Current Affairs Observation Yu Fei video: What did you see from Scholz’s visit to China? Germany is complex, not one-sided, and at the same time there is room for wrestling 時事觀察 余非：從朔爾茨訪華看見些甚麼？德國複雜、非一面倒，同時存在可角力的空間

German Chancellor Scholz (or Schotz) visited China, the news content should be known to everyone, and the significance of this episode will be discussed.

On November 4, China issued an invitation, and Scholz led a business delegation to visit China. Among them are 12 large German companies, and many of them have CEOs themselves. The significance of Scholz’s trip has been analyzed by many critics. Among them, many current commentators are optimistic that Germany will no longer pursue a new Cold War approach with the United States; they even believe that the European pragmatists will win; moreover, French President Emmanuel Macron will also visit China later, so France and Germany can join forces against the United States and jointly seek European independence. independent. However, in the short-term, and even the mid-line, is it that simple? Below is the analysis.

I also think Scholz’s visit to China is a brilliant move after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. China finally issued an invitation after Scholz resisted the objections of the heads of several departments and made the decision that Chinese capital could take a stake in the Port of Hamburg. Scholz successfully led a business team to visit China. For him, it was a self-help method for Germany’s domestic economic downturn and the relocation of industrial production. Scholz’s popularity has fallen to a new low, he has no choice, he must seize the locomotive of China’s economic development. The Sino-German economy is not decoupling, and the significance is of course positive! However, what impact does Scholz’s visit to China have on Europe in general? And will it increase the strength of Europe’s resistance to the United States? To make a judgment, it is necessary to read other levels of information for comparison. According to the division of labor in the contemporary government, a prime minister is not a strong prime minister, but a parliament and a cabinet that govern jointly, and the entire country can act differently in economic, diplomatic, and military aspects, and each has its own way.

From the perspective of Europe, the big news surrounding Europe and even the EU recently is the signing of the “European Sky Shield Initiative”. On October 13, Germany took the lead, 14 NATO members, plus Finland, which is still not a member of NATO, a total of 15 countries, sent their defense ministers or high-level representatives, and signed the “European Sky Shield Initiative”. air defense system. 14 NATO members, including many pro-American Eastern European factions in the EU. The most peculiar thing about this alliance is that there is neither France nor Poland in this alliance.

On the day the document was signed, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht told the media that the weapons to be used in the jointly built air defense system include Israel’s Arrow 3 and the US Patriot system. And the German “IRIS-T SLM air defense system”. ——After reading this, did you notice anything special? I noticed that mostly American weapons were used. Among them, the Israeli “Arrow 3” was jointly developed by Israel and the American Boeing Company. In other words, 15 countries in Europe have handed over part of their national defense powers to the United States through a bridge from Germany. My understanding is that this initiative is not as simple as arms sales. It is about 15 countries establishing a common air defense system, so when manufacturing and operating the Sky Shield, they will report part of their national defense data to this system—that is, the United States and the United States. Israel. And this system, although including Germany, is dominated by American weapons. On the contrary, France, another major arms-producing country in Europe, is not included.

As we all know, on October 25, French time, Macron and Scholz held a luncheon at the Elysée Palace in Paris. Before entering the venue, they were friendly to each other; however, the two sides did not hold a joint press conference after the meeting. Adding in various details, there was a discord between France and Germany at that time. And more than a week before that meal, 15 European countries signed up to the “Sky Shield” initiative, without France.

Therefore, after reading a few more news, you will know that the current political situation in Europe is quite complicated! Although Macron criticized the price of liquefied natural gas in the United States as too high, and Germany’s Scholz decided to invest in the Port of Hamburg and even visited China… However, it seems that these things cannot be simplified to the fact that Europe has turned the tide…. not that simple! There is still a long way to go for the whole of Europe to escape US manipulation.

After reading the above analysis, some people may ask, is it meaningless for Scholz to visit China? And only limited to economic results? Is that so? Not so much!

I have the following opinion. Germany’s current politics is complicated, and Scholz will come to power in December 2021, ushering in a new era of three-party coalition governance. Unlike the past 16 years, Merkel’s party used to be the largest party in the Bundestag, and there was a stable conservative coalition supporting her regime, so Merkel’s decision can be regarded as the decision of the entire German government. That’s not the case with the Scholz government at all. Scholz did not have the power to raise his voice and bring people to heart in Germany, or even in Europe. Therefore, even if the European people begin to realize that it is not good to go with the United States, as far as Germany is concerned, even if they are bombed to the North Stream, they will still not be able to force a relatively one-sided anti-American situation – evidenced by the German Scholz At the same time as the visit to China, the German Ministry of Defense took the lead in building a European sky shield based on American weapons. The wrestling (struggle) between countries and the wrestling in the real world is originally a competition of exploiting loopholes. Precisely with its complexity, but without being one-sided, it is possible to drill in the only space available. China saw the crisis of Germany’s economic downturn and industrial relocation, and prompted Scholz to visit China. Note that the whole thing can be given meaning and definition by the Chinese side.

Scholz can have many topics. He is the first official visit to China since taking office; the first leader of a Western power to visit China after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China; the first leader of an EU country to visit China three years after the epidemic … All of these things are enough to make a big fuss about the Chinese and foreign public opinion fields, thus dampening the anti-China atmosphere in Europe. Please note that diplomatic wrestling and political wrestling is to gain the initiative to create a topic, to say something that is not there, to say it is minor, to say it is major; in short, it is from the virtual, according to one’s own needs. . For German Scholz, what he achieved was an economic gain to save his own political life. And for China, of course, the gains include economic results – for example, to stimulate other European countries that want to do business with China to work harder, because the thin fields are cultivated. In addition, China has also achieved political results. With Scholz as the topic, the international public opinion field can have a lot of room for fermentation.

I think it may be more realistic to interpret the meaning of Scholz’s visit to China in this way.

As for Europe, the future will be full of differences and divisions for a long time, and it will be relatively scattered. The reason for this is not that the European people have not awakened enough, nor that the awakening has not been transmitted to the political level. Scholz’s visit to China and the approval of Chinese capital to invest in the Port of Hamburg are the reflection of the awakening transmitted to the political level. However, this kind of resistance to not go with the United States is still relatively weak. Why is it weaker? This episode talks about Germany, and focuses on Germany as an example—in addition to the reason that Scholz is a coalition ruling regime, it is also because German politicians and even the government are suspected of being infiltrated by major powers. Von der Leyen’s question is too obvious to discuss. It is doubtful whether the German Green Party has external forces and funds involved. Merkel’s mobile phone has been tapped by the US government for a long time, but is it that German technology is not high enough, so it is not as simple as not finding it in time? I think the German Ministry of State Security at the stage when Merkel was wiretapped is most likely untrustworthy. In addition, there have been rumors that many politicians on the stage in Ukraine are dual nationals. Are there many politicians with dual nationalities in Germany? We can’t know for sure, but it’s an extremely important number.

Therefore, Scholz’s visit to China is of course meaningful, but it will not be large enough to indicate that Germany has turned, or even that France and Germany have joined forces against the United States. The reality is more complicated than imagined. However, having said that, as long as the complex reality does not develop to one-sidedness, there is room for fighting, loosening and wrestling. The wrestling is carried out in the gap, thereby expanding the gap. This may be one of the important significance of Scholz’s visit to China.

Summarize before the end of the program: I mentioned just now that France has not joined the Sky Shield, and France’s “not joining” should be related to the current level of mutual trust between Germany and France; there may even be interference from the United States. The United States controlled Germany’s defense and military, but not France. If the military cooperation and alliance between France and Germany are successfully separated, the United States will be happy to see it. The U.S. controlled Germany militarily as a result of World War II; Germany was a defeated Axis power with a large number of U.S. troops stationed there. Poland also did not join the European Sky Shield, but the situation is different from France. Poland is not excluded by the United States, but Poland has become the spokesperson of the United States in the European Union, and the United States and Poland have closer military cooperation, including air defense systems. Poland is now a bit like a thug of the United States. To claim compensation from Germany is to humiliate Germany and stab at the pain point that Germany was an aggressor country in World War II. How could such Poland join the European Sky Shield led by Germany?

So, don’t oversimplify the situation in Europe. If the two major EU countries, France and Germany, are separated from each other, it will be difficult to integrate forces to resist the United States and pursue European independence and independence.

德國總理朔爾茨（或譯蕭茲）訪華，新聞內容大家應該已知大概，本集節目談當中的意義。

11月4日，中國發出邀請，朔爾茨率領商界代表團訪華。當中包括12家德國大企業，不少更是CEO親自出馬。朔爾茨此行的意義即時已有不少評論分析。當中，不少時評樂觀地認為德國不再跟美國行新冷戰路數；甚至認為歐洲務實派取勝；更說，稍後法國總統馬克龍也訪華，於是法德可以聯手反美，合力尋求歐洲的自主獨立。然而，在短線、乃至中線而言，事情就如此簡單嗎？以下是分析。

我也認為朔爾茨訪華，是中共二十大結束後一次亮麗的出手。中國最終發出邀請，是朔爾茨力抗多個部門首長的反對，一力承擔、拍板中資可以入股漢堡港之後的事。朔爾茨成功帶領商業團隊訪華，對他來說，是德國國內經濟下行、工業生產外移的自救方法。朔爾茨的民望跌至新低，他沒得揀，必須抓緊中國這部經濟發展的火車頭。中德經濟不脫勾，意義當然是正面的！然而，朔爾茨訪華對歐洲總體上有何影響？以及會否令歐洲抗美的力量加大？要作出判斷，必須兼讀其他層面的訊息以對照。按當代政府工作的分工，一個不是強勢的總理，處於一個聯合執政的議會和內閣，整個國家在經濟、外交、軍事幾方面，行動可以不太一致，各有各做。

站在歐洲的角度，近日環繞歐洲、乃至歐盟的大新聞是「歐洲天空之盾倡議」的簽署。10月13日，德國牽頭，北約14個成員國，另加仍然不是北約成員的芬蘭，合共15個國家，派出國防部長或高級代表，簽署了「歐洲天空之盾倡議」，15個國家打造共用的防空系統。14個北約成員國，包括不少歐盟內的親美東歐派。當中最特別之處是，這個聯盟沒有法國，也沒有波蘭。

簽署文件當日，德國國防部長蘭布雷特（Christine Lambrecht）對傳媒表示，共建的防空系統會採用的武器，包含以色列的「箭式 3 型 （Arrow 3）」、美國的「愛國者」系統，以及德國的「IRIS-T SLM 防空系統」。——讀到這裏，有沒有留意有何特別？我留意到，用的主要是美國武器。當中以色列「箭式 3 型」，是以色列和美國波音公司聯合研發。換一個說法，即是歐洲有15個國家把自己國防的部份權力，借德國搭橋，移交了給美國。我的理解是這個倡議不是軍火買賣那麼簡單，是15個國家建立共用的防空系統，於是在製造、營運天空之盾時，會將該國部份國防數據呈報予這個系統——即是美國和以色列。而這個系統，固然包括了德國，卻以美國武器為主。反而歐洲另一個武器生產大國——法國，不在其內。

眾所周知，法國時間10月25日，馬克龍和朔爾茨在巴黎愛麗謝宮舉行過一次午餐會。進場前彼此表現得尚算友好；可是，會面後雙方沒有共同舉辦記者會。加上各種細節，當時便傳出法德不和。而吃那頓飯的個多星期前，15個歐洲國家簽署了「天空之盾」倡議，沒有法國份。

所以，稍為多看幾方面的新聞，便知道當前歐洲的政治形勢相當複雜！雖然馬克龍批評美國的液化天然氣價格太高，德國朔爾茨又拍板中資入股漢堡港，甚至訪華……；但是，似乎未至於可以將這些事簡化為是歐洲已轉了風向……。沒那麼簡單！整個歐洲擺脫美國操縱這條路，仍然很漫長。

讀完上面的分析，有人或者會問，那朔爾茨訪華，是不是沒甚意義呢？而且只局限在經濟方面的成果？是不是這樣呢？又不至於此！

我有以下看法。德國當前的政治很複雜，朔爾茨在2021年12月上台，開啟了三黨聯合執政的新時期。跟過去16年不同，從前默克爾所屬的政黨是聯邦議院第一大黨，有一個穩健的保守派聯盟支持她的政權，於是默克爾的決定，可以視為是整個德國政府的決定。朔爾茨政府完全不是這種狀況。朔爾茨對德國國內，乃至歐洲，沒有登高一呼、萬眾歸心的力量。於是，即使歐洲民眾開始覺察跟美國走沒好處，就以德國而言，即使炸到去北溪管導，卻仍然逼不出一個比較一面倒的反美局面——證之於德國朔爾茨訪華之同時，德國國防部牽頭，打造一個以美國武器為主的歐洲天空之盾。國與國之間的角力（鬥爭）、真實世界的角力，本來就是一種鑽空子的比拚。正正是有其複雜性、但又未至於一面倒，於是可以在僅有的空間進行鑽營。中國就是看準了德國經濟下行、工業外移的危機，促成朔爾茨訪華——注意，整件事，可以由中國方面賦予意義和定義。

朔爾茨身上可以有很多話題，他是上任以來第一次對中國進行正式訪問；是二十大後首位訪華的西方大國領導人；是疫情三年來第一個訪華的歐盟國家領導人……凡此種種，足以令中外輿論場大做文章，從而挫一挫歐洲的反華氣氛。請注意，外交角力、政治角力，就是取得製造話題的主動權，將一些沒有的說成有，輕微的、說成重大；總之是由虛，按自己需要說成實——這些，就是政治角力。對德國朔爾茨而言，他取得的是經濟成果，用以挽救他本人的政治生命。而對中國而言，取得的固然包括經濟成果——例如，刺激其他想跟中國做生意的歐洲國家要加把勁了，因為瘦田有人耕。此外，中國也取得政治成果——有朔爾茨做話題，國際輿論場可以有很大的發酵空間。

我想，這樣去詮釋朔爾茨訪華的意義，可能會更加真實。

至於歐洲，未來會有一段長時間充滿分歧和分裂，會比較一盤散沙。之所以會如此，不是歐洲民眾未夠覺醒，也不是覺醒未傳導至政治層面——朔爾茨訪華和准許中資入股漢堡港，就是覺醒傳導至政治層面的反映。不過，這種不跟美國走的反抗到現在仍然比較弱。何以會比較微弱呢？本集談德國，就集中以德國為例——除了朔爾茲那個是聯合執政政權這個原因，還因為德國的政客、乃至政府內部疑似被大國滲透。馮德萊恩的問題太明顯了，不用再談。德國綠黨有沒有外部力量及資金介入，值得懷疑。默克爾的手機被美國政府長期竊聽，只是德國科技不夠高，因此未能及時發現那麼簡單嗎？我認為默克爾被竊聽那階段的德國國安部，極可能已不可信。此外，已有傳聞說烏克蘭台面上的政客不少都是雙重國籍，德國雙重國籍的政客多嗎？我們不可能知清楚，但這是個極之重要的數字。

因此，朔爾茨訪華當然是有意義的，但不會大到表示德國已轉向，甚至是法德聯手反美那種意義。現實比想像中複雜。不過，話說回來，只要複雜的現實未發展至一面倒，就有可以爭取、鬆動和角力的空間。角力，是在縫隙中進行，從而將裂口擴大。這，可能才是朔爾茨訪華重要意義之一。

節目結束前做總結：剛才提過，法國沒有加入天空之盾，法國的「沒加入」，應該與當前德法互信程度出問題有關；乃至可能存在美國的干擾。美國控制了德國的國防及軍事，卻控制不了法國。如果成功離間法德在軍事上的合作和同盟，會是美國樂見。而美國在軍事上控制德國，是二戰的結果；德國是戰敗的軸心國，有大量美軍駐扎。波蘭也沒有加入歐洲天空之盾，不過情況跟法國不同。波蘭不是被美國排斥，反而是波蘭已經成為美國在歐盟的代言人，美國和波蘭有更密切的軍事合作，包括防空系統。波蘭現在有點像是美國的打手，向德國索償是羞辱德國，刺德國在二戰是侵略國這個痛點。這樣的波蘭，又怎會加入由德國做領頭人的歐洲天空之盾呢？

所以，別把歐洲的情況簡單化。法德兩個歐盟大國如果離心離得，根本很難整合出反抗美國、追求歐洲自主獨立的力量。