! It means, you must follow me obediently, or I will punish you! You say, is this too arrogant?
As soon as Biden came up, he said that during his tenure, the task of the United States was to confront and compete with China and Russia. This was his most fundamental strategic mistake. Not only did he make this strategic mistake, he also rejected many countries that were originally on the side of the United States.
Ukraine War: The Graveyard of Hegemony
In 2008, at the NATO summit, the issue of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO was raised again. The United States strongly supported it, but it was opposed by Germany and France. Therefore, the then NATO Secretary General The compromise is that the two countries become candidate NATO members and will eventually join in the future.
During his tenure as vice president, Biden firmly supported Ukraine’s entry into NATO. After becoming president, he naturally pushed hard for it. It can be seen that, in his strategic vision, Ukraine is the front line of his ideological struggle—the struggle between democracy and authoritarian politics—a direct challenge to Putin’s red line and a focus for crushing Russia. Beginning in October last year, Putin assembled a large number of troops on the border of Ukraine, and then in mid-December submitted a note to NATO not to allow Ukraine to join NATO, requesting an answer as soon as possible. Biden did not hesitate to reject Putin’s request.
Many people say that Putin’s attack on Ukraine is in Biden’s favor, saying that Putin fell into Biden’s trap, because Biden wants to use Putin’s aggression and the turmoil in Europe to return the dollar and solve the serious inflation and high debt in the United States. difficulty. However, the most realistic statement should be that Biden is too aggressive, and extremes will reverse. There is a good term in English called blowback. You can say that Putin fell into Biden’s trap, or that Putin has already planned to launch a counterattack against NATO’s eastward expansion. In short, the Russian-Ukrainian war started on February 24. There is no turning back when the bow is opened, and the world pattern will change from now on.
Biden clearly overestimated the influence of the United States and underestimated his opponents. He did not expect that most of the world’s 88% of the population did not follow him, but instead participated in Putin’s counterattack – albeit passively.
This is a bad cause, and the bad result is that
Biden is not willing to fight a nuclear war with Russia. Therefore, when Putin launched a special military operation against Ukraine, he used extreme financial sanctions as a countermeasure. This extreme sanction also hurts the vast majority of countries in the world, forcing them to pay the price. It seems that Biden simply fails to consider a fundamental question: Will these countries be willing to pay such a price for a power struggle among white people?
Just imagine, if Putin does not have Xi Jinping behind him now, will he still be able to resist Biden’s extreme financial sanctions while fighting the Russian-Ukrainian war? of course not. So, may I ask why, after Biden took office, he clearly knew that Trump’s trade war with China was a failure, because the burden on the United States was 90%, and the burden on China was less than 10%, and the trade war aggravated the inflation pressure in the United States. Why hasn’t Trump’s increased tariffs on China been lifted to improve relations with China?
Not only did he not cancel the tariffs, he continued to increase the price! Because he wants to challenge Russia and China at the same time! This is really insane. this is one.
Second, Obama spent his best efforts to unite European allies and China and Russia to reach a nuclear ban agreement with Iran. As the second-in-command of Obama’s team, this is also his achievement. But Trump abolished it! So, after Biden takes office, shouldn’t he immediately slap Trump in the face and rejoin the agreement immediately? However, he didn’t. He also wanted to reap some benefits from Iran. The results of it? Iran ignored it and instead signed a 25-year long-term cooperation agreement with China.
After the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, Biden suddenly found that even his European allies would not stop buying Russian oil and gas. You know, cutting off Russia’s overseas financial resources is the key to the success of the sanctions. But, even for European countries, the United States cannot dissuade them from sending money to Russia! In other words, the sanctions are actually in the hands of their own people! This is another example of reckless behavior after Biden took office, and it is also a deadly example. At this time, he began to look around for alternative energy producers to Russia, and he thought of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Unfortunately, he and Trump have all these countries offended. Naturally, these countries have closed the door for Biden!
Why didn’t he think that if he wanted to sanction Russia, he should win over oil-producing countries early on? Biden seems to think that all he has to do is win over the white world, his European and Asian allies, to defeat Putin. He does not need countries with different skin colors, countries with different religious beliefs, and countries with different political systems to sanction Russia with him. Does he think that these countries will automatically follow up? Too much wishful thinking! This is three.
The most interesting is Venezuela. The United States sent its deputy secretary of state to negotiate with Maduro about buying oil from Venezuela. However, the United States does not even recognize the Maduro government, so how can we start? The United States must first give up recognizing the non-existent Guaido government, then re-recognize Maduro’s government, and lift all sanctions on Maduro’s government before Venezuela can increase oil production. In other words, the United States is stuck with its own past hegemony.
It is worth noting, and extremely important, that almost all countries of color, including regional powers such as Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and South Africa, refuse to sanction Russia. We can clearly see that the vast world, once enslaved, colonized and exploited by the West, does not support Biden’s sanctions. Although they do not actively support Russia, their passive resistance to sanctions is not trivial. Whether they are consciously protesting against the violence against them in the West for five hundred years, or whether they are just taking advantage of the self-killing among white people to protect themselves and benefit from it, we have no idea. In short, they passively participated in Putin’s counterattack.
Protracted war = war of attrition
Although the Western media is still whitewashing the peace, as if Russia has been miserable under sanctions, Biden and his team know that his ultimate sanctions have failed. When Putin’s ruble settlement order was issued, the value of the ruble retraced, the EU was in conflict, and some countries began to use the ruble to buy natural gas, and the sanctions collapsed. Sanctions are ineffective when several major oil-producing countries refuse to increase production. When China’s UnionPay credit cards replaced VISA and MASTER cards, the sanctions became self-harm. When the vast majority of non-white countries do not sanction Russia, sanctions are doomed to fail.
Sanctions failed, what to do? Biden hurriedly increased aid to Ukraine, hoping that Ukraine would defeat Russia on the battlefield, so he joined NATO countries to greatly expand military aid to Ukraine.
With a large amount of aid, Zelensky’s tone has also changed. He is no longer seeking peace, and he wants to recover the lost ground. So, from May, the protracted war began.
There is a lot of discussion on the Internet, and there is no consensus, but most of them believe that Russia wants a quick solution, and the United States wants to fight a protracted war, so that Russia will be mired in the mire and give it a second Afghanistan. However, there is an argument on the Internet that does not think so. The name of the argument cannot be examined, but it is quite insightful. I will introduce it as follows.
Putin’s plan, it said, was to fight a protracted war by crippling Ukraine and putting Europe and the United States in charge of the lives of Ukraine’s internally displaced people and the five million refugees in exile in Europe, while maintaining Ukrainian society as a whole. (Zelensky’s price is $600 billion a year; the IMF estimates that the Ukrainian government needs $5 billion a month to function properly), plus an endless supply of arms that are constantly being depleted on the battlefield , which is a very heavy burden. One or two months is fine, but in one, two years or more, Europe will inevitably be overwhelmed and fall into a quagmire deeper and bigger than Russia. Don’t just listen to the US media’s propaganda about how the EU is united. NATO continues to expand. Over time, when the general public starts to protest collectively, the upper-level elites in Europe will also have infighting and split with the United States. Only by completely depleting the EU to negative growth, and until NATO is divided, can Putin achieve the goal of overthrowing the US hegemony.
Russia is a country with large resources. It can be self-sufficient in food and energy, and other consumer goods in life can be supplied by China, India, Turkey and other countries. On May 13, Putin held a video conference in Moscow. He announced that Russia produced 130 million tons of grain, a record, with a budget surplus of 2.6 trillion rubles (about 37.1 billion U.S. dollars), and foreign trade revenue increased significantly. While sanctions will certainly hurt Russia’s economy, in three years or more, it will be Europe that will be ruined by a protracted war. Russia’s economy is strong enough to support it for several years of war – it can support the division of the European Union and the collapse of NATO.
All Putin needs to do is to continue to crippling Ukraine and make European countries fall into a bottomless pit of consumption. History tells us that Europeans have always fought to the point of exhaustion, because they only overweight and don’t know how to stop.
Counterattack the United States
As mentioned above, Putin has launched a counterattack against the United States, and he has received passive support from the vast majority of countries of color. These countries, because they need to import products such as energy, food and fertilizers from Russia, should be willing to join a settlement system that Russia is discussing through the Eurasian Economic Union dominated by it and the SCO countries dominated by China to establish a settlement system that is completely independent of SWIFT. It is entirely possible for this system to be joined by oil-producing countries in the Middle East and ten ASEAN countries, and possibly all or most of the more than 130 countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. In this way, the influence of SWIFT will be cut in half, and the ability of the United States to sanction countries will also be greatly reduced.
What Biden did not expect was that in the white world, although he isolated Russia, the wider world, behind Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and other countries, launched a counterattack against the United States and the dollar system.
The EU has 27 member states and NATO has 30 member states. They each have their own interests and historical grievances. Once the Russian-Ukrainian war drags on for two or three years, they will continue to endure Zelensky’s inaction. Endless demands and accusations? Can they still be united under the American baton? Especially after Biden himself said goodbye to the White House? Therefore, when Russia can survive, the split of Europe will be a high probability.
Europe collapsed and America became an island. Don’t forget that at home, the United States is facing many difficult problems, and the Republican Party will inevitably launch a counterattack against the Democratic Party on these problems. International counterattacks, coupled with domestic counterattacks, the collapse of the US hegemony should also be a high probability.
Therefore, if a nuclear war does not break out, when the white world is killing each other, the Asian powers will usher in a period of huge strategic opportunity. If we can make good use of it, then the new world order will beckon us. It can be guessed that the most important thing for Asian powers to do is to ensure that Russia’s economy will not collapse before NATO splits. This is of course also for self-preservation, because if NATO is not dissolved, it will flood Asia like a flood. This is absolutely unwilling to see in Asia.
普京逆襲積重難返的美國 作者：水秉和 5/22/22
我曾經指出，烏克蘭政變是副總統拜登，在接受了總統奧巴馬的命令後，親自負責執行的任務。在2017年的自傳《答應我，爸爸》一書中，他就提到積極參與烏克蘭事務的經過（當然沒有說他主導了政變）。拜登因此跟烏克蘭有深厚的關係。紐蘭（Victoria Nuland），當時主管歐洲事務的助理國務卿，是直接參與廣場運動的美國官員，而紐蘭的老公是一位名叫凱根（Robert Kagan）的智庫大佬，被人稱之爲新保守主義教父。這位大佬是小布什團隊的國師，他通過副總統錢尼，國防部長羅斯菲爾德和其他一批在國防部，國務院和智庫中的信徒，包括他的夫人紐蘭，和希拉莉以及現在的拜登，確立了美國自2001年以來實行的新保守主義政策。
2016年，川普意外地擊敗了希萊莉，進入白宮。他上臺後又種下了幾個因。第一，他退出了伊朗禁核協議；第二，他跟中國打貿易戰；第三，他試圖顛覆委内瑞拉合法選出的馬杜羅（Nicolas Maduro）政府，未遂，但是他卻徑自承認了反對派領袖瓜伊多(Juan Guaido)爲該國的合法總統。
2020年，拜登擊敗川普，成爲美國第四十六任總統。在他競選期間，他不顧美國自基辛格以來對沙特保持緊密關係的傳統，開始批評沙特介入也門内戰。并且，因爲沙特王儲（被指控）派遣殺手到土耳其，在沙特駐土耳其領事館内殺死，肢解并毀尸滅跡一名沙特籍的美國媒體人卡舒吉(Jamal Khashoggi)，拜登說，沙特政府是“野蠻政府”（pariah state）。他是站在道德高地，但是他因此惹怒了王儲默罕默德。
One response to “Putin counterattacks the hard-to-return America by Shui Binghe”
Very well said. I’m in agreement with almost all your conclusions. The Ukraine war is almost certainly the curtain call for the western age of Colonisation and war.
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