Current Affairs Observation Yu Fei video: What did you see from Scholz’s visit to China? Germany is complex, not one-sided, and at the same time there is room for wrestling 時事觀察 余非：從朔爾茨訪華看見些甚麼？德國複雜、非一面倒，同時存在可角力的空間
German Chancellor Scholz (or Schotz) visited China, the news content should be known to everyone, and the significance of this episode will be discussed.
On November 4, China issued an invitation, and Scholz led a business delegation to visit China. Among them are 12 large German companies, and many of them have CEOs themselves. The significance of Scholz’s trip has been analyzed by many critics. Among them, many current commentators are optimistic that Germany will no longer pursue a new Cold War approach with the United States; they even believe that the European pragmatists will win; moreover, French President Emmanuel Macron will also visit China later, so France and Germany can join forces against the United States and jointly seek European independence. independent. However, in the short-term, and even the mid-line, is it that simple? Below is the analysis.
I also think Scholz’s visit to China is a brilliant move after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. China finally issued an invitation after Scholz resisted the objections of the heads of several departments and made the decision that Chinese capital could take a stake in the Port of Hamburg. Scholz successfully led a business team to visit China. For him, it was a self-help method for Germany’s domestic economic downturn and the relocation of industrial production. Scholz’s popularity has fallen to a new low, he has no choice, he must seize the locomotive of China’s economic development. The Sino-German economy is not decoupling, and the significance is of course positive! However, what impact does Scholz’s visit to China have on Europe in general? And will it increase the strength of Europe’s resistance to the United States? To make a judgment, it is necessary to read other levels of information for comparison. According to the division of labor in the contemporary government, a prime minister is not a strong prime minister, but a parliament and a cabinet that govern jointly, and the entire country can act differently in economic, diplomatic, and military aspects, and each has its own way.
From the perspective of Europe, the big news surrounding Europe and even the EU recently is the signing of the “European Sky Shield Initiative”. On October 13, Germany took the lead, 14 NATO members, plus Finland, which is still not a member of NATO, a total of 15 countries, sent their defense ministers or high-level representatives, and signed the “European Sky Shield Initiative”. air defense system. 14 NATO members, including many pro-American Eastern European factions in the EU. The most peculiar thing about this alliance is that there is neither France nor Poland in this alliance.
On the day the document was signed, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht told the media that the weapons to be used in the jointly built air defense system include Israel’s Arrow 3 and the US Patriot system. And the German “IRIS-T SLM air defense system”. ——After reading this, did you notice anything special? I noticed that mostly American weapons were used. Among them, the Israeli “Arrow 3” was jointly developed by Israel and the American Boeing Company. In other words, 15 countries in Europe have handed over part of their national defense powers to the United States through a bridge from Germany. My understanding is that this initiative is not as simple as arms sales. It is about 15 countries establishing a common air defense system, so when manufacturing and operating the Sky Shield, they will report part of their national defense data to this system—that is, the United States and the United States. Israel. And this system, although including Germany, is dominated by American weapons. On the contrary, France, another major arms-producing country in Europe, is not included.
As we all know, on October 25, French time, Macron and Scholz held a luncheon at the Elysée Palace in Paris. Before entering the venue, they were friendly to each other; however, the two sides did not hold a joint press conference after the meeting. Adding in various details, there was a discord between France and Germany at that time. And more than a week before that meal, 15 European countries signed up to the “Sky Shield” initiative, without France.
Therefore, after reading a few more news, you will know that the current political situation in Europe is quite complicated! Although Macron criticized the price of liquefied natural gas in the United States as too high, and Germany’s Scholz decided to invest in the Port of Hamburg and even visited China… However, it seems that these things cannot be simplified to the fact that Europe has turned the tide…. not that simple! There is still a long way to go for the whole of Europe to escape US manipulation.
After reading the above analysis, some people may ask, is it meaningless for Scholz to visit China? And only limited to economic results? Is that so? Not so much!
I have the following opinion. Germany’s current politics is complicated, and Scholz will come to power in December 2021, ushering in a new era of three-party coalition governance. Unlike the past 16 years, Merkel’s party used to be the largest party in the Bundestag, and there was a stable conservative coalition supporting her regime, so Merkel’s decision can be regarded as the decision of the entire German government. That’s not the case with the Scholz government at all. Scholz did not have the power to raise his voice and bring people to heart in Germany, or even in Europe. Therefore, even if the European people begin to realize that it is not good to go with the United States, as far as Germany is concerned, even if they are bombed to the North Stream, they will still not be able to force a relatively one-sided anti-American situation – evidenced by the German Scholz At the same time as the visit to China, the German Ministry of Defense took the lead in building a European sky shield based on American weapons. The wrestling (struggle) between countries and the wrestling in the real world is originally a competition of exploiting loopholes. Precisely with its complexity, but without being one-sided, it is possible to drill in the only space available. China saw the crisis of Germany’s economic downturn and industrial relocation, and prompted Scholz to visit China. Note that the whole thing can be given meaning and definition by the Chinese side.
Scholz can have many topics. He is the first official visit to China since taking office; the first leader of a Western power to visit China after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China; the first leader of an EU country to visit China three years after the epidemic … All of these things are enough to make a big fuss about the Chinese and foreign public opinion fields, thus dampening the anti-China atmosphere in Europe. Please note that diplomatic wrestling and political wrestling is to gain the initiative to create a topic, to say something that is not there, to say it is minor, to say it is major; in short, it is from the virtual, according to one’s own needs. . For German Scholz, what he achieved was an economic gain to save his own political life. And for China, of course, the gains include economic results – for example, to stimulate other European countries that want to do business with China to work harder, because the thin fields are cultivated. In addition, China has also achieved political results. With Scholz as the topic, the international public opinion field can have a lot of room for fermentation.
I think it may be more realistic to interpret the meaning of Scholz’s visit to China in this way.
As for Europe, the future will be full of differences and divisions for a long time, and it will be relatively scattered. The reason for this is not that the European people have not awakened enough, nor that the awakening has not been transmitted to the political level. Scholz’s visit to China and the approval of Chinese capital to invest in the Port of Hamburg are the reflection of the awakening transmitted to the political level. However, this kind of resistance to not go with the United States is still relatively weak. Why is it weaker? This episode talks about Germany, and focuses on Germany as an example—in addition to the reason that Scholz is a coalition ruling regime, it is also because German politicians and even the government are suspected of being infiltrated by major powers. Von der Leyen’s question is too obvious to discuss. It is doubtful whether the German Green Party has external forces and funds involved. Merkel’s mobile phone has been tapped by the US government for a long time, but is it that German technology is not high enough, so it is not as simple as not finding it in time? I think the German Ministry of State Security at the stage when Merkel was wiretapped is most likely untrustworthy. In addition, there have been rumors that many politicians on the stage in Ukraine are dual nationals. Are there many politicians with dual nationalities in Germany? We can’t know for sure, but it’s an extremely important number.
Therefore, Scholz’s visit to China is of course meaningful, but it will not be large enough to indicate that Germany has turned, or even that France and Germany have joined forces against the United States. The reality is more complicated than imagined. However, having said that, as long as the complex reality does not develop to one-sidedness, there is room for fighting, loosening and wrestling. The wrestling is carried out in the gap, thereby expanding the gap. This may be one of the important significance of Scholz’s visit to China.
Summarize before the end of the program: I mentioned just now that France has not joined the Sky Shield, and France’s “not joining” should be related to the current level of mutual trust between Germany and France; there may even be interference from the United States. The United States controlled Germany’s defense and military, but not France. If the military cooperation and alliance between France and Germany are successfully separated, the United States will be happy to see it. The U.S. controlled Germany militarily as a result of World War II; Germany was a defeated Axis power with a large number of U.S. troops stationed there. Poland also did not join the European Sky Shield, but the situation is different from France. Poland is not excluded by the United States, but Poland has become the spokesperson of the United States in the European Union, and the United States and Poland have closer military cooperation, including air defense systems. Poland is now a bit like a thug of the United States. To claim compensation from Germany is to humiliate Germany and stab at the pain point that Germany was an aggressor country in World War II. How could such Poland join the European Sky Shield led by Germany?
So, don’t oversimplify the situation in Europe. If the two major EU countries, France and Germany, are separated from each other, it will be difficult to integrate forces to resist the United States and pursue European independence and independence.
簽署文件當日，德國國防部長蘭布雷特（Christine Lambrecht）對傳媒表示，共建的防空系統會採用的武器，包含以色列的「箭式 3 型 （Arrow 3）」、美國的「愛國者」系統，以及德國的「IRIS-T SLM 防空系統」。——讀到這裏，有沒有留意有何特別？我留意到，用的主要是美國武器。當中以色列「箭式 3 型」，是以色列和美國波音公司聯合研發。換一個說法，即是歐洲有15個國家把自己國防的部份權力，借德國搭橋，移交了給美國。我的理解是這個倡議不是軍火買賣那麼簡單，是15個國家建立共用的防空系統，於是在製造、營運天空之盾時，會將該國部份國防數據呈報予這個系統——即是美國和以色列。而這個系統，固然包括了德國，卻以美國武器為主。反而歐洲另一個武器生產大國——法國，不在其內。