Is the one night stands worth it, especially for Tsai because Pelosi is not coming back. Real Taiwan crisis is only starting. The impact of the US House speaker’s trip to the island may play out “for years”, Washington Post 一夜情值得嗎,特別是對蔡來說,因為佩洛西不會回來。 真正的台灣危機才剛剛開始。 華盛頓郵報,美國眾議院議長訪問該島的影響可能會持續“多年”
China may avenge Pelosi’s visit – just not how we might think. Here’s why Nancy Pelosi’s visit is such a big deal in Beijing – and how Chinese officials might respond.
With the flick of a pen, Chinese officials could seriously upset the US economy, exacerbate inflation and send Biden’s Democrats packing in this year’s midterm elections, which would also mean dethroning Nancy Pelosi as speaker. It’s anyone’s guess how things progress but this seems the most likely, in my view.
By Bradley Blankenship is an American journalist, columnist and political commentator. He has a syndicated column at CGTN and is a freelance reporter for international news agencies including Xinhua News Agency.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made an unannounced but heavily anticipated landing in Taiwan on Tuesday, plunging US-China relations to a new low. Despite warnings from other top Washington officials, Pelosi has now become the highest-ranking US official to visit the island in 25 years – but the situation is far different now than it was then.
First, it should be recognized how consequential this decision is. For the US, it’s not that big of a deal. Congressional delegations, not just from the US but many Western countries, go to Taiwan frequently. It’s also seen as separate from official US government policy because the legislative branch of government is separate from the executive, which is tasked with managing foreign policy.
In fact, Pelosi noted this in a tweet when she first arrived on the island. “Our visit is one of several Congressional delegations to Taiwan – and it in no way contradicts longstanding United States policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, US-China Joint Communiques and the Six Assurances,” she said.
But China doesn’t see it that way. And that’s because the situation now is far different than 25 years ago when then-house speaker Newt Gingrich visited Taipei. That’s primarily because the then-ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party still maintained the ‘One China’ line, reached under the 1992 Consensus established by the National Unification Council of the Republic of China (official title for what Westerners refer to as Taiwan).
It’s worth remembering briefly how Taiwan as we know it came to be. It was formed during the Chinese Civil War when the ruling KMT fled to China’s Taiwan after being overwhelmed by forces led by the Communist Party of China. The Republic of China is the remnants of the backward, pre-communist government.
That’s why the 1992 line by the ROC recognized itself – not the People’s Republic of China (PRC) – as the legitimate government of the whole of China. It saw itself as a government in exile. However, this line was still admissible by the mainland, e.g., the PRC, because it recognized that there is one China and that Taiwan is a part of China.
It wasn’t until 2019 that current Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen, of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), completely rejected the established 1992 Consensus. That was when things changed and when Beijing started to refer to the Taiwan government under the DPP as “Taiwan independence forces.” It was at this point that an independent “Taiwanese” identity started to emerge.
So, Gingrich’s visit was not seen as a recognition of separatist forces – because the ruling KMT saw itself as de jure rulers of China – and Pelosi’s is seen as an attack on China’s national sovereignty. China also sees the behavior of the administration as tacit approval of this attack on its sovereignty.
First of all, Pelosi took an official US government plane to Taipei which implies an official connection between officials in Taipei and Washington. Estimates put the cost of this trip for US taxpayers at about $90 million dollars. Part of the US’ ‘One China’ pledge is that it will only maintain unofficial ties with Taiwan.
At the same time, the US military – part of the administration – reportedly made plans to protect Pelosi’s plane in any emergency event and, to top it off, both Pelosi and US President Joe Biden are members of the same political party. This only underscores China’s insistence that the administration supports Pelosi’s actions.
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will undoubtedly plunge relations between Beijing and Washington to a new low. “The Taiwan question is the most important and most sensitive issue at the very heart of China-US relations. The Taiwan Strait is facing a new round of tensions and severe challenges, and the fundamental cause is the repeated moves by the Taiwan authorities and the United States to change the status quo,” an official statement by China’s Foreign Ministry says.
The question now is how things progress from here. Tensions are already near a boil. Over speculation of Pelosi’s visit, flights in China’s Fujian province near Taiwan were disrupted, Taiwan’s presidential office was targetted by an overseas DDoS attack and there was even a bomb threat sent to Taiwan’s Taoyuan International Airport. China has since announced a major military drill from August 4-7 that pretty much encircles the entire island of Taiwan and crosses Taiwan’s territorial waters.
It doesn’t appear that the US has planned for anything above military drills or diplomatic statements, and likewise, Beijing doesn’t seem likely to make any sudden, knee-jerk reactions to Pelosi’s visit. Chinese nationalist commentators like Hu Xijin of the Global Times have hinted at immediate military reactions – this appears unlikely.
The saying goes that revenge is a dish best served cold. And China certainly has a lot of time on its hands to let that dish languish, choosing a time and place of its own to react. One thing’s for sure, as Chinese commentators have said, this latest move could easily hasten the eventuality of reunification. There are internal political dynamics that suggest this, too, with public opinion on the mainland firmly in favor of pulling Taiwan back into Beijing’s orbit and President Xi Jinping looking to consolidate his legacy as one of China’s historic leaders.
In the second half of 2022, during the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, he is seeking a third term as the general secretary of the Communist Party of China – or possibly to be elected as the chairman of the Communist Party of China, a position abolished in 1982 and most notably held by Mao Zedong. Reunification, thus permanently ending the Chinese Civil War, would certainly put him among the most important Chinese leaders ever.
In terms of how China will hit back at the main perpetrator – Washington – this will likely be in the realms that it really hurts and where the US is already seeing the most destabilization – the economic and trade spheres. The US supply chain is infinitely intertwined with China and the ongoing trade war between the two sides has already been a major source of inflation.
South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol refuses to meet Pelosi beating the war drums against China in Asia – avoids infuriating China further – after her Taiwan visit sparked military drills, buzzing fighter jets and a promise the U.S. will pay from Beijing. Chip 4 alliance bill just passed, Pelosi met with few semiconductor president and CEO in Taiwan. She wants to do same in Korea. Samsung and hynix don’t want to join and pressuring Yoon. It goes to show how much integrity the leader of Korea has vs Taiwan. 韓國總統尹錫烈拒絕會見佩洛西在亞洲敲響戰鼓-避免進一步激怒中國-在她的台灣訪問引發了軍事演習、嗡嗡作響的戰鬥機以及美國將付出代價
PLA did not attempt to stop me entering Taiwan Province, our attempts to bring proxy war against China in Taiwan FAILED. 解放軍並沒有試圖阻止我進入台灣省,我們在台灣對中國發動代理人戰爭的嘗試失敗了.
NYT: Taiwan will not be more secure or more prosperous as a result of this purely symbolic visit, and a lot of bad things could happen. 紐約時報:台灣不會因為這次純粹象徵性的訪問而變得更安全或更繁榮,而且可能會發生很多不好的事情.
Opinion The damage from Pelosi’s unwise Taiwan visit must be contained Successful foreign policy combines high principle with smart, timely execution. Tuesday’s visit to show solidarity with Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) demonstrated the former — but not the latter. The foreseeable reaction from China, which considers Taiwan a wayward province, is underway — including the announcement of provocative naval live-fire exercises in the island’s territorial waters after Ms. Pelosi’s visit ends. President Biden must limit the short-term damage and counter a likely increase in long-term Chinese pressure on Taiwan.
Of course we share Ms. Pelosi’s strong support for democratic Taiwan, her condemnation of the Chinese communist dictatorship and her belief, as she put it in an op-ed for The Post, that “it is essential that America and our allies make clear that we never give in to autocrats.” What we do not comprehend is her insistence on demonstrating her support in this way, at this time, despite warnings — from a president of her own party — that the geopolitical situation is already unsettled enough. However much the 82-year-old Ms. Pelosi might want a capstone event for her time as speaker — before a likely GOP victory in November ends it — going to Taiwan now, as President Xi Jinping of China is orchestrating his third term, was unwise.
Admittedly, Mr. Biden himself mishandled the situation by blurting out the fact “the military” was against Ms. Pelosi’s visit. This blunder made it harder for Ms. Pelosi to change plans without losing face and, more important, harder for Mr. Xi not to ramp up his response once she decided to go. Far better for the president to have told Ms. Pelosi, privately, personally and unequivocally, not to do it.
The top global priority for the United States now is Russia’s war in Ukraine and its accompanying fallout in global food and energy markets. The Biden administration can ill afford any distractions, much less a repeat of the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, which many Americans have forgotten, but which lasted eight months and two days. It began with Chinese missile firings off Taiwan in retaliation for a symbolic gesture — a visit by Taiwan’s president to Cornell University — and did not ease until after the Clinton administration mounted an enormous deterrent naval deployment
China ultimately backed off. The Biden administration is now in the position of having to hope it can similarly maintain both peace and Taiwan’s territorial integrity against a China that is vastly stronger than it was a quarter-century ago and led not by the cautious Jiang Zemin but by the aggressive Mr. Xi. U.S. officials, and Ms. Pelosi, have communicated that her trip implies no change to the United States’ one-China policy. In a deterrent mode, the president has deployed a carrier group east of Taiwan.
The United States must never sacrifice its principles or cave to Chinese threats. All the more reason to prepare carefully where and when to confront China. No thanks to Ms. Pelosi, the Biden administration finds itself forced to react and improvise instead.
Jessie Khong in Malaysia: Jerry did a great job pointing out how China handled Hong Kong protest in 2019. This makes a lot of sense now.
Now thinking back about it, the US funded protest in 2019 was to provoke China to take military action to help the Hong Kong government and police to defend their city but also they (the US government) failed to bait China into taking military action at all. In the end, the US totally lost absolute control and power to further influence the political governance of Hong Kong in future.
China was able to take back full control of Hong Kong sooner than expected. And now the way China handled this current provocation of the US government is similar and the US government yet again failed to get the Chinese military to attack their own Chinese citizens in Taiwan. What China meant by those playing with fire would get burned is making sense. Those Taiwanese people who betrayed their own people by playing with fire will eventually get burned just like those Hong Kong CIA backed collaborators who are all getting burned
🇺🇸🇨🇳A Chinese battery manufacturer has postponed the construction of a huge factory in the US. The reason is the visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, 佩洛西讓 10,000 個美國人失去工作 writes Bloomberg.
The Chinese company CATL is the world’s largest manufacturer of fuel cells and lithium-ion batteries.
The company was going to start building a giant battery factory for Tesla and Ford electric vehicles.
A $5 billion enterprise would employ 10,000 workers and reduce the cost of manufacturing machines.
Philip Yeung, a university lecturer commented re: Nancy Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan.
I have better travel plans for you, Nancy. Instead of going to Taiwan, why not try visiting the mainland ?
There, you will be greeted by a friendly people, at peace, in prosperity, purpose-driven and surprisingly tech-savvy. Its streets are safe at midnight, and humming with harmony, without a hint of racial hatred or bitter divisions. And the biggest surprise awaiting you: The Chinese are madly in love with their “authoritarian” government. How is that for cognitive dissonance? How’s it working for you with your other half of Congress ? A bad hair day ?
You are a prisoner of your own prejudice and, like your peers, allergic to the truth. What gives you the right to swagger around dictating your warped values when your own country is a moral mess ?
Asia has no room for a quarrelsome grandmother who is overdue for a life watching the sunset.
Taking advantage of the one step America had to take, we took three steps in one night
The first step is to advance the scope of the exercise. We will see it tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. The entire Taiwan Island is surrounded by us for military exercises. This is something that has never happened in 1997 or 2016. I can’t even think about it. 22 At this step of the year, this military encirclement is officially encircled.
Advancement process (from the coast of Fujian in 1997 – to the central line of the Taiwan Strait in 16 years – to Diaoyu Island in the northeast corner of Taiwan in 19 years – then to the northwest corner of Taiwan in 20 years – the military blockade of the whole island was completed on August 4, 2022) This step-by-step strategic deployment goal of nibbling away steadily and steadily has been completed.
The second step is international public opinion. The U.S. interferes with China first, and China’s exercises come later, and neither kills Americans, shoots down planes, nor engages in direct fire with the U.S. military. ‘s mouth. Because our core purpose is the island of Taiwan, not the United States, to take the initiative to open fire on the United States, (at least now is not the time) to achieve the strategic goal of final reunification is the key, dragging the United States in is the last resort! In this way, through the actions of an American, we not only kept the international public opinion in check, but also completed the military encirclement action, and logically drove the American army out of the scope of the exercise. The United States and Japan can only watch us take Taiwan Wrap up military exercises without being able to stop them.
The third step, the most powerful step, is the public opinion! Tonight is a shame. All the platforms are live-streaming the whole process, and finally watching the Americans enter Taiwan to interfere with China’s reunification. This kind of righteous indignation will start to accumulate in the people, and the military reunification is logical, because ordinary people prefer us to shoot missiles. In the past, this is the beauty of this third step. How angry the people are now, how righteous the Wutong will be in the future! correct!
Let’s talk about the United States, whether it comes to Taiwan tonight or in recent years, the People’s Liberation Army will find an opportunity to strategically encircle Taiwan, but it will take a long time, but the United States thinks that since it is a card, then the United States might as well come Come visit and show allies how much they support their little brother. Increases the final value of this card. Make good use of the residual value of the Taiwan card.
But in fact, it is to lengthen the time axis.
From the coast of Fujian in 1997: We were blocked by the US aircraft carrier in the coastal waters of Xiamen, and we have not even been to the middle line of the Taiwan Strait. Our land cannons have to be mounted on ships as naval guns, because there are no large warships!
In 2016, we advanced to the center line of the Taiwan Strait, but the US fleet came again, and we could only walk on the center line.
In the next 20 years, in the northwest corner of Taiwan, we passed through hundreds of planes almost a year. It was also after 16 years that we only had aircraft carriers, stealth fighters, and 055 destroyers, but we also walked to the lower two corners of Taiwan Island.
But today, 22 years ago, taking advantage of this incident, we have blocked the entire island, all US aircraft carriers have been evacuated, and all US stealth military aircraft have been grounded under the pretext.
This is China’s strategic determination, and it seems that the Americans are complacent tonight! Setting foot on Taiwan makes the Chinese people lose face! But in fact, in the military, the United States has retreated and retreated again and again in the past 20 years, and has already withdrawn from the waters within Taiwan. These are the national strategies that the Chinese should see and understand.
For the future, the US aircraft carrier battle group will no longer be able to enter, and the blockade of military exercises around the whole island will become the norm in the future! What does this mean? You are already on my side. It is a matter of time to eat you. The whole island is blocked. It also means that when I hit you, any plane will not want to fly out of Taiwan Island, so Tsai Ing-wen thinks Escape is a dream, Americans, you can only watch from a distance, watch the destruction of the last card
The opportunity to blockade the whole island today was actually given to us by the Americans. Otherwise, we really couldn’t find such a good opportunity, and the United States couldn’t say anything internationally, because you were the one who picked things up and interfered in other countries’ internal affairs.
From August 4, 2022, the whole island will be surrounded by military blockade live ammunition exercises!
So when to eat this piece of meat, I think, it must be very slow, until there is civil strife in Taiwan, then watch the news, when there is civil strife in Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army will go in, this is an opportunity, and the island can give We create it, or we can create it ourselves. Just like the pro-Russian regime in eastern Ukraine a few years ago, Taiwan also needs to give the People’s Liberation Army such a reason, so it won’t be too rushed. What’s more, when the national fortune is rising. If you are in a hurry, you will lose. This is the same as playing Go. You can’t just look at the gains and losses of one piece tonight.
China’s most important strategic focus now is the economy!