Singtao Newspaper Yu Fei video with English Transcripts: The bombing incident on the Polish-Ukrainian border reflects that the road to peace talks is full of dangers 星電視快評 – 余非：波烏邊境導彈爆炸事件，反映尋求和談之路滿佈凶險

This episode quickly reviews the November 15th missile bombing in Poland. From the day of the explosion to the 16th of the next day, the world rode a roller coaster of terror. How dangerous is this? The whole world, especially the people of Europe, seemed to be circling on the edge of a cliff, and fell into the abyss if they were not careful. It was good luck not to fall.

The missile explosion on the Polish-Ukrainian border was old news a few days ago. There have been many reports on the incident. The basic fact is that two Poles were killed, and the debris reflected a Russian-made missile. The quick review of this episode focuses on some key points in the fermentation process of the incident.

The missile explosion occurred on the afternoon of November 15th, European time. The afternoon in Europe is the night in Asia, and even the early morning of November 16th. There is a six or seven hour difference between Poland and Asia.

Based on various reports, after the incident, Polish President Duda immediately had phone calls with the leaders of the United States, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and NATO. That is to say, after a busy round on the 15th, Biden, who had a conversation with Xi Jinping for more than three hours, had to take over a hot bomb thrown by Poland that night, not a hot potato.

First, pay attention to a premise that the missile landed in Poland below the Polish-Ukrainian border; it was not inland where Poland is farther away from Ukraine. And what Polish President Duda did immediately: first, he immediately called the Secretary-General of the United States, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and NATO to raise the tone to a very high level; Several meetings, and more importantly, Poland immediately raised the combat readiness level of its military units, pulling Poland to a state of readiness as if it was ready to go to war; third, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately summoned the Russian ambassador to Poland. ——The above is the real-time operation in Poland.

Audience friends, Poland and Ukraine are well aware that Ukraine still has a certain amount of Soviet-made ammunition; the meaning of whether the missile fragments are Russian-made or Soviet-made is completely different! The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately summoned the Russian ambassador to Poland and asked for an explanation. Although this action was justified, it was like cleverly providing ammunition for the anti-Russian countries and the world media. “. Anti-Russian rhetoric was indeed immediately expressed in the Baltic and some Central European countries. On the night of the 15th, NATO also immediately stated that it would hold an emergency meeting. Because as a NATO member Poland, if it is attacked by Russia, NATO will go to war against Russia.

On the night of the 15th, people across Europe walked in circles on the edge of the cliff. Once NATO and Russia-hating European countries, especially those in the Baltic region with military strength, find an excuse to intervene, the scale of the war in Europe will certainly not be the scale of the current Russia-Ukraine war. It’s really hard for me to read this as normal international news. The operation in it, different countries have their own ghosts, thinking about it is also full of dangers, and it is extremely scary to think about it carefully!

In the more than ten hours after the explosion on the afternoon of the 15th, the “big bosses” of the United States, Britain, and NATO should have a busy round. On the evening of the 15th in Europe, Polish President Duda changed his tone from the height of preparations for war, and instead emphasized that there is no evidence to prove which side launched the missile. The Prime Minister also said: The media should not release unverified information.

By dawn in Asia, on the morning of the 16th, Biden convened an emergency meeting of the G7, which included the heads of NATO. Biden’s key final word on the day was: Judging from the missile trajectory, it is unlikely that it was launched from Russia! Thus, the claim that Russia was responsible only burned for a few hours in Europe. On the 16th, a more astonishing development was claimed by the United States: the missile was launched by Ukraine! Of course, National Security Advisor Sullivan and others added an excuse for Ukraine, saying that the air defense system triggered by intercepting Russian missiles accidentally fired and bombed the Polish border by mistake. However, some European countries who took the opportunity to make a fuss followed Sullivan’s excuse and hyped to set up a no-fly zone in Ukraine. You must know that the establishment of a no-fly zone is also military intervention.

The above are the main points of the content of the event, and the following is my analysis.

The first point is that Biden’s final word is not to help Russia out of the trap. My current affairs observation on Monday has analyzed that because the United States has exceeded its mission, the United States is currently blowing the wind that suggests seeking peace talks. The United States wants to see it and pay it. In particular, we must consider the presidential election two years later, and we must not be dragged into the quagmire by the war. Further expansion of the Russo-Ukraine war is harmful to the United States. Therefore, the United States will expose that Russia did not do it. However, in various speeches made by the United States on the 16th, it still emphasized the need to provide military assistance to Ukraine. That is, the Biden administration must work hard to maintain and limit the battlefield within Ukraine. It is not an option for the Biden administration to spread to Poland, or even to directly end the United States and NATO.

The second point is that after Biden made his final decision on the morning of the 16th, Poland, which initially asked Russia to explain, has completely changed its words. On the 16th, it also told the media: “Last night” two missiles hit a village on the Polish border, ” Very likely” was from Ukraine. However, according to various indications, it was not a deliberate attack. Will everyone be suspicious? It is impossible for the Polish military that was attacked to have the information that night about the missile track that Biden said. As I said earlier, the United States and Poland have a lot of military cooperation, and even Poland does not need to join the German-led Sky Shield, because it will conduct air defense cooperation with the United States alone.

My analysis is that Ukraine fired missiles. Will there be some kind of tacit understanding between Poland and Ukraine? ——I don’t mean “collusion”, but “tacit understanding”. It doesn’t necessarily mean that being attacked by Ukraine intentionally is a bitter trick, but is there some kind of trickery after a mistaken shot?

In the current Russian-Ukrainian war, many reports mentioned that a large number of Polish soldiers participated in it. Some estimates even say that Poland has sent no less than 20,000 mercenaries. And obviously, if the war turns to a negotiated approach, Poland will not get the fat he wants. As early as more than four months after the start of the war, in the first ten days of the 7th, Zelensky submitted to Congress a draft law giving Poland a “special status”; the full name of the bill is “Law and Social Security for Polish Citizens Living in Ukraine”. The bill grants Poles legal residence in Ukraine for 18 months, during which they can enjoy the rights to work, education, and medical security; they can even test for Ukrainian civil servant qualifications. There was no further report on whether Zelensky’s bill was passed or how it would be implemented. However, analysis at that time pointed out that if implemented, it would be tantamount to merging Ukraine and Poland. And Poland has always wanted to go south and occupy part of the territory in western Ukraine that once belonged to him.

At the end of the program, I will make a few conclusions: There are two extremely dangerous “key points” in the accidental attack on the Polish border by Ukraine. The first dangerous “key point” is relatively easy to see, that is, the Zelensky regime’s misfire can be a false accusation, using the attack on NATO member states to drag NATO into the water, expanding the war and the battlefield. The second sinister “key point” is the reaction of Poland. Currently, the countries in Europe that have training bases for the Ukrainian Army include the United Kingdom and Poland. Regarding the missile explosion incident, will the Polish regime pretend to be confused (“fraudulently”), pretend not to know, or delay for a few hours to communicate the information about the missile orbit to the outside world, stealing time and inciting Russia-hating countries to make a fuss, making Poland take advantage of the fire? , Fishing in troubled waters…. Poland’s goal is “a tacit understanding” with Ukraine. Both want to pull NATO into the water and expand the war and the battlefield.

Audience friends, the road ahead of the Russia-Ukraine war before the peace talks will be even more confusing and full of risks! The parties who do not want to achieve peace talks will make the final struggle, and they can make wind and rain as they please. On the afternoon of November 15th, the people of Europe really seemed to be turning a circle on the edge of a cliff.

For its own benefit, the United States has opened Pandora’s box in Europe. Now the United States can retreat completely, but all the demons and ghosts that have been released will find what they need in the still chaotic situation.

本集快評談11月15日波蘭的導彈爆炸事件。由爆炸當日至第二天16日，世界坐了一次恐怖過山車。這事有多凶險呢？整個世界、尤其歐洲人民像是在懸崖邊上轉了個圈，一不小心便跌入萬丈深淵。結果沒掉下去是交上好運。
波、烏邊境的導彈爆炸事件算是幾天前的舊聞，事件已有不少報導，基本事實是造成兩名波蘭人死亡，碎片反映是俄製導彈。本集快評集中點出事件發酵過程中的一些重點。
導彈爆炸事件發生在歐洲時間11月15日下午，歐洲的下午是亞洲區的夜晚，乃至11月16日凌晨。波蘭和亞洲相差六、七個小時。
綜合各方報導，事發後波蘭總統杜達立即跟美國、烏克蘭、英國、北約的領導人通電話。即是，15日忙完一大輪，跟習近平對話三小時有多的拜登，當天晚上還得接過波蘭拋過去的一個燙手炸彈，不是燙手山芋。
先留意一個前提，導彈是落在波烏邊境之下的波蘭境內；不是波蘭比較遠離烏克蘭的內陸。而波蘭總統杜達立即做了的事：第一，立即和美、烏，英國及北約秘書長通電話，是將調子拉提到非常高；第二，杜達立即在國內緊急召開國家安全級別的多個會議，更重要的是，波蘭立即提高軍事單位的戰備等級，將波蘭拉到去彷彿準備開戰的待戰狀態；第三，波蘭外交部立即召見俄羅斯駐波蘭大使。——上述就是波蘭的即時操作。
聽眾朋友，波蘭和烏克蘭清楚知道，烏克蘭現時仍擁有一定數量的蘇製彈藥；而導彈碎片屬於俄製、抑或蘇製，意義完全不同！波蘭外交部立即召見俄羅斯駐波蘭大使，要求解釋，這動作固然有他的合理性，可是卻等如巧妙地為反俄國家，以及世界傳媒提供了彈藥，尤其讓國際輿論場發酵是「俄羅斯所為」。波羅的海及一些中歐國家也確實立即發表反俄言論。15日當晚，北約也立即表示要召開緊急會議。因為作為北約成員國波蘭，如果受俄羅斯襲擊，那北約就要向俄羅斯開戰。
15日當晚，整個歐洲的老百姓是在懸崖邊上轉了個圈。一旦北約和仇俄的歐洲國家，尤其是有軍事實力的波羅的海區域的國家找到籍口介入，歐洲地區的戰爭規模一定不是現時俄烏之戰的規模。對我而言，此事真的很難把它當作是普通國際新聞來閱讀。當中的操作，不同國家的各懷鬼胎，想想也充滿凶險，細思極恐！
15日當天下午爆炸發生後的十多個小時內，美、英、北約的「大佬級人馬」應該有一輪忙碌。發展至15日歐洲晚上，波蘭總統杜達已由備戰的高度，轉了口風，改而強調未有證據證明導彈是由哪方面發射的。而總理也說：媒體不宜發放未經證實的訊息。
至亞洲天亮時、16日早上，拜登召開了一個G7緊急會議，會議包括北約負責人。拜登當天關鍵的一錘定音是說：從彈導軌跡看來，不太可能是從俄羅斯發射！於是，認為是俄羅斯所為的說法，只在歐洲燒了幾小時。16日更驚人的發展，是由美國方面聲稱：導彈是烏克蘭發射！當然，國家安全顧問沙利文等為烏克蘭加了個辯解，說是因為攔截俄羅斯導彈而觸發的防空系統誤射，誤炸了波蘭邊境。而乘機起哄的某些歐洲國家則順著沙利文的辯解，炒作要在烏克蘭境內設立禁飛區。要知道設立禁飛區，也是軍事介入。
上面是事件在內容上的要點，以下是我的分析。
第一點，拜登的一錘定音不是想幫俄羅斯解套。我在星期一的時事觀察已分析，美國因為已超額完成任務，所以當前美國吹的是建議尋求和談的風。美國想見好即收。尤其要為兩年後的總統選舉做考慮，不可以被戰爭拖入泥沼。再擴大俄烏戰爭對美國有害無益。因此，美國才會揭穿不是俄羅斯所為。不過，美方在16日的各種發言，仍然強調要軍援烏克蘭。即是，拜登政府要努力將戰場維持及局限在烏克蘭境內。蔓延至波蘭，乃至要美國和北約直接落場，不是拜登政府的選項。
第二點，當16日早上拜登一錘定音之後，一開始要俄羅斯解釋的波蘭已完全改口不但止，在16日當天還對傳媒說：「昨晚」打中波蘭邊境村莊的兩枚飛彈，「非常有可能」是來自烏克蘭。不過由種種跡象看來，並非蓄意攻擊。大家會生疑嗎？拜登口中的導彈軌道，被襲擊的波蘭軍方當晚不可能沒掌握訊息吧。早前已說過，美國和波蘭有很多軍事合作，甚至波蘭不需要加入德國主導的天空之盾，因為會單獨和美國開展防空合作。
我的分析是由烏克蘭射出導彈這事，波蘭和烏克蘭會否存在某種默契？——不是說「合謀」，是「默契」。當中不一定是故意被烏克蘭襲擊是苦肉計，但會否存在某種誤射後的將計就計？
當前的俄烏之戰，不少報導都提及有大量波蘭兵參與其中。有些估計甚至說波蘭已派出不少於二萬人做僱傭兵。而明顯地，如果戰事轉入談判方式，波蘭就得不到他想要的肥肉。早在開戰四個多月後，七日上旬，澤連斯基向國會提交給予波蘭「特殊地位」的法律草案；法案全名是《關於居住在烏克蘭的波蘭公民的法律和社會保障》。該法案賦予波蘭人在烏克蘭合法居留18個月，期間享有工作、教育和醫療保障等方面的權利；甚至可以考烏克蘭公務員資格。當時兵荒馬亂，澤連斯基的法案有沒有通過，以及如何落實，未見有進一步報導。不過，當時已有分析指出，如落實執行，等於將烏克蘭和波蘭合併。而波蘭一直想南下，佔領部份從前曾經屬於他的烏克蘭西部的領土。
節目去到最後做幾句總結：波蘭邊境受烏克蘭誤射襲撃事件存在兩個極之凶險的「關鍵點」。第一個凶險「關鍵點」比較容易見到，就是澤連斯基政權的誤射可以是一次插贓嫁禍，用北約成員國受襲將北約拖落水，令戰事和戰場擴大。第二個凶險「關鍵點」是波蘭的反應。當前歐洲設有訓練烏軍基地的國家，公開的，就包括英國和波蘭。在導彈爆炸事件上，波蘭政權會否透過裝胡塗（「詐懵」），裝作不知道、又或延遲幾小時對外交代導彈軌道方面的訊息，偷時間煽動仇俄國家起閧，令波蘭火中取栗，混水摸魚……。波蘭的目的跟烏克蘭「心有靈犀」，都想拉北約落水，將戰事和戰場擴大。
聽眾朋友，俄烏戰爭在可以和談前的那段路，將會更加蠱惑和充滿風險！不想實現和談的各方，會做最後掙扎，可以搞風搞雨便搞風搞雨。11月15日下午，歐洲人民真的彷如在懸崖邊上轉了個圈。
美國為了自身利益，在歐洲打開了潘多拉魔盒。現在美國可以全身而退，但全部被放出來了的各種妖魔鬼怪，魑魅魍魎，將會在仍然混亂的局面中各取所需。