Video: More inside story of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank from another prospective worth listening 過去三年我不停建意也看到幾百家硅谷公司和數千高科技華人工程師逃離美國返回亞洲, 不少人說我瘋狂, 今天要看看誰是瘋狂! 這些逃離的人多麽幸運.
Bankers have to put up a pretty face as if nothing bad will happen! Because the entire system is built on confidence. If you send a confidence-destroying message, you are damaging your own industry.
However, the signals point to a recession.
1-month yield 4.737%
1-year yield 4.871%
2-year yield 4.593%
10-year yield 3.704%
30-year yield 3.712%
Notice that longer maturity bills pay less interest. This is anomalous, and is called yield curve inversion. You get lower rates for holding bonds longer. That signals the expectation that things will get worse in the future.
Every recession in US history has been prefigured by yield curve inversion. It’s an airtight correlation.
Currently, we are seeing the highest T bill inversion in 40 years.
SVB was not particularly badly invested. T-bills and mbs’s, fairly conservative positions. The hot QE–4T– followed abruptly by 7 successive rate hikes, along with the US’s foolish trade war on China, esp. in the tech industry is to blame. Also to blame is the fact that the CEO of SVB lobbied successfully to have stress tests and breakwaters removed from the banking industry–this is part of the systemic corruption of the US political system.